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DIY Trader
- Joined
- 3 February 2010
- Posts
- 5,359
- Reactions
- 345
@tech/a
This is a stock you asked about way back in 2007 !
Great call mate! I bought some at the close for $3.25. Looked like it was getting capped at $3.40, hopefully the seller gets bulldozed over the next few daysNeuren trials continue to progress as expected, Trofinetide results are expected in the upcoming quarter the potential to help so many with this drug and have a decent SP upside is notable.
We are delighted with these robustly positive results and are now eager to see trofinetide progress through the regulatory approval process. We are very grateful to the Rett syndrome community ... the patients, their caregivers, study site personnel, physicians and everyone who participated in the Lavender study, as well as in the two Phase 2 studies from Neuren that paved the way.
Acadia said they are going to submit the NDA [new drug application] to the FDA mid 2022, CEO Jon Pilcher said. They will have a meeting with the FDA first to go over it all. Because it is an orphan drug it should get priority review, which is only a six month or abbreviated review. So by the end of next year, or very beginning of 2023, they should get approval and be able to launch.
We believe that the Neuren share price is significantly undervalued at these levels, with the upside largely derisked following the phase three results of trofinetide. Acadia forecasts peak sales of $US500 million for the Rett indication alone and only in the US market. Assuming a 12 per cent royalty, Neuren would receive [around] $85 million in royalties from Acadia which have a 100 per cent EBIT margin. This income stream alone should be worth over $1 billion using a modest multiple.
Exactly why I don’t think its to early for a VUL or NVX style run. All have similar capital structures and all are way off making any money. I’ll check back in this time next week but I’ll be surprised if it isn’t in the $5 to $6 range by thenI dropped this in, elsewhere on the net
Tuesday, pm: ......
A graph of NEU over the last few years looks like an outline of SW USA landscape, of mesas and buttes in a desert landscape.
On a broad brush, there have been at least 6 times the SP has jumped sometimes more than 100%, and over just a few days. But then the declines have been just as rapid, so we have a 50c stock that has made it to $3 now four times, only to track back to $1 or thereabouts. And that is not taking into account dilutions and cap raisings along the way.
Today there has been a 91% jump, from $1.70 overnight to close at $3.25. All based on favourable Phase III results.
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) today reported that its partner for trofinetide in North America, Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD), has announced positive top-line results from the pivotal, Phase 3 Lavender™ study evaluating the efficacy and safety of trofinetide in 187 girls and young women aged 5 to 20 years with Rett syndrome.
Neuren CEO Jon Pilcher commented:
and on Wednesday, pm: ....
Neuron stands to receive an automatic upfront payment of $111 million if the US healthcare regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), approves trofinetide for commercial use, with an additional $US350 million ($492 million) in sales milestones and double digit royalty payments up for grabs on the drug’s commercial sales:
Karst Peak Capital biotech analyst Hashan De Silva said:
Fda result got published today.The demand for NEU has remained quite strong during the general market selloffs recently. Hit new highs today.
Next FDA news is not due until March 23, but methinks the insiders are happy with the outlook for NEU.
Put an on market order after previous posting and got it executed at $8.92.Fda result got published today.
Watch the market for a catapult for an orphan drug and its phase 2 testing. DNH
Gees - it is always when I buy then price drops down no matter how much conviction I had. Interestingly there was a buy order @$8.81 which got executed when the price dropped from a temporary rise of $9 .Put an on market order after previous posting and got it executed at $8.92.
So I'm a holder now. Ironically did not buy 6 months back being apprehensive and not done research then.
With low cash flow, NEU in near term could go for CR
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