This week is round three in the NRL competition & last weeks results show how unpredictable some games will be not unlike the market of late,in the NRL tipping comp brad fittler did not pick a winner,i was lucky enough to pick the broncos,bulldogs,tigers of course & newcastle in extra time.
Along with selections i will provide some stats from the games between the sides since 2008,first named team is playing at home.
Eels v knights:The eels with the return of tim smith should give more control around the rucks,eels have won 8/16 of the clashes,home team is 10/15,parra at home v knights are 5/8,the eels by 8
Broncos v cowboys:The battle of the banana benders here,with the broncos looking good early,new half peter wallace has his pack going forward with mongrel,the cowboys pack have been run over in the first 2 rounds,with the tigers light weight back rowers being too mobile for them to handle last week,watch for tj marsh to target the tiring cowboys late.
The stats between these 2 sides show the home side losing 6 of the last 10 games for a total 9/17 at home loses but broncos to win,look for the broncos to kick a field goal with a scoreline to the broncos of 25-18,25-24,29-23.broncos on class with lockyer/wallace...
Roosters v Storm:Looking forward to the packs colliding here as mason & o'meley have given the roosters pack the yardage needed to climb back into contention,storm without enforcer white look suspect up front.
The roosters have a good record v the storm having won 8/13,at home since 2000.the chooks played 5 games for 4 wins by margins of,10,28,22,35.storm look vunerable & geyer on the bench(dumb move) leaves them down 1 forward,the roosters by 1-7.
Raiders v dragons:Going for canberra at home where they usually score 30 points,they are a gutsy team with plenty of heart led by tongue,against the dragons who look to be getting wayne bennett for next year,the dragons seem soft around the ruck but brilliant out wide,for me canberra to win by 10-12..
stats say canberra won last 7/11 plus a 21-21 draw,canberra have won the last 5 home games v the dragons.
watch for young gun halves of campese & carney to carve up the saints..
Titans v Sharks:The titans except for bailey,prince,rogers are reserve grade standard,the sharks with ricky stuart in his 2nd season as coach are putting it together early like the last few years,but then ran out of steam so they maylook to pace themselves this year.
The sharks have a solid pack led by gallen & bird,followed by kimmorely pulling the strings for all to run off,sharks too classy by 16.
Watch brett kearney from fullback he can score a try from anything...
Panthers v rabbitohs:What a yawn,the battle of the 1 dimensional attacks,rubbish game.
penrith are paying the penalty now for not moving on slugs like the puletulas & frank pritchard,too slow for top grade these days,watch how slow pritchard & waterhouse are to anticipate the inside ball..
The rabbitohs have 1 decent player...roy asotasi,the rest should be playing in the jim beam cup,however penrith have a better half back in jarrod sammut(penrith let go peter wallace to the broncos,he was man of the match last week!,work that one out).penrith by 2 points on the efforts of little sammut.
Penrith have the biggest junior league in the world & in the last 3 years in this comp. they have had players who dead set couldnt run out of sight on a dark night.poor management...(look at the tigers bringing juniors through the ranks...)
Bulldogs v the tigers:Tim sheens has the team going well early so thats a good sign,robbie farah is carving them up as usual.as i said before we got
some good young guns.
The arrival of 19 year old Tim moltzen alongside fellow 19 year old chris lawrence to take over from benji shows the junior programmes are working
well,trendsetters watch this kids sidestep & passing game,reckon he might stay & benji go to halfback..tigers to run riot by 16..
Sea eagles v warriors:Manly seem to be struggling without monaghans direction & ball skills around the ruck,manly are staring down a 0/3 start to the season,with the warriors coming off a good win over parra..
The stats: Threw up the warriors are 10/14 over manly,also they are 4/6 at brookvale since 2000,extraordinary as manly are so hard to beat there.
the margins to the warriors were,2,18,4,8..
The 2 manly won were 2007 13-10 & 18-16 in 2002,so not just because i hate manly!,i like the warriors(good on their day) by 10,as for manly iam not convinced jamie lyon is a 5/8,ditto gasnier.
so my tips are:
Eels,roosters,raiders,sharks,penrith,the tigers,warriors.
my bets:like the broncos to kick a fieldgoal for scores of
25-18,25-24,29-23..plus a few others,19-18,19-12,25-12...
I like the tiger whiz kid moltzen for 1st try scorer,probably get odds of
15-16/1..(havent checked sports tab yet.)good luck anyone having a punt
TB