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NCZ - New Century Resources

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Update.
Macquarie Group has increased their holding from 8.47% to 9.57% as announced this afternoon.
A nice 10% rise today.
Aiming for ~38.8% / $0.27 on this one, only 28% to go!
That's the plan anyway.
If it breaks out this week, will revise the plan... expecting a small retrace first though.
F.Rock
 
Update.
NCZ has wiped 50% off it's price over the last week's.
I consider myself very very lucky to have got out completely soon after my last post....
However, have been again working with it a bit this week...wonder where the Deutsch Bank group is taking it next?
Wondering if the price of zinc is going to keep heading down, or find it's feet on the 2000 mark?
With current markets I am very cautious on this one... I trust it like a cut snake...

F.Rock
 
Update.
Credit Suisse owns ~17.3%
Macquarie Group owns ~9.6%
Deutsch Group own circa 5% but have been in and out, and in again...

Closed at 0.072
$0.24 seems so long ago now!
As you may expect, from the names listed above, there's bots/algos trading it, caution required.
Had a bit of a play with the bots today. A bit of fun and interesting to see them react.

F.Rock
 
Closed at $ 0.099
Hopefully it plays around at this level... but I am nearly all out after today. Average of ~18.3% return net this far.
Am still holding 20% of original holding.
Won't know until Monday if that's a mistake or not...

F.Rock
 
Since the last posts the price of NCZ rallied strongly, until news of a major recapitalisation (SSP @ 0.15).

Capital is needed to finance a purchase that may transform the company. NCZ is planning to buy a nickel-cobalt operation in New Caledonia from Vale. Nickel is in increasing demand as battery makers are using more Ni in their cathodes. This makes the batteries last 20% longer.

NCZ has been granted a 60 day exclusivity period to do it's due diligence on the proposed acquisition.

IGO has shown support for the project by buying ~19% NCZ.
 
New Century Resources (ASX: NCZ) has kicked off commercial production at its zinc mine in Queensland, Australia, amid forecasts that see prices for the metal climbing in the coming months as restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic ease.

The Melbourne-based zinc producer, which bought the then mothballed Century mine in 2016, said operations had not been affected by the global pandemic. Instead, Century delivered record production of 34,500 tonnes in the April-June period.

It was the seventh consecutive quarter of increased output and lower costs at the mine, said managing director Patrick Walta.....

https://www.mining.com/australias-century-zinc-mine-begins-commercial-production/
 
Nice bullish bar before the weekend.
Zinc on the rise, somewhere up around $2200 now.
Hopefully the term trend in zinc is continuing up.
Not sure where it's all at though, with mines open or closed, smelters and rates, demand and stockpiles.
FA has me wondering why the stock price hasn't runup yet.
Not in any hurry, like me I guess.
Have to wait and see what Fridays bar brings along.
 
Credit Suisse increased holding recently.
Announced today.
Holding from 11.87% to 13.82%
Looking like September for offer to be made on Goro nickel and cobalt mine.
Quietly on the rise. I have settled on a target of $0.75 for 9 months.
 
Some might be interested in reviewing professional analysts current targets on NCZ.
From what I have seen, lowest of lows is 0.27 and a high of 0.50 and
2 very large brokers have strong buy recommendations on it. (RBC & Credit Suisse)
 
I note that NZC hasn't released final results yet.
Last quarter results look pretty good and should top off a good year for them.
Covid actually benefited them in regards to around half of the top 10 zinc mines shutting down, and smelter prices dropping from lack of feed.
Zinc prices have been on the recovery rise recently, not sure how much of that was in the quarter though.
SP has been mostly sideways for a while now.
Note the 2 record volume days recently....
 
So, a twist in proceedings with a change in substantial holders.
Mitsubishi (MUFG) and Morgan Stanley taking up the dumped holding.
I took the opportunity to accumulate with the disproportionate drop in price.
 
Just noticed the recent dip in price of NCZ. What's happened?

IGO sold out it's 18.4% interest. That's not good.

Potential acquisition of Goro nickel & cobalt mine. What, haven't they bought this yet. Delay?
Another 45day extension granted. (-> mid Sept)

They need to source 900mill for initial mine working capital. They're sorting out the problems with the under performing Goro mine. Acquisition may or may not proceed.

NCZ, it all hinges on this potential acquisition. I'd prefer to see what happens to price after a decision is made.
 
Despite my accumulation, it's now irrelevant as it's been liquidated with the portfolio's.
At first I thought good riddance to IGO, however, I guess they got tired of no return... understandable.
Although for Mitsubishi and MS to pick up the TAB, it couldn't be all bad, just not showing right now.
 
IMO if IGO thought the purchase of the Goro mine was a great idea they wouldn't have bailed. They may even have provided some finance for it if it was a sure thing.
 
While one system triggers a sell (Skates daily strategy), other systems trigger a buy ?
It's a funny old world...


Interestingly, Ze Germans have taken an interest directly.


With the "big name" financial interests holding and that have held, some positive action on the price front is inevitable which has settled after recent major shareholder changes and the proposed Goro mine acquisition anbandoned. I don't see much risk on the downside and am honestly surprised it hasn't run up/ recovered properly from Corona crash. Zinc prices stable and rising..


Position re-entered on 18th September.
 
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