Oil/Gold Prices Will Go Up This Week!

[Epsilon]

Expect a new Oil price hike this week after the uncompromisingly incendiary speech by the Iranian Islamic President few hours ago in the UN.
Speaking in New York, the Iranian President Ahmadinejad used anything BUT a conciliatory tone in his UN speech regarding Iran's Uranium enrichment program.
As a result......A dangerous Crisis is developing and the E3 representatives (Germany, France and GB) may not have other alternative But (in conjunction with USA) to ask the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for Sanctions......
All that -of course- means escalation of the Crisis with the consequences being...Higher Oil-Gold prices.......While we do not complain about further increases in the Gold price.....No one wants to see oil prices reaching new highs.

It's worth noting also........UCL (Union Res.) with its zinc (and other metals) Leases in Iran may be affected adversely if the Crisis escalates further......

Great Sunday to all!!!!!!

 

[mime]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

All that -of course- means escalation of the Crisis with the consequences being...Higher Oil-Gold prices.......While we do not complain about further increases in the Gold price.....No one wants to see oil prices reaching new highs.

Great Sunday to all!!!!!!

Unless you've invested heavly in energy stocks. I'm not sure what to think of the oil price recently. It's been steadly dropping with the exeption of Katrina.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Mime.....YES...Of-course, naturally, "Those" who have invested in energy stocks (especially oil stocks) will be benefited greatly by a new price hike in the price of oil.
However, the overwhelm majority of consumers, worldwide, will be -severely- adversely affected....While with an upward movement in the price of Gold there will NOT BE many losers (if any)....
There is a discernible difference.....Don't you think so?

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

There would be some justice in an oil spike for those of us who foresaw the present situation years ago and were laughed at by everyone from neighbours to governments.

In short, in the not too distant future we're going to have falling oil supply and, according to the ususal economic forecasters, rising demand along with "economic growth". But with falling production the rising demand doesn't mean rising consumption.

So I'm not expecting cheap oil or world peace. The economic growth could be a problem too.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

"There would be some justice in an oil spike for those of us who foresaw the present situation years ago and were laughed at by everyone from neighbours to governments.".....
Smurf..."Us"? Did you actually forsee it years back? Who is "Us"?
Can you please elaborate?

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

"There would be some justice in an oil spike for those of us who foresaw the present situation years ago and were laughed at by everyone from neighbours to governments.".....
Smurf..."Us"? Did you actually forsee it years back? Who is "Us"?
Can you please elaborate?

In short, yes I did foresee this situation and I did set about spreading the word but in due course got sick of being laughed (literally) at and being constantly talked down at.

So I bought oil stocks instead when they were cheap... Should have bought more of them though (that'll teach me to doubt myself).

According to those who claim to know better, plenty of alternatives will come onstream almost seamlessly at around $30 a barrel. Hmm... Double that now and no sign of alternatives and their promoters have gone rather quiet. There are alternatives, but not anywhere near as easily as many seem to think.

There seems to be a near universal inability to accept the reality of this situation. The world just doesn't have the productive capacity in oil fields to meet forecast demand and there's no realistic plan to change that.

I'm no great fan of George Bush but one thing I will credit him for is that he seems to very much understand this problem even if he isn't doing anywhere near enough about it. But then even the President of the United States of America can't seem to get the message through that oil is a massive problem so the lack of action isn't completely his fault. Look at all the fuss about drilling in Alaska - hardly anyone seems to realise that what they're talking about is drilling right next to... an existing major oil field!

Everyone just carries on as if there were plenty of the stuff. Global warming is a classic case. It could well be a serious problem, but it's all based on burning oil in quantities that are most unlikely to be available. Surely top scientists can understand that if oil has not been found, and is not being found, in sufficient quantities then it can't be used in those quantities.

I do acknowledge that there's a serious social side to this. But that is very much in the same category as house prices. Speculators gain from house price rises at the expense of the majority who pay more to buy their first home and more again to trade up. Likewise the situation is much the same with oil. And yet governments etc. condone massive house price inflation as if it somehow benefited those priced out of the market. So it's fair enough for those of us who have done the research to profit from oil IMO. I'll agree with regulated oil prices when we have regulated house prices. A plan to bring petrol prices down will be fair when we have a plan to bring house prices down. Both are essential after all so both should be affordable to the masses. And yet everyone complaining about oil ignores the fact that the one case of inflation even more out of control than petrol prices in recent years has been house prices.

Not that I have anything against property. But I do get very fed up with hearing how making $ speculating on property is good but if the oil industry makes a profit then that must be bad. In both cases it's coming out of the pockets of ordinary workers who pay higher prices. But with oil it's more justified in economic terms since there is an actual physical shortage that requires $ trillions (that's trillions with a T and on a scale that the world probably can't afford which is the major problem) to fix whereas houses can be built by the thousands at a cost which has not greatly increased.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Well said Smurf)
Perfectly conceived and superbly delivered, the whole concept about the diminishing resources of petroleum.....
What about Uranium***? What are your thoughts?


***** Nuclear energy that is. One of the cheapest and cleanest sources of energy...
YET as if we did not have enough problems with that scourge of our planet, Islam and oil, they are now causing even greater a problem, with their attemts to acquire and share with MORE ISLAMIC DICTATORSHIPS as the Iranian President declared in Turkey, nuclear weapons technology.....
They (muslims) had the "Oil Power" for years. Enough. We, the rest, the civilised world, the world that does not espouse murdering human beings as part of our martyrdom initiation process, should NOT ALLOW them (Islamo-fanatic-fascists) to get another opportunity, albeit much more severely threatening for the entire human kind, against the entire planet's survival.
No! To Iran's attempt to acquire nuclear weapons of mass destructions.
No,a resounding NO, and full support to the E3 (Europe's Germany, France,the UK) and the USA, if we want the see this poor planet and our human race survive for a century or two more!!!

 

[DTM]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

I do acknowledge that there's a serious social side to this. But that is very much in the same category as house prices. Speculators gain from house price rises at the expense of the majority who pay more to buy their first home and more again to trade up. Likewise the situation is much the same with oil. And yet governments etc. condone massive house price inflation as if it somehow benefited those priced out of the market. So it's fair enough for those of us who have done the research to profit from oil IMO. I'll agree with regulated oil prices when we have regulated house prices. A plan to bring petrol prices down will be fair when we have a plan to bring house prices down. Both are essential after all so both should be affordable to the masses. And yet everyone complaining about oil ignores the fact that the one case of inflation even more out of control than petrol prices in recent years has been house prices.

Not that I have anything against property. But I do get very fed up with hearing how making $ speculating on property is good but if the oil industry makes a profit then that must be bad. In both cases it's coming out of the pockets of ordinary workers who pay higher prices. But with oil it's more justified in economic terms since there is an actual physical shortage that requires $ trillions (that's trillions with a T and on a scale that the world probably can't afford which is the major problem) to fix whereas houses can be built by the thousands at a cost which has not greatly increased.

Well said Smurf. It looks like oil is a scarce resource although houses don't have to be.

 

[Milk Man]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Gold will go up and keep going up IMO.

As for house prices; all of you who want to live in smog infested cities can keep your postage stamp sized blocks! House prices are expensive because there is too much demand in cities. Go to the country, get one of the many jobs available and buy a house on 1/4 acre for $100000. Sydney house prices are ridiculous. People that winge that they can't afford it: no-one said you have to live in Sydney!

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Those who want to live in Sydney, at all costs (and I don't blame them...Sydney is the best city in the world) can always go and buy a house out in the West, or the South West (the Outer South West that is).....I think they can be still affordable out there......
OR.......The second best choice...The best alternative......Move all the way to the REAL WEST........Perth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cheers......Great and profitable week to all)

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Smurf..."Us"? Did you actually forsee it years back? Who is "Us"?

I'm with the Smurf. I knew.

In the '70s King Hubbert told us of peak oil and before that Ralph Nader warned us that oil was a depleteing resource, possibly in "The Waste Makers" which I read. Naturally both were laughed at.

So the story was out there, just not on TV, is all.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

"So the story was out there, just not on TV, is all."
...Yeah...Of-course ....the story was 'OUT THERE"......The only problem is NO ONE took any notice. In hindsight we are all becoming experts and "prophets"....
BTW...Who is (was?) king Hubert?

PS. Ralf Nader has never been taken seriously, not even in the USA where his following is less than 3% (at best).....

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Not that I have anything against property. But I do get very fed up with hearing how making $ speculating on property is good but if the oil industry makes a profit then that must be bad.

I used to be a regular poster on Somersoft, a property forum, and this attitude is precisely their's. They want the government to "do something" about petrol prices but to do nothing which would prevent them from retiring @ 50 with millions of $s in property. In a recent post (had to change my nic) I asked why they thought Caltex investers didn't deserve their day in the sun. No replies.

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

"So the story was out there, just not on TV, is all."
...Yeah...Of-course ....the story was 'OUT THERE"......The only problem is NO ONE took any notice. In hindsight we are all becoming experts and "prophets"....
BTW...Who is (was?) king Hubert?

PS. Ralf Nader has never been taken serious, not even in the USA where his following is less than 3% (at best).....

If you don't know who King (name, not title) Hubbert was then you've got a lot of reading to catch up on. Naturally start by Googling his name.

The fact that you didn't believe what you were told is your problem, not mine. Smurf an I DID take notice.

BTW Peak Oil is a much more serious problem than expensive petrol for motorists. It is reasonable to regard modern agriculture as a process to convert oil to food, they use so much of it. So the end of cheap oil will also be the end of cheap food.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

The fact that you didn't believe what you were told is your problem, not mine. Smurf an I DID take notice.

Glad to hear it Han......Glad to hear that you took notice and obviously (the only logical thing to do) were loaded with cheap (a dozen a dime they were then...) Energy stocks.......
Enjoy your millions now then Han...You thoroughly deserve them!!!!!

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

"The fact that you didn't believe what you were told is your problem, not mine. Smurf an I DID take notice."
Glad to hear it Han......Glad to hear that you took notice and obviously (the only logical thing to do) were loaded with cheap (a dozen a dime they were then...) Energy stocks.......
Enjoy your millions now then Han...You thoroughly deserve them!!!!!

I'm not sure which oilers were both safe and cheap a year ago. HDR hasn't advanced far and is speculative. (did OK with it 18mths ago) CTX has had a nice run but is a refiner/retailer, not producer. ROC and WPL have done well enough and I should hsve had some, (but not have matched SMM and ERA). BHP is a lot more than an oiler, so no; I didn't make a fortune. As they say, It aint easy. But thanks for your wishes.

My most productive trading stock for years is a miner, BSG.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

To get away from the personal nonsense...

If you take a 5 year rolling average of oil discoveries then the worldwide peak was in the early 1960's.

This is for discoveries of genuine new fields, not simply drilling out known fields and announcing the new wells as a "discovery". Whilst it's significant to the company concerned, it's a bit like buying a new house and after 6 months taking a look under the floor and "discovering" a pile of timber and a hot water service and then claiming that you just got them. In reality they were yours from the day you bought the place - sooner or later you were going to find them. Much the same with small oil deposits near existing major fields - it's inevitable that oil companies will over the years push the limits to see how big the field really is. That doesn't make this a new discovery though.

What we need are genuine discoveries of new oil provinces. And these have been seriously trending down from massive surplus over demand 40 years ago, to balance around 1980. Since then demand has continued to rise and discovery has continued to decline.

So now we are at the point where most oil is produced from a relatively small number of oil fields that are rapidly aging. We just don't have big new fields being discovered to replace them. A few big fields nearing decline, and hundreds of thousands of small fields that can't possibly offset the decline of the elephant and giant fields.

The North Sea, Prudhoe Bay (Alaska), Siberia and Bass Strait were all discovered in the 1960's. Since then it just keeps getting smaller despite more drilling, better technology etc.

So now we're coming to that point, first predicted back in 1956 and known with reasonable certainty based on actual oilfield experince since the 1970's, where the productive capacity of the world's oil fields fails to meet demand.

Not a peaking of production yet, although that will happen in due course, but a failure to meet demand. A failure that is not easily overcome.

More to follow on what happens next... (from a scientific perspective). Should be tonight.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

In the mean time.....OPEC is meeting this week (Vienna?) to seriously consider increasing its daily output of oil in a last ditch attemt (see: desperate) to bring down to more logical, more acceptable levels, the price of petroleum.....
Let's see......Interesting days ahead of us......

 

[mime]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Those who want to live in Sydney, at all costs (and I don't blame them...Sydney is the best city in the world) can always go and buy a house out in the West, or the South West (the Outer South West that is).....I think they can be still affordable out there......

West?? Ewww.

Na kidding. I was told by one of my teachers awhile ago that petrol will cost around $2 a litre in the not to distant future because of China and India's growth. After I herd that I sold out of all my other stocks and bought into energy.

Reading this post makes me this of that book "Rich dad, Poor Dad" when his friend told him about the price of oil was going to rise and he bought lots of energy stocks and profited.

It's a different mind set. Rather then bitch about the cost of oil why not profit from it?

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

You are excused Mime.....You are excused my friend)
Now...re: Your suggestion.....
"It's a different mind set. Rather then bitch about the cost of oil why not profit from it?"
Well, it would be nice if the price of oil by going upwardly, to uncharted territories, would benefit most people.....Would it not?
In other words.....Ideally ....It would be perfect if the majority of the world's 6,3 billion people were benefiting from the stratospheric levels of the price of oil, by investing in Energy stocks......
Instead, it would appear their "bitching" resonates from Tierra Del Fuego to...Ulan Bator and from Mount Erebus in Nea Zealand to...Greenland......
One is to really wonder why......