Yes nbnmyths, today I told my daughter, who is completely wireless, if it goes by your house and it's free get it pulled in, your tax is paying for it.
I did the same with foxtel 20yrs ago $19.00 free connection 1 months subsciption. Haven't had it since the month finished, but the connections good.
I wonder if it will end up the same for her, 20years later superceded.
Actually my other daughter is deaf, doesn't use a phone, I have told her the same.
So the connection rate should be great, service take up rate?
Ignoring for a moment the fact that telcos, Governments and physicists/electrical engineers have made it blatantly clear that wireless does not have the capability to replace a fixed network in urban areas...
I don't deny that some households will opt for wireless-only connections, and the NBN assume 16% of households will take that option (up from 8% today).
NBN Co have made assumptions on what is known now, historic trends and future predictions about internet usage. And when you look at those, it's hard not to accept what NBN have to say. There's not really anyone in the industry that disputes them.
Let me summarise and comment on some known facts:
According to the ABS, the average monthly download is now 18GB. This has been growing at about 50% per year (compounded) since statistics began.
The largest download offered by Telstra over wireless broadband is 12GB/month.
The biggest wireless broadband carrier in Australia doesn't even offer a plan that copes with anywhere near the average current download.
Also according to the ABS, for 2010 the number of ADSL connections grew by 300,000 but in the same period, the number of new dwellings only grew by 160,000.
There is no decline in the number of fixed connections. In fact, despite an almost saturated market, they are growing faster than new premises.
Telstra's 12GB wireless broadband plan costs a staggering $90/month, and will provide typical speeds of maybe 10Mbps once upgraded to LTE.
Exetel's entry level NBN plan provides 20GB of data, at 12Mbps speeds for $34.50 per month.
Wireless is slower, offers about half the data volume and is three times more expensive than the NBN. That's a lot of money to pay for mobility.
Now let me comment on the mobility argument. As I wrote, I agree that for some people, wireless will be a suitable solution. But they are a small minority for a few reasons.
Many young singles are heavily into video, music etc. These types of uses are unsuitable for wireless broadband. Download 2 movies from iTunes, and you've used almost all of Telstra's biggest plan.
For families, why on earth would you go wireless? The idea of mobility is gone, because as soon as Dad takes the broadband dongle to work with him, it leaves the household with no internet at all. You would have to be mad to spend $90/month for 12GB just to leave it at home, when you could get massively better value by just connecting to the NBN.
Same for businesses. Why on earth would any premises-based business have a wireless connection instead of a fixed one? What would they gain, apart from a much bigger bill?
Then there's the coverage problem. I live relatively close to Sydney, but even Telstra's NextG can only deliver me less than 1Mbps at home because of poor coverage. It only takes a hill to destroy the signal, and there are millions of people in similar situations.