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From Crikey again -
OECD: Unemployment and chaos will rock the world
Glenn Dyer writes:
Unemployment is going to be the big issue of the next couple of years -- this will be a "jobs and social crisis" that will grip the world's biggest economies, putting one in 10 workers out of a job, according to the OECD.
The world's top 30 economies -- including Australia -- face an explosion of unemployment over next year, according to the Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development, which is releasing updated economic forecasts tonight for its member countries.
The forecasts will make uncomfortable reading, especially for those still in denial about the need for stimulatory packages. Overnight we got a taste of their big theme from the OECD's boss, Angel Gurria, in a speech in Rome where he warned that unemployment will hit 10% across the 30 member countries in 2010.
There will be "practically with no exceptions." The across-OECD unemployment rate will have risen from 5.6% in 2007, when the credit crunch erupted.
The surge in jobless numbers will come as the 30 advanced economies suffer what the OECD is now calculating to be a much bigger average contraction in growth, bigger than forecast by any other international agency.
The OECD believes the 30 big economies will contract by 4.3% this year, compared to the just released International Monetary Fund forecast of a 3%-3.5% contraction. 2010 will bring little or no growth.
"Our OECD projections indicate that the ongoing contraction in economic activity will worsen this year, before recovery gradually builds momentum through 2010. The uncertainties attached to this bleak outlook are exceptionally large, while the risks remain firmly inclined to the downside," Mr Gurria said in his speech.
"And the job crisis is spreading rapidly around the world. The International Labour Organisation estimates that world-wide unemployment could increase by 40 million people by the end of this year."
He warned that the ranks of the unemployed in the 30 advanced OECD countries would swell "by about 25m people, by far the largest and most rapid increase in OECD unemployment in the postwar period".
The OECD chief said the misery of joblessness was "rapidly turning into a jobs and social crisis".
Mr GurrÃa criticised the lack of focus on the unemployed in much of the debate over fiscal stimulus in the world; comments that will resonate here. The bad news is that globally these additional funds are rather limited, accounting for about 8 to 10 per cent of total expenditures in the United States and France and less in most of the other countries. This may turn into a missed opportunity.
The global economy is contracting. The credit squeeze, negative wealth effects (stemming from lower house and equity prices) and a generalized loss of confidence are dragging down economic activity everywhere. Trade flows are expected to fall by 9% in 2009.
Foreign direct investment inflows will further contract, after shrinking by about 20% in 2008. Development aid flows are threatened, while remittances from migrants are dropping fast.
This meltdown is rapidly turning into a jobs and social crisis. Labour market conditions are weakening throughout the world, as companies are cutting production, closing factories and dismissing workers. Our latest projections (to be released officially tomorrow) indicate that the unemployment rate in the OECD area could approach 10% by 2010 compared with 5.6% in 2007.
Miserable times ahead.
You can see it happening now, layoffs everywhere, every day.
10% unemployment is now almost a certainty - meaning.
Housing mortgage defaults by the truckload and a housing crash.
If ever there was a sure thing this is it, and the RBA ??? wouldnt listen to a word they say, they live on the 68th floor of a building somewhere away from reality.
Job losses are at the heart of the growing political crisis. The International
Labour Organisation expects global unemployment to rise by around 30m this
year compared with 2007, and by as much as 50m if the world economy turns
desperately downward. In the US alone, more than 2.5m jobs were lost in the
four months from November 2008 to February this year. Unemployment is
being driven, in part, by a collapse in industrial production, which has fallen by
more than 10% year on year in most countries. Japan's exports plunged by a
shocking 46% in January this year and its economy by more than 12% in the
fourth quarter of 2008, at an annual rate. Service industries are shedding jobs
just as quickly. Few employers, apart from government, are hiring.
Happy, you're not serious in this proposal are you????With the first home grant recipients should also get job guarantee for 10 years or so, similar to guarantee of bank deposits for 3 years.
That's it!
I've had enough.....
I gunna jump off a cliff
PS: and DOW futures up 74.... are they living under a rock?
Happy, you're not serious in this proposal are you????
That's it!
I've had enough.....
I gunna jump off a cliff
PS: and DOW futures up 74.... are they living under a rock?
The forecasts will make uncomfortable reading, especially for those still in denial about the need for stimulatory packages
With the first home grant recipients should also get job guarantee for 10 years or so, similar to guarantee of bank deposits for 3 years.
One of the most brainless things i have ever read.
IMO there are no "smart" or "cautious" "investors" left in the markets.
Well, Temjin, it seems the IMF doesn't share your view. On today's Radio National's "The World Today", the head of the IMF declared that Australia's stimulus was "the best in the world" and "the most effective". "Australia was a shining example to the rest of the world, could afford to spend more" etc etc. I can just see our fearless leader's chest swell with pride.That's bulls--t. I'm in denial about the need for stimulus packages simply because I do not think they will work at all. If people are laid off because of over-capacity, then they should be laid off and fed for themselves. Free market at its best.
If ever there was a sure thing this is it, and the RBA ??? wouldnt listen to a word they say, they live on the 68th floor of a building somewhere away from reality.
If brown matter hits the fan (sorry UK PM for the pun) to avoid having tens of thousands of vacant houses that owners could not afford to pay and nobody is interested to rent, some intervention from Government is almost inevitable especially that so many billions were happily spent to save the big end of town.
Well, Temjin, it seems the IMF doesn't share your view. On today's Radio National's "The World Today", the head of the IMF declared that Australia's stimulus was "the best in the world" and "the most effective". "Australia was a shining example to the rest of the world, could afford to spend more" etc etc. I can just see our fearless leader's chest swell with pride.
..
From ABC, 1 Apr. 09
OECD FIGURES SHOW 'FLASH FLOOD' STIMULUS NOT WORKING
The Federal Opposition says the latest report on the world economy by the OECD shows that the United States is the only country to have spent more than Australia on economic stimulus packages.
The OECD now expects its members' economies to shrink by more than 4 per cent this year, driving up unemployment.
Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey says the report confirms that the billions of dollars spent by the Government on economic stimulus packages have not worked.
"What Kevin Rudd did was decide to spend, spend, spend - to try and address a problem that he was unable to fix," he said.
"Kevin Rudd's solution to a drought was to create a flash flood and it did not work."
But Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner has told ABC1's Lateline program the OECD figures back up Australia's view that other G20 participants need to continue efforts to stimulate the world economy.
"You would have to expect that the argument for stronger stimulus action across the developed nations would be strengthened by this data because they do underline just how bad the situation is globally," he said.
I am not one for conspiracy theories.....but all this hype spread over the net....and all those old and new guru's coming out of hibernation.....extreme stories and apparently believed by many as gospel......makes me wonder...
:sheep:
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