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I hope it is prohibitive, so that they just continue with the NBN as it stood.
I prefer a cheaper option, but to change it now would be difficult.
MW
It's yet to be seen how much Telstra will charge for their copper now in order for the Coalition's plan to go ahead.
A hot Milo and a lie down might help with the bile.You demonstrate a lack of understanding of the cost and funding for the NBN.
On the substance of updates, each and every setback with the rollout simply makes the final targets more fanciful.Cost:
Firstly, the cost is not "unknown". It was first estimated at $43bn by KPMG, which was assessed by Greenhill-Caliburn and being found to be reasonable. The capex forecast was then reduced to $37bn, and later back up slightly after some rollout changes that resulted from the Opts and Telstra deals being signed off.
Since then, the actual cost of the rollout has begun coming in, and is broadly on budget. The AFR reported last week from a leaked draft report that peak funding required had increased slightly (by $1.6bn or ~5%), although that is not public so the accuracy is unknown, and there was no mention of a capex increase.
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It doesn't matter how the money is sourced or the spend relative to other areas. It's fundamentally a question of the most productive use of that money.Funding:
The NBN is funded as an asset on the budget, from the issue of bonds. The bonds are to be repaid from user revenue, not tax/consolidated revenue. So spending on the NBN has absolutely no effect on the spending for the other things you mentioned.
That aside, the NBN will be a benefit to health and education, with many identified uses and huge support amongst the healthcare and education communities.
And, for argument's sake, even if you assume that the NBN was an expense to the budget, it pales into insignificance alongside the health and education budgets. Over the 10-year build of the $40bn NBN, the Govt will spend $1.2 trillion on health, and $500bn on education.
One of the advantages of the Coalition plan is the underlying flexibility in relation to the copper network.It's yet to be seen how much Telstra will charge for their copper now in order for the Coalition's plan to go ahead.
A hot Milo and a lie down might help with the bile.
On the substance of updates, each and every setback with the rollout simply makes the final targets more fanciful.
It doesn't matter how the money is sourced or the spend relative to other areas. It's fundamentally a question of the most productive use of that money.
One of the advantages of the Coalition plan is the underlying flexibility in relation to the copper network.
That was ultimately a very short range twice downward revised target in the context of an imminent election.Since the Telstra deal was done, the delays in the rollout have become much, much smaller. They met their last target. Now while that was a revised-down target, it was still met.
If all goes well which it is not.I disagree. That money is only being borrowed to build the NBN, and the NBN will earn revenue to pay it back.
With the current NBN, the setbacks aren't ifs, their facts and it will be interesting to see what else comes to light with a new government.I don't know where you get that statement from. If Telstra play hard-ball like they did in 2007, there's no flexibility to be had. They'll have to bite the bullet and go with FTTP, or do nothing. That's not flexibility, it's a complete change in policy either way.
From this point forward, it may well be a combination Labor's vision and the Coalition's priorities in government that delivers a practical outcome.There are plenty of things we should have but don't get. We must have priorities. We deserve better internet speeds and we will get them
From this point forward, it may well be a combination Labor's vision and the Coalition's priorities in government that delivers a practical outcome.
If the Coalition can deliver something better than a Déjà vu of Labor's rollout, it will help them at the next election, not hinder them.It wont surprise me to see key NBN staff leave due to the workload and unrealistic targets.
That was ultimately a very short range twice downward revised target in the context of an imminent election.
What about the June 2014 target ?
If all goes well which it is not.
With the current NBN, the setbacks aren't ifs, their facts and it will be interesting to see what else comes to light with a new government.
My point though was in relation to the copper under the Coalition's plan where it can't effectively be remediated.
So you wouldnt pay the 5k to get it hooked up?We'll know about the June 2014 target in June 2014, but I seriously doubt it will be met now. If you were SIlcar et al, would you be ramping up your staff and training them in FTTP rollouts knowing that it's coming to an end (as opposed to the ramp-up phase of a 10-year build)? I wouldn't.
Even if it doesn't "go well", it will still earn income. It's already earning income, with takeup higher than forecast and ARPU higher than forecast. The worst that can happen is a delay in revenue, leading to an increase in peak funding required and a delay in providing the return. But the return will still occur.
It will be interesting to see what happens if the Coalition find that bigs parts of the copper is in worse condition than they expect. Now that will be a budget blowout to be seen.....at least if their claims about the 'rea' cost of the NBN are true.
On the upside (for me at least), I was chatting to a Telstra tech the other day as he fixed my neighbour's line. He told me that the most likely spot for a node in my street is the pillar located almost across the road from me. Perhaps only 40m copper loop, and my copper is only a few years old to boot. I'll be very interested to see what speed I can get over FTTN, given that it doesn't get much better than that. On the downside, my neighbour won't be happy about the "fridge" in his front garden.
So you wouldnt pay the 5k to get it hooked up?
Whats the story with tpg rolling out fiber?
Regarding ramp-up, Syd to some extent at least appears to contradict that view,We'll know about the June 2014 target in June 2014, but I seriously doubt it will be met now. If you were SIlcar et al, would you be ramping up your staff and training them in FTTP rollouts knowing that it's coming to an end (as opposed to the ramp-up phase of a 10-year build)? I wouldn't.
My understanding is pretty much all the contracts for the initial 3 year rollout have been signed.
Is that expectation still based on completing the rollout on due date in 2021 ?Even if it doesn't "go well", it will still earn income. It's already earning income, with takeup higher than forecast and ARPU higher than forecast. The worst that can happen is a delay in revenue, leading to an increase in peak funding required and a delay in providing the return. But the return will still occur.
If FTTP costs as much as the Coalition says, it costs that much regardless of who is in office.It will be interesting to see what happens if the Coalition find that bigs parts of the copper is in worse condition than they expect. Now that will be a budget blowout to be seen.....at least if their claims about the 'rea' cost of the NBN are true.
Where are you and your neighbour on the current rollout schedule and how confident are you of it being done in accordance with that schedule ?On the upside (for me at least), I was chatting to a Telstra tech the other day as he fixed my neighbour's line. He told me that the most likely spot for a node in my street is the pillar located almost across the road from me. Perhaps only 40m copper loop, and my copper is only a few years old to boot. I'll be very interested to see what speed I can get over FTTN, given that it doesn't get much better than that. On the downside, my neighbour won't be happy about the "fridge" in his front garden.
Regarding ramp-up, Syd to some extent at least appears to contradict that view,
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...21778&page=134&p=793488&viewfull=1#post793488
Perhaps you could clarify the specific period you refer to when you say pretty much all the contracts for the initial 3 year rollout have been signed.I think it's fairly obvious that myths means that there is no growth over what the current rollout contracts require.
Regarding ramp-up, Syd to some extent at least appears to contradict that view,
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...21778&page=134&p=793488&viewfull=1#post793488
Is that expectation still based on completing the rollout on due date in 2021 ?
NBN Co has so far has demonstrated that it can't keep to rollout targets on a year to year basis let alone over the life of the rollout.
Depending on the level of delay and consequent cost blowouts, revenue may never recover the cost of the project.
Let me put it this way. If a project with the same history was seeking $1.6bn in private equity for the same reasons, would you invest ?
If FTTP costs as much as the Coalition says, it costs that much regardless of who is in office.
Where are you and your neighbour on the current rollout schedule and how confident are you of it being done in accordance with that schedule ?
You might me one of the many that gets faster fixed line broadband sooner under the Coalition.
On another aspect, I'm curious as to how the rollout going into MDU's and whether NBN Co has switched from fibre to the premise to fibre to the basement.
How then does this impact negatively on the rollout schedule to June 30 2014 and if it does, why wouldn't that be reflected in NBN Co's rollout forecasts bearing in mind our 3-year electoral cycle ?I think you're mis-interpreting. Yes, the contracts for the next 3 years are signed (with options to extend). But the contractors are still ramping up their workforce and will be until 2015 (according to the corp plan). While there is some risk of there not being a renewal, if you were a contractor you would be considering that it's likely that rollout contracts will continue for ~10 years, not just the 3 you are currently contracted for. You would therefore be more willing to wear the expense of training a workforce for that 10 years. However if you KNOW that the work will end in three, then you'll train up the minimum possible number of people for the next 3 years, and perhaps even wear a penalty for being late, or use the excuse that it was too hard to recruit people etc etc.
I know it's very much a hypothetical question, but would you personally invest specifically on Labor's plan from where it currently stands, rollout delays and all ?Yes, I would invest in the NBN personally, if it were guaranteed by both sides of politics to continue on the current technology/regulatory basis.
I know it's very much a hypothetical question, but would you personally invest specifically on Labor's plan from where it currently stands, rollout delays and all ?
I'm also looking forward to the outcry of Fridge Nodes appearing out front of people's homes and how likely local councils are to play ball with granting permits for the work that is required. Will councils try to get some form of "rent" for use of public land? The 6.30pm trash news shows will have a field day with property owners loosing thousands of dollars in value due to the unsightly Fridge Node out front.
I'm relieved you're only tempted.I would be tempted to invest because: ........
How then does this impact negatively on the rollout schedule to June 30 2014 and if it does, why wouldn't that be reflected in NBN Co's rollout forecasts bearing in mind our 3-year electoral cycle ?
That appeared to be the context of your statement.
I know it's very much a hypothetical question, but would you personally invest specifically on Labor's plan from where it currently stands, rollout delays and all ?
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