there seems to be plenty of respect for this stock still despite SP continuing to fall... what do you think it will take for it to change direction?
Dano, Re your question, the number one factor is the overall market sentiment, so that could take well into next year before that changes. Whether the market recognises and rewards the NMS sp, as a recession proof, oil price proof, overall negative sentiment proof stock remains to be seen. Unfortunately this market came as NMS is heavily investing in companies, staff, vessels and equipment and this market doesn't recognise potential. The next best chance of seeing large $$$ in the bank wont come till the 1st quarter report at the end of October. It would have to be a very large contract to alter the SP, as the ones to date have been excellent and done nothing. And I doubt they could handle a very large contract anyway, from what I gather they have already gained 70% of the work they can handle for the first 6months of the new FY. Just a rough calculation, but if the approximately 50million of new work they have booked is 70% of FY09 1st half, you could estimate (roughly!!) that FY09 should earn around 140million. And given that they already have a huge head start with the 70% of 1st half FY09 already booked, they should earn that.
It's a wonder though that there has been no mention of licensing out the Nepsys technology, if BP says it is the weld of the future, surely it would be someday used by people other than NMS staff. If that happened then there would be little drain on staff and probably Clive's training centre would be getting inundated with nepsys training. One day nepsys should again be used on ships, docks, locks etc, but for the moment I'm sure they only limit it to big margin oil and gas jobs. I think if they could work out agreements to license the technology we could see a huge surge in SP, after all they only have a handful of trained staff and the worldwide potential use for nepsys would be enormous, or is it?????? Lange did downplay the significance of nepsys recently, in relation to company earnings, i wonder exactly what he meant??
The recent BRR mentioning the 300 day contract for the new vessel must be one of their biggest. The smaller vessel was costed at 37.5k a day, but maybe there is variables making it more expensive, such as a ROV, but maybe the larger vessel is worth considerably more per day? if it was 40k per day x 300, it would earn 12million.
When all these companies finally integrate and start on selling all NMS services, which would probably require at least 3 times the current workforce, this company will be huge and the SP will be well into the $$$. Patience is needed and $$$ you wont need now, because this could take awhile. I personally hope it stays down awhile, as I sold a few, to invest on something I think will be a quick $$$ spinner, then put all $$$ back on NMS. Nevertheless I still hold many NMS. Plasma i think we are still in the middle of the tunnel, not seeing light yet, but when we do it will be blinding. Just my thoughts, of course research yourself.