NBN Rollout Scrapped

Smurf1976 · 7 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
Personally, I have no interest in the backup battery box. I have a cordless phone anyway, so it doesn't work in a blackout. If I want to call 000, I use my mobile. But there are many people (particularly elderly) who use a corded phone and expect it to work in a blackout, hence the battery backup system that is part of the trial.

I've been to a few emergency planning meetings etc in the past and one point which practically everyone forgets is that in a real emergency of a widespread nature (fires, flood, major power failure, important structural collapse or anything else which impacts a large number of people) the mobile phone network will be effectively useless and must not be relied upon for critical communications during the emergency.

Major incidents generate a large spike in mobile network traffic, and the distributed nature of the network and connected devices is such that it can not meet more than a very small percentage of demand under emergency conditions.

So far as the power backup is concerned, if there's a need for a service tech to replace the battery when it fails then quite simply that's a poor design of the equipment. It ought to be designed for DIY replacement - it's a battery after all, we're not launching any rockets here. Presumably this is the case.

So far as location of the equipment is concerned, I can't see any real issues with that as long as NBN Co doesn't impose any silly rules.

joea · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
I usually ignore anything about the NBN published by the Australian, since their record on accuracy is.....ummm.... less than perfect....

And I certainly ignore anything about the NBN written by self-annointed "independent telecommunications expert" Kevin Morgan, whose only "claim to fame" was allegedly helping design the atrocious privatisation of Telstra for the ALP, later implemented by the Libs. He still argues against the structural separation of Telstra, perhaps embarrassed by the 15 years of problems caused by it's privatisation as a vertical monopoly.

As far as I'm aware, Kevin seems to do little else but bag the NBN is newspaper columns, which he has done constantly for the last 3 years. He has no qualifications of which I'm aware, has no business website and apart from claiming to be a former advisor to Kim Beasley, has no public resumÃ© of positions or who, aside from the occasional newspaper, he has ever provided communications consultancy services for.

So your say that only comment from you and "The Man on the Monument " are correct??

No doubt you sit on the right hand of God.(Gingerella)

joea

Calliope · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
I usually ignore anything about the NBN published by the Australian, since their record on accuracy is.....ummm....

Your mate Conroy shares your view, and he is working on reining in The Australian and their inconvenient truths.

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
Your mate Conroy shares your view, and he is working on reining in The Australian and their inconvenient truths.

HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.

Truth? The Oz wouldn't know the truth if they fell over it on the way to a Liberal party conference!

I've lost count of the Oz's NBN trash, but here are a few from memory....

There was the lie about homes requiring $3,000 of rewiring (still uncorrected)

The relentless pursuit of Mike Quigley, which amounted to nothing other than smearing his good name. (No apologies provided)

A month or so ago they ran a piece which claimed entry-level NBN services cost double current entry-level ADSL services, when in fact the reverse is true (Still uncorrected).

They have corrected one of their anti-NBN rants though. After a huge-headline story claiming that a SA school would have to pay $200,000 to connect to the NBN, the next day they ran a tiny correction saying that the school would, in fact, be connected for free. Well, they were close.....

drsmith · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
The "document" they are about to release is the updated corporate plan.

There will undoubtedly be delays contained therin, because we already know about them, and they have happened since the old 2010 plan was released.

There may well be some cost blowouts in there, but I doubt they will be substantial. If I had to guess, I'd say it's still below the original $43bn target, but above the revised $37bn target.

I would also say that revenue estimates will be increased, given that we now have takeup stats which are showing that NBN users are choosing much faster speed tiers than was predicted in the 2010 corporate plan. eg: The 2010 plan predicted only 8% would choose 100Mbps ($37 p/m), but almost 40% have chosen it in practise. The 2010 plan predicted 55% would choose the base 12Mbps ($24 p/m), but only 12% have, with the rest taking up higher speeds providing more revenue.

Overall, I don't think there will be any massive changes to the Govt equity required or the payback time.....fingers crossed....

Looks like you've had the inside tip,

There are positive early signs that the NBN will deliver higher revenue earlier than expected.

The first people connected to the fibre network are paying higher revenue than the amounts built into the original assumptions. They are buying plans with faster download and upload rates than first expected. That could be because they are early adopters who always want the latest technology.

However, if the patterns of take-up are the norm, the NBN Co could reach break-even more quickly than forecast.

but,

Only 1 million premises will be completed or under construction by June 2013 compared with the original plan of 1.7 million.

and,

Conroy has said that about 15,000 Australians are now using the NBN, compared with a 2010 forecast of 150,000 connections.

The 2010 corporate plan predicted the NBN would turn cash flow positive in 2021 when it would generate $48 million in pretax profits and free cash flows of $1.5 billion. It will be interesting to see what that number is today.

Your fingers are safe, for now.

http://afr.com/p/business/chanticleer/nbn_co_update_plenty_of_figuring_pPTdFGHprI2HGID08bDMsM

Calliope · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.

He who laughs last etc. Labor government enterprise is an oxymoron. I suppose you are still laughing at the "success" of Pink Bats and BER where bureaucratic mismanagement succeeded in wasting billions. HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa. The Australian (not the ABC) continually exposed this wastage. It was your mob who was trying to mislead the taxpayers. Contractors naturally see NBN Co and their bureaucratic management as a soft touch and will bleed them dry. Billions will go down the drain.

The Australian is also hot on the trail of the Gillard/Wilson/Blewitt gang. This is also forcing your heroes Gillard and Conroy to try to step up the process of censoring the Australian

The Australian is the only news outlet that will expose wastage by NBN Co.

drsmith · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
He who laughs last etc. Labor government enterprise is an oxymoron. I suppose you are still laughing at the "success" of Pink Bats and BER where bureaucratic mismanagement succeeded in wasting billions. HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.

One thing we can be sure of is that Labor will try to hide the problems for as long as they can.

It will be interesting inparticular to see how the rollout schedule continues to slip.

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
He who laughs last etc. Labor government enterprise is an oxymoron. I suppose you are still laughing at the "success" of Pink Bats and BER where bureaucratic mismanagement succeeded in wasting billions. HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa. The Australian (not the ABC) continually exposed this wastage. It was your mob who was trying to mislead the taxpayers. Contractors naturally see NBN Co and their bureaucratic management as a soft touch and will bleed them dry. Billions will go down the drain.

The Australian is also hot on the trail of the Gillard/Wilson/Blewitt gang. This is also forcing your heroes Gillard and Conroy to try to step up the process of censoring the Australian

The Australian is the only news outlet that will expose wastage by NBN Co.

Strawmen.

I'm no huge fan of Conroy, and I much prefer Rudd to Gillard. I never listen to ABC radio, and I rarely watch ABC television.

There is a difference between censoring the media, and ensuring they report objectively, rather than with a clear political bias, which even a strident conservative will admit The Australian is guilty of.

I have no issue with the media exposing Government wastage/corruption, although the Oz's attacks on insulation and BER went way beyond the reality. (eg: the name alone is misleading, since the "pink bats" are/were fine. It was the cheap nasty Chinese foil, and horrible cellulose fibre insulation that was (and always has been) the problem).

I am also a little curious as to why The Australian et al do not pursue the plethora of broken promises from the three "new" state Coalition governments as much as they pursue the Labor Governments. Surely, it couldn't be political bias.... Maybe you'd like to rationalise that for me?

Calliope · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
I am also a little curious as to why The Australian et al do not pursue the plethora of broken promises from the three "new" state Coalition governments as much as they pursue the Labor Governments. Surely, it couldn't be political bias.... Maybe you'd like to rationalise that for me?

But you don't read News Ltd papers, so how would you know? The local Courier Mail is very critical of the Newman Government. As for rationalising their policies to a Labor spin doctor...sorry it can't be done.

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
But you don't read News Ltd papers, so how would you know? The local Courier Mail is very critical of the Newman Government. As for rationalising their policies to a Labor spin doctor...sorry it can't be done.

Yes I do. We get the Daily Telegraph at work each day (alongside the SMH). I have given up reading Bolt and Akerman though. I've decided that reading the deluded rants of right wingnuts isn't good for my blood pressure.

If I didn't read the Tele, how would I know when they are lying about the NBN? :

sails · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
But you don't read News Ltd papers, so how would you know?

Good one, Calliope - Myths wouldn't be politically biased, would he?...

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

sails said:
Good one, Calliope - Myths wouldn't be politically biased, would he?...

I don't think I'm more politically biased than anyone else. But the point is that I'm not a supposedly objective media outlet. News Ltd has a journalistic code of conduct, which the Oz is supposed to adhere to. They are also supposed to follow the objectivity guidelines laid down by the Press Council, since News is a signatory. Perhaps they've forgotten.

dutchie · 8 August 2012

http://m.smh.com.au/it-pro/governme...nveils-new-corporate-plan-20120808-23tuh.html

NBN Co unveiled its new corporate plan today. It reveals the NBN will cost $4.6b more than forecast to build.

Senator Conroy says it will take six months longer than forecast to build the NBN.

Really - who would have thought.

This is just the beginning.

awg · 8 August 2012

I heard just a few sentences of Conroy muttering...the only thing I heard was him trumpeting that NBN have more or less fixed price contracts, so they shouldnt get burned. (my interpretation)

However, to my knowledge, many of these contracts are with entities/joint ventures formed for the purpose of doing this work.

So in the instance of them being unable to perform the contract to price means they wear it, not NBN.

In the real world however, when a major contractor has a cashflow situation, what happens is you get piles of dirt, and lots of furious unpaid subbies.

Example..the head contractor for a section of bypass Pacific Highway near Newcastle has gone bust.
The NSW Govt wont stump up, the subbies are broke, no-one knows when the road will be built.

Building the major infrastructure is only part of the battle, if they require access to each premises, that will be a logistical nightmare...I was a technician for years, and imo no-one on the planet can accurately cost the amount of time wastage caused by extensive customer interaction

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

dutchie said:
http://m.smh.com.au/it-pro/governme...nveils-new-corporate-plan-20120808-23tuh.html

NBN Co unveiled its new corporate plan today. It reveals the NBN will cost $4.6b more than forecast to build.

Senator Conroy says it will take six months longer than forecast to build the NBN.

Really - who would have thought.

This is just the beginning.

Actually, (according to the article linked from your link) it will cost $1.4bn more to build, plus $3.2bn more in opex, due to increased use of Telstra backhaul and the Optus deal.

Even adding both the capex/opex increases together, it's still well below the original $43bn budget. Maybe NBN Co should have just left it there for their 2010 corp plan, instead of reducing it to $36.9! But then there will be substantially more revenue earned (because customers are choosing higher-end plans), so the projected return has increased from 7 to 7.1%.

There's a lot more certainty now than in 2010, with the Telstra and Optus deals signed, equipment supply contracts signed, all of the satellites and wireless contracts signed, and fibre rollout contracts for 30% of the project signed. They have data about takeup percentages and speeds which they did not have in 2010. NBN Co should now have a very good idea of both their costs and income.

I'm a happy camper. My finger crossing apparently worked!

Smurf1976 · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
I have no issue with the media exposing Government wastage/corruption, although the Oz's attacks on insulation and BER went way beyond the reality. (eg: the name alone is misleading, since the "pink bats" are/were fine. It was the cheap nasty Chinese foil, and horrible cellulose fibre insulation that was (and always has been) the problem).

Agreed that actual Pink Batts are a quality product which ought not be rubbished due to the insulation stuff ups of government.

I would question however the logic in importing huge volumes of insulation from China, Germany and other places and then subsequently depressing the market for the Australian manufacturers which historically dominated the local market. That is essentially what the insulation scheme achieved.

As for the safety problems, well that largely comes down to a lack of proper training for workers and a lack of proper care an attention. There's nasty things to be found in roofs, live electricity being one of them, and it's no place for inexperienced workers with no supervision.

Smurf1976 · 8 August 2012

awg said:
In the real world however, when a major contractor has a cashflow situation, what happens is you get piles of dirt, and lots of furious unpaid subbies.

Example..the head contractor for a section of bypass Pacific Highway near Newcastle has gone bust.
The NSW Govt wont stump up, the subbies are broke, no-one knows when the road will be built.

I know what you mean but in the case of the NBN I'd be expecting a bail out of the contractor given the huge political commitment to building it. Eg spend the $ and keep the issues out of the public eye rather than allowing delays because someone went broke. My guess is that's what will happen...

Calliope · 8 August 2012

NBNMyths said:
If I didn't read the Tele, how would I know when they are lying about the NBN? :

Yes. You were the one who complained to the press council about the Tele. What was your agenda Jamie? Just being a good citizen?:shake:

NBNMyths · 8 August 2012

Calliope said:
Yes. You were the one who complained to the press council about the Tele. What was your agenda Jamie? Just being a good citizen?:shake:

I actually complained to the paper, and was annoyed by the arrogant dismissal from one of the editors who was unconcerned that they got it wrong and refused to publish a correction.

Thus, I thought I'd teach them a lesson in the PC. I thoroughly enjoyed the verbal drubbing dished out by the PC members to the Tele's rep editor during the hearing. Their NBN articles have been far more accurate since then, I note....

sptrawler · 8 August 2012

Well we are up and running again, at last Conroy is starting to front up. But Quigley doesn't look happy.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-costs-blow-out-by-billions-20120808-23u0f.html

I think this will be a big election issue, that is if the election goes out to 12 months.

NBN Rollout Scrapped

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