PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

ducati916 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

wayneL said:
Anyone who thinks there should be no consternation about the market should read this:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01032007/325/nyse-imposes-trading-curbs-stocks-fall.html

"They" are worried.

They most certainly are. There is something visceral about watching a sea of red engulf paper assets...........your house if it collapses, as long as you like living in it doesn't hurt as much, as long as your neighbor doesn't knock on your door every 30mins to tell you how much the value of the street has dropped

Watching paper assets shrink for 6.5 hrs/day tends to freak people out.

jog on
d998

Kimosabi · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

The US is F^cked

Countrywide Says Late Payments on Subprime Loans Increased

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said borrowers were at least 30 days past due at the end last year on almost a fifth of the subprime loans that it serviced for others.

Delinquencies on ``nonprime'' loans, those made to borrowers whose credit rating fell short of the highest criteria, widened to 19 percent as of Dec. 31 from 15 percent a year earlier, the Calabasas, California-based lender said in an annual regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The rate stood at 17 percent at the end of September, according to the company's last quarterly filing.

Last month, Countrywide gave delinquency rates for its overall loan servicing portfolio that didn't break out each category.

Countrywide collected payments on $1.28 trillion in mortgages that the company and other lenders originated as of Dec. 31, of which $116.3 billion were below prime. The company is the largest subprime mortgage servicer in the U.S., with a 9.7 percent share, according to newsletter Inside B&C Lending.

Subprime loans include mortgages made to borrowers with poor credit ratings or heavy debt burdens. Servicing involves tasks such as billing, collections and record-keeping.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYuBtI1SQAF0&refer=home

You can't tell me that subprime debacle isn't going to unravel the whole US economy, then the rest of the world. It's seems to be feeding off itself. There's apparently $1 Trillion of ARM's that reset this year that a lot of people who have these loans won't be able to afford to repay.

Next we'll see Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies, Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies, Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies...

Luckily most of my money is in Gold or Cash. Super is in Cash, I think I might bounce some money into the Bear Market Fund. The Financial Adviser I saw the other week thought I was crazy when he saw my Super was all in Cash.

The worse thing about the sub-prime debacle, is that the person's mortgage is funded in part by their PENSION fund that invest's in, you guessed it Mortgage Securities, so not only do they loose a stack of money when they default on their Over-Inflated Home-Loan, they will also loose money for years to come on their pension fund that had invested in defaulting Mortgage Securities.

wayneL · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday it removed downside trading curbs as U.S. stocks pared early losses.

The curbs were instituted as stocks plummeted after the opening bell. The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index <.NYA>, which is used to determine when to begin trading curbs, was last down 98.33 points, or 1 percent, at 9026.21. It was down more than 2 percent earlier in the day.

Goldman Sachs has gotten control of the situation on behalf of their client. :

wayneL · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070301/japan_us_greenspan.html?.v=5

AP

Greenspan: U.S. Recession Not 'Probable'
Thursday March 1, 8:15 am ET
Alan Greenspan Says He Doesn't Think Economic Slowdown in U.S. Is 'Probable'

TOKYO (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Tokyo seminar on Thursday that he does not think economic slowdown in his country is "probable," toning down his earlier warning over a recession later this year.

"It is possible we can get a U.S. recession toward the end of this year, but I don't think it's probable," Dow Jones Newswires quoted Greenspan as saying in his speech at a Tokyo forum organized by international brokerage CLSA.

Greedscam is still not to old for a backflip when ordered

Freeballinginawetsuit · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Sounds like someone I used to deal with at Kojonup who lost his job for embezzlement as the CEO at the Shire.

When asking him for a straight answer to a question that reqired one......he was never up to it.

'I Prefer to Defer' thats all he could muster!

A christian, embezzling, indecissive, butt kisser.....but I made money off them so he wasn't that bad

mjp · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

"March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said borrowers were at least 30 days past due at the end last year on almost a fifth of the subprime loans that it serviced for others."

What you ommitted here is the company quoted has sold down it's subprime portfolio to be a very small part of it's total portfolio. So while 20% of loans it services for others may be at risk (which does not mean teminal) that risk is spread around many players, all with that risk as a small part of their overall portfolio. I've read elsewhere that the subprime mortg mkt is a small component overall.

So markets working well distributing risk and keeping it a low portion of portfolios.

IMHO - but of course but don't take my word for it, do your own research.

rederob · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Precious metals declined substantially overnight.
You can call off the dogs of PANIC.

Atomic5 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Warren Buffet just called a hard landing.

wayneL · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Atomic5 said:
Warren Buffet just called a hard landing.

Link?

Smurf1976 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Kimosabi said:
You can't tell me that subprime debacle isn't going to unravel the whole US economy, then the rest of the world. It's seems to be feeding off itself. There's apparently $1 Trillion of ARM's that reset this year that a lot of people who have these loans won't be able to afford to repay.

A very good reason why the real estate bubble ought to have been snuffed out before it got anywhere. Once you've had the speculative excesses and so on, there's not much left to do other than wait for the fallout.

wayneL · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Just looking around the NYSE cheerleading sites (Marketwatch, CNNNN etc) for Buffett references and jeez they're bearish!

It's remarkable the sentiment change.

BY comparison, the Aussie cheerleaders are still very upbeat.

Interesting times

Atomic5 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

wayneL said:
Link?

Bloomberg cable - he just spoke at a shareholders meeting. Must be on the internet somewhere by now.

Atomic5 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Smurf1976 said:
A very good reason why the real estate bubble ought to have been snuffed out before it got anywhere. Once you've had the speculative excesses and so on, there's not much left to do other than wait for the fallout.

Wont this see money go back into real estate if it goes bad? Money was pulled out of real estate the minute last years slow period was over end of August 2006.

greggy · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

The Dow Jones went down 34 points, a very small fall. Warren Buffett has forecasted a hard landing. May be he's right, on the other hand I know for a fact that he is currently underinvested in the market and has been waiting for a correction. Hence, its in his best interest to predict gloom and doom. Do you really think that he would give free advice like that unless he had a plan to go with it?
DYOR

Atomic5 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

He is also one of the most altruistic persons on the planet.

greggy · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Atomic5 said:
He is also one of the most altruistic persons on the planet.

Hi Atomic5,

I'm not doubting the fact that he's given away a lot of money to different charities over the years. I'm just questioning his thinking behind his comments. Is he trying to panic many inexperienced shareholders into selling so that he can use his wealth to buy up cheap stock. He has been complaining for years about the fact that he hasn't been able to find many stocks that meet his criteria.

cuttlefish · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.

The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it. (whether he's right is another matter).

The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.

greggy · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

cuttlefish said:
why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.

The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it. (whether he's right is another matter).

The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.

He also will no doubt have the effect of scaring little investors into panic selling. No doubt he will buy back in whilst others are selling. Yes, he does give a lot of money away, but so do a lot of other people and I commend him for that.
Anyway, clearly here lets agree to disagree.
DYOR

Ants · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.

The more he takes the more he can help, maybe?

ducati916 · 2 March 2007

Re: PANIC!!!!!

cuttlefish said:
why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.

The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it. (whether he's right is another matter).

The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.

Agreed.

Buffett has been in the markets since 1951, involved with them since 1945 odd, has gone from a few hundred bucks to $40 Billion+

You would think when he speaks, people would show a little respect.
What he hasn't seen, and done isn't worth knowing.
Read the book, seen the film, got the t-shirt.

You'd listen to some retard off CNN?
If so, you deserve everything that comes your way.

jog on
d998

PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

ducati916

Kimosabi

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Freeballinginawetsuit

mjp

rederob

Atomic5

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Smurf1976

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Atomic5

Atomic5

greggy

Atomic5

greggy

cuttlefish

greggy

Ants

ducati916

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