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OZL - Oz Minerals

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Another trade before opening this morning2,258,762 shares for $7,058,859 which equals $3.125 per share. Does anyone have an explanation?
 
Could it possibly be options being exercised early, such as September puts? Maybe someone accumulated and pyramided puts on the way with long expiry. After the recent slaughter of this stock, they may have decided to take profits early.
 
Greg71 said:
Could it possibly be options being exercised early, such as September puts? Maybe someone accumulated and pyramided puts on the way with long expiry. After the recent slaughter of this stock, they may have decided to take profits early.
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For someone to take a profit then there is someone taking a loss. In this case it is a large loss. Options are often taken on without the cash to back up the deal. If someone has had to "buy" at that price and they have now to "sell" again it could be helping to keep the OZL SP down. The OZL price has fallen more than the fall in commodity prices would suggest was necessary.
 
It is on again today. Another sale, pre open, of 1,535,653 shares for $4,848,940 which equals $3.16 per share.Now for three days in a row and possibly a lot longer. I may have not noticed earlier episodes. This trading is costing someone a lot of money and probably costing all holders a little, one way or another.
 
I don't know why that's happening Noirua. Damn interesting though.

Maybe call the company and ask them?
 
Oh no....what's happening with this little poor OZL...

she is going to hit the 52 weeks Low soon...

it's breaking my heart....
 
Looks like the 52 week low might just get smashed today ...
I came incredibly close to buying some OZL on Wednesday; thank goodness I didn't!

Indicative price for open is already 1.61; who knows how far she could tumble. There's been fair support around this area lately; with some decent bounces off of it - if breached where's the price headed?

The weak AUD may at least act as a cushion preventing any catastrophic falls; but will that last? Surely the USD is in worse shape than the skippy - what will happen if she recovers against the USD, and commodities do not?

Gosh, we really are on the long-term edge here! Touching the Jan 06 low before the break-out. Next stop, $1-$1.5?

... Just a whole lot of contradictions in the market, really. US in recession, retail sales down, unemployment up ... USD up?!
 
And once more some interesting preopen sales. 1,673,615 for $4,995,281. Average price$2.985. When will this end????? In the words of Professor Summner Miller "why is it so?"
 
I took a big punt on OXR when it was above $3, and kept on buying since then. And taking into account the slumping commodity prices of copper, Zinc, Nickel, is there any other reason why OZL has been hammered very very hard? I would love to hear ASF-ers comments as can't see its bottom. and i hope i'm not the only one in a great depression, care to share?
 

Sentiment. Zinc probably being a large part of the trigger; the price of Zinc has plummeted in recent times, and so has copper.

More people are starting to consider the possibility that the commodities-boom is over as well (I'm an avid believer in this; especially with regards to base metals), and that will obviously have a terrible effect on SP. With a global-slow down looking more and more likely ... there is support for this theory.

In short, she's just a dog Fine to trade with (came close the other day! Phew), but I wouldn't be investing in it.

Oh, and just a question - this always baffles me. Why have you held on since $3 to now? What would posses you? I held OXR at $3-something as well, but I got out once it touched the high $2.xx mark ... why wouldn't you at least use some sort of stop? I guess I just don't understand, sorry.

Is it that you really believe that in the short-to-medium term the SP is going to double back to over $3? If you believe in the long-term fundamentals, then why not sit on the fence and wait for a new strong trend to develop? I guess it just sounds more like gambling than investing to me .... Not giving advice, just trying to see your mindset
 
By the volume of selling and the "odd" sales made preopen I suggest there is an amount of forced selling going on with OZL. Probably assisted by margin calls. Add to that the lemming factor and the declining metal prices and you have an uncertain immediate future. There is also no news that I have seen regarding the ex AGM nickel project so there may be a hold up there also.

That's the bad news. The good news is that the fundamentals are sound and there is no reason to panic as there is plenty of room for improvement and OZL should be capable of returning a satisfactory return to investors in the medium turn. I'm happy to hold. DYOR.
 

Can you say with certainty though that the fundamentals are sound? What if we do go into a deep and long global recession - China included? Europe looks bad, the US looks bad, property prices are falling, commodity prices are falling...

Not everyone who sells to protect capital is a lemming. I remember I sold off a few stocks during the little "crash" we had a few months back; turned out to have been a fantastic decision!
 
Sentiment maybe?

I read somewhere that the US based $2.8B Ospiriae Hedge Fund has closed down with heavy losses - apparently it was heavily invested in OZL + other resources- so my guess is they're dumping OZL.

Does that explain the huge x-trades lately?

There's also a lot of shorting on OZL by large and small traders who play OZL because its an attractive liquid trade (Should shorting be banned in markets?- another topic!)

Large traders appear to have fun screwing with OZL sp by shorting it to death.

Chinese also holding back buying base metals until price is right??

Fundamentally the book value of the mines OZL owns are greater than their market value at the moment.

Sentiment?? Who knows -OZL sp getting hammered today. I hold OZL but for how long?
 
nioka said:
...The good news is that the fundamentals are sound and there is no reason to panic as there is plenty of room for improvement and OZL should be capable of returning a satisfactory return to investors in the medium turn...
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Well...more or less i do have the same perspective as you nioka. And to answer your question Nyden is the very same reason i quoted above by Nioka. Anyway thanx for the comments guys, i really appreciate it. And since the beginning of the year i had cut 1/2 of my portfolio in retails and financials, but left OZL as my total bet as commodity tends to be the safe heaven when financials crashes. And yes Nyden i feel like i am gambling and not investing.
 
animadverto said:
...I read somewhere that the US based $2.8B Ospiriae Hedge Fund has closed down with heavy losses - apparently it was heavily invested in OZL + other resources- so my guess is they're dumping OZL...
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I hope someone else would like to share more on this info. And i do realize that OZL is not the only mid-cap stock that had been hammered heavily lately but for Australia's no.3 diversified miner (correct me if i'm wrong) & World's no.2 zinc producer to be hammered this much, i'm just frustrated
 
PhoenixXx said:
And yes Nyden i feel like i am gambling and not investing.
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Why would you think of OZL as a gamble. It is not a spec stock by any means. It is a productive unit with a cash balance and some diversity in it's operations. It is no more a gamble than life itself. Sure the daily price will fluctuate but the "value" changes little. It is, today, a traders stock but generally it is an investors stock and an investor would hold on the fundamentals.
 
PhoenixXx,

I knew someone who bought Pasminco, just the way you have bought OZL. They bought more and more as the price fell.

Why??

Where is your stop??

Just because 'fundamentals' look good to you, does not mean they are good.

We can and are all wrong in our trading/investing throughout our lives, we just need to realize when we are wrong and do something about it before it hurts us.

brty
 
brty said:
Just because 'fundamentals' look good to you, does not mean they are good.
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The fundamentals look good because they ARE good. It is the gambling traders working with huge leverage that have the bad fundamentals in most cases like these. Maybe some are learning the wisdom of "neither a borrower nor a lender be". The big problem in these times is that there are not enough true investors and too many traders wanting instant riches operating. In that type of enviroment there has to be a loser for there to be a winner. An investor only loses if and when they sell in most cases.
 
nioka said:
Why would you think of OZL as a gamble...
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No nioka, i did not specifically pointed OZL as my gamble. I was referring to a broader term. As nowadays i do believe the sp of some companies do not reflect their true value with their current sp, that's why i said i felt more like gambling and not investing.
 
brty said:
...Where is your stop??...
Click to expand...

Appreciate your advice brty, but as OZL is my mid-long term invest, i have not put my stop loss. On all other short-terms like CFD & forex i generally put a stop of 5-10%
 
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