NBN Rollout Scrapped

dutchie · 12 December 2012

On schedule/ behind schedule, on budget/blow out in budget ???

The bottom line.........

Only one in four taking up National Broadband Network service

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/i...-network-service/story-e6frgaif-1226534899142

BIG white elephant.

boofhead · 12 December 2012

25% takeup is reasonably good for something so new and considering many people have existing contracts. Also many people have been fed confusing information often fuelled by the federal coalition.

What takeup rate for something so relatively new do you consider to be acceptable?

DB008 · 12 December 2012

drsmith said:
Some insight ?

The NBN Co is absolutely obsessed with hitting this June 2013 target of passing homes with fibre," the executive said. "But the program is just too tight. Everything has to go right for NBN Co to achieve it, and that could happen, but normally it doesn't. A lot of NBN Co's credibility is riding on hitting those targets and they are threatening blue murder if it doesn't happen."

Click to expand...

Sounds like Labor is also using this method for the budget + surplus side of things.

dutchie · 12 December 2012

boofhead said:
What takeup rate for something so relatively new do you consider to be acceptable?

For something that is so good and costing us so much nothing short of 100% is acceptable.

Maybe, just maybe, they should have done some sort of assessment/evaluation/analysis beforehand.

Calliope · 12 December 2012

Don't worry. At any minute we will see NBNMyths galloping to the rescue of Quigley and Conroy with another bucket-load of spin.

NBNMyths · 12 December 2012

Calliope said:
Don't worry. At any minute we will see NBNMyths galloping to the rescue of Quigley and Conroy with another bucket-load of spin.

Happy to oblige!

dutchie said:
On schedule/ behind schedule, on budget/blow out in budget ???

The bottom line.........

Only one in four taking up National Broadband Network service

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/i...-network-service/story-e6frgaif-1226534899142

BIG white elephant.

dutchie said:
For something that is so good and costing us so much nothing short of 100% is acceptable.

A takeup rate of 25% after 12 months is remarkably high.

As I've written ad-infinitum, the takeup of all new technology is slow in the beginning, no matter how good it is and how much we take it for granted in the not-too-distant future. Telephones, faxes, internet, broadband, mobile phones, computers, iPods etc are all the same. There's even a term to describe it.

I'm sure you'd all agree that broadband is a staple of modern life.

Yet, the takeup of ADSL 18-months after Telstra completed their nationwide rollout was a paltry 3%.

The takeup of Optus HFC cable is currently only 20% after 10 years, in areas where it's available.

I'm curious, Dutchie, how would you have described ADSL in 2002, knowing only 3% of people had connected? A White Elephant? If you'd been in charge, would you have abandoned it, since it was obviously so unpopular?

Maybe, just maybe, they should have done some sort of assessment/evaluation/analysis beforehand.

The KPMG implementation study forecast an 11% takeup after 12 months. The financials in the corp plan are based on that. So NBN Co are currently running at more than double their forecast takeup rate.

Sincere apologies if my facts are inconvenient to your preconceptions on the NBN.

DB008 · 12 December 2012

dutchie · 12 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
Happy to oblige!

A takeup rate of 25% after 12 months is remarkably high.

As I've written ad-infinitum, the takeup of all new technology is slow in the beginning, no matter how good it is and how much we take it for granted in the not-too-distant future. Telephones, faxes, internet, broadband, mobile phones, computers, iPods etc are all the same. There's even a term to describe it.

I'm sure you'd all agree that broadband is a staple of modern life.

Yet, the takeup of ADSL 18-months after Telstra completed their nationwide rollout was a paltry 3%.

The takeup of Optus HFC cable is currently only 20% after 10 years, in areas where it's available.

I'm curious, Dutchie, how would you have described ADSL in 2002, knowing only 3% of people had connected? A White Elephant? If you'd been in charge, would you have abandoned it, since it was obviously so unpopular?

The KPMG implementation study forecast an 11% takeup after 12 months. The financials in the corp plan are based on that. So NBN Co are currently running at more than double their forecast takeup rate.

Sincere apologies if my facts are inconvenient to your preconceptions on the NBN.

Facts are never an inconvenience to me.

Fact: If a study had been made pre 2002 and Australians were asked if they would adopt ADSL if it was available and it was shown that only 3% of people would connect in 18 months, I would say why bother.

Fact: If a study was also made for the NBN similar to the above with same results, I would say why bother.

How many people said they would connect to NBN if it was available before they started???

drsmith · 12 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
Happy to oblige!

What about the rollout schedule ?

The article in The Australian above does suggest it is slipping.

DB008 · 13 December 2012

Front pages of newspapers - China building NBN. Third of the cost. Not as fast.

NBNMyths · 13 December 2012

drsmith said:
What about the rollout schedule ?

The article in The Australian above does suggest it is slipping.

No. Actually the article says it's running on time, but an unidentified source says it could potentially fall behind (by 20-30,000 out of the 341,000 target).

Tell you what though, if it's only running 5-10% behind then it's hardly a disaster!

Let's wait and see though, shall we?

medicowallet · 13 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
I'm sure you'd all agree that broadband is a staple of modern life.

Yet, the takeup of ADSL 18-months after Telstra completed their nationwide rollout was a paltry 3%.

The takeup of Optus HFC cable is currently only 20% after 10 years, in areas where it's available.

The price of ADSL when it was introduced was HIGH and the uses were LOW

The price of NBN is EQUIVALENT and the uses are EQUIVALENT.

So the uptake should be high, as DSLAMS are removed and people are forced to use NBN instead of ADSL..

NBN will get a decent uptake, however, it still does not address the fact that backhaul will be a problem, and that for a household user, there are no current uses for it.

AND that the uses in the future will increase consumption, and decrease local employment.

2 examples of the latter are

1. DVD stores gone
2. Photo processing stores gone (as the chinese take uploads from australia, PRINT the photos much more cheaply, and POST them to our houses much more cheaply than the current firms can)

I fail to see many small businesses that require better than ADSL2 to function, or any medium to large who do not already have access to internet that is viable.

drsmith · 13 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
No. Actually the article says it's running on time, but an unidentified source says it could potentially fall behind (by 20-30,000 out of the 341,000 target).

Again, I'll quote from the article above.

Senior construction sources involved in the NBN say that while the rollout was currently on track, they feared that holidays, potential labour shortages and tardy council approvals would mean the network builder would likely miss its highly publicised target of passing 341,000 premises with fibre optic cabling by June 2013.

One senior executive from a construction firm involved in the NBN said that, based on the current state of the rollout, NBN Co would fall short of that target by 20,000 to 30,000 premises.

"The NBN Co is absolutely obsessed with hitting this June 2013 target of passing homes with fibre," the executive said. "But the program is just too tight. Everything has to go right for NBN Co to achieve it, and that could happen, but normally it doesn't. A lot of NBN Co's credibility is riding on hitting those targets and they are threatening blue murder if it doesn't happen."

The senior executive from a construction firm involved in the NBN (the source which you describe as being unidentified) uses the word "would", not "could potentially".

NBNMyths said:
Tell you what though, if it's only running 5-10% behind then it's hardly a disaster!

Let's wait and see though, shall we?

If it were a publically listed company, I suspect investors would look past the glowing words in the first paragraph and consider more carefully the detail in the following two paragraphs. The resultant share price I suspect would reflect some discount to "everything going right".

It's not the rollout schedule equivalent to a profit warning from the company yet, but that will come and like interest rate cuts, there's usually more than one.

That's what we will likely see. The writing is now clearly on the wall if you choose to look.

NBNMyths · 13 December 2012

medicowallet said:
The price of ADSL when it was introduced was HIGH and the uses were LOW

The price of NBN is EQUIVALENT and the uses are EQUIVALENT.

So the uptake should be high, as DSLAMS are removed and people are forced to use NBN instead of ADSL..

NBN will get a decent uptake, however, it still does not address the fact that backhaul will be a problem, and that for a household user, there are no current uses for it.

AND that the uses in the future will increase consumption, and decrease local employment.

2 examples of the latter are

1. DVD stores gone
2. Photo processing stores gone (as the chinese take uploads from australia, PRINT the photos much more cheaply, and POST them to our houses much more cheaply than the current firms can)

I fail to see many small businesses that require better than ADSL2 to function, or any medium to large who do not already have access to internet that is viable.

Yes, NBN takeup rate is essentially irrelevant since the copper will start being deactivated in 18 months.

Yes, for a typical household user today, there is little need for a 100/40 connection, as was the case for ADSL in 2002. However this will inevitably change in the future. It won't be long before cloud storage really takes off for both small business and consumers, and that's where the NBN will really come into its own, offering fast upload and download speeds, compared to FTTN (or even ADSL2) which can provide decent download speeds but pathetic upload speeds.

It's not true that SMEs that already need fast broadband can get it. Or at least get it at a reasonable price. It would currently cost me over $5,000 connection, plus over $1000 a month to get a 100/40 connection, while on the NBN I would get a free connection, and a service for $100 a month.

Backhaul is already being improved (Our overseas capacity will be 12x higher in 3 years compared to today, just counting already planned/underway upgrades). There is also a growing amount of local storage/caching making the overseas links less important.

It's a pity that the purchase of overseas content will take away some local jobs, but no matter how our broadband network is improved (ie the NBN or the coalition's FTTN plan), that outcome will be the same.

I don't think standard photo processing will go off shore to any great degree. It's pretty hard to beat Harvey Norman/Big W/K-Mart's 9c prints, especially when you add a few dollars for postage from China!

Calliope · 13 December 2012

The Chinese can give NBN a lesson in efficiency.

IT may be a little slower but China's national broadband network will reach 10 times more households than Labor's rollout at less than one-third the price.

During the next three years, Beijing plans to replace the existing copper wire network that serves the nation's 150 million households with internet access with a fibre-to-the-home broadband network - the same technology used by Labor's National Broadband Network.

The plan shares striking similarities with the NBN but is so far costing China's state-owned telcos only $10 billion.

Labor's NBN will cost $37.4bn, with plans to reach 12.2 million households across the country by 2021.

Chinese authorities aim for speeds reaching 20 megabits per second in city areas by 2015, and 4Mbps in developing regions.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...the-cost-of-ours/story-e6frgaif-1226535736511

NBNMyths · 13 December 2012

Calliope said:
The Chinese can give NBN a lesson in efficiency.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...the-cost-of-ours/story-e6frgaif-1226535736511

sarcasm

Wow, who would have thought you could do things in China so cheaply. If only the rest of the World knew about this fact, companies could start offshoring their manufacturing operations there. Oh, hang on.....

/sarcasm

Well, I suppose when you're paying the workers $1 a day, and the equipment is being supplied by the quasi-state owned company, then you're always going to get a bargain!

So should NBN Co start paying their contractors $1/day, or just import workers from China?

Calliope · 13 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
So should NBN Co start paying their contractors $1/day, or just import workers from China?

Sarcasm. As a government-biased spin doctor surely you know that when the dead hand of a Labor government and the Conroys and the Quigleys get their bureaucratic hands on a major project, there are bound to be massive cost and time over-runs.

Perhaps you should turn your expertise to whitewashing the Gillard/Wilson/AWU scandals.

finnsk · 13 December 2012

My dad has fiber network where he is living with unlimited download and unlimited voip service to landline (Denmark) costing approx. $35.00/month.

NBNMyths · 13 December 2012

Calliope said:
Sarcasm. As a government-biased spin doctor surely you know that when the dead hand of a Labor government and the Conroys and the Quigleys get their bureaucratic hands on a major project, there are bound to be massive cost and time over-runs.

Perhaps you should turn your expertise to whitewashing the Gillard/Wilson/AWU scandals.

I think you'll find that Mr Quigley is a highly successful and respected businessman in the telecommunications arena.

I have no interest in Conroy/Gillard/AWU etc. Personally, I'd prefer if we got Kev back.

Although given that the Lib's last two orchestrated witch-hunts (ie utegate and slipper) have turned out to be less than stellar, I'm not holding my breath for this one to come to anything either.

Aussiejeff · 14 December 2012

NBNMyths said:
I think you'll find that Mr Quigley is a highly successful and respected businessman in the telecommunications arena.

I have no interest in Conroy/Gillard/AWU etc. Personally, I'd prefer if we got Kev back.

Although given that the Lib's last two orchestrated witch-hunts (ie utegate and slipper) have turned out to be less than stellar, I'm not holding my breath for this one to come to anything either.

You could try holding your breath till the next election.

The future of NBN may become clearer then....

NBN Rollout Scrapped

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