Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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1/3 of the cost? Hard to believe.
NBN Rollout Scrapped
- Thread starter Garpal Gumnut
- Start date
That's best case scenario costing on Libs vs worst case scenario costing on Labor. As I said previously, it is easy to present figures when no one bothers to question them any more.
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On the topic of figures, the discount rate applied to the vast majority of NBN Co $11bn of payments to Telstra is 10%.
From Malcolm Turnbull's background papers,
From Malcolm Turnbull's background papers,
Very poor analogy.
Unlike tech equipment, which always gets cheaper over time due to economies of scale, the cost of rolling out a physical network only gets more expensive over time.
Most of the cost involved in building a FTTP NBN is the physical work of laying the cables, not the cables themselves. So while building FTTP today would cost ~$40bn, building the same network in 20 years will probably cost ~$80bn. On top of the $15-odd billion you'd then throw away in FTTN equipment, cabinets and construction labour.
Oh, it's better than the 2010 policy, no doubt at all:
Improved headline download speeds; Maintaining NBN Co as a wholesaler; maintaining the rural wireless/sat components; the requirement that the FTTN network be provisioned for a future upgrade to FTTP (so at least they won't have to re-run fibre sections).
However, there are also bad points:
Real speed still highly variable based on distance and copper quality; Poor value for money (cost for capability); Low upload speeds; Removal of universal pricing, to be replaced with caps. (In practise, this inevitably means regional areas will end up paying more than metro areas.)
But the improvement in the policy since 2010 is perhaps the best evidence of just how substandard it still is. In 2010, Turnbull said that 12Mbps was enough for any application.
Yet here we are just 3 years later, and he's promising a policy that offers between 25 and 100Mbps. His idea of "adequate" has increased by between 2x and 8x in under 3 years, and we now have 44% of NBN customers choosing 100Mbps speeds.
In 2010, he said there was no foreseeable home usage that would require more than 12Mbps. Last year, the standard for 4kTV was released, requiring 28Mbps per channel. In the next couple of years, 8kTV will be ratified, probably requiring 60-70Mbps per channel.
The thought that by 2020 "25megs will be more than enough" for many users is utterly absurd.
Think back a decade to 128k ADSL and ask yourself whether you could have imagined that a typical broadband connection of 12Mbps (100x faster!) would be struggling to cope with demand today. Do we really think that demand will suddenly plateau now? I think not.
The coalition (and many on this forum) seem to forget that it takes 10-odd years to replace a network. It is madness to build one provisioned for the demands of today. You build one provisioned for the estimated demands in 10, 20, 30 years time.
A very telling factor is the absolute lack of support amongst the ITC community for the coalition policy. These are the people best qualified to advise on the best solution, and they are (almost to a man) highly critical of the plan to scale back to FTTN. Every projection I have seen from industry heavyweights (like Cisco) indicate that there is no foreseeable end for the demand for higher speeds. yet the Coalition policy is essentially banking on such an end occurring quite soon.
Mark my words. In 10 years, we will massively regret the decision to go with FTTN today.
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I still can't believe MT when he says the NoBN will be able to provide EVERYONE with a minimum of 25Mbs by 2016 - unless there's a little * with the up to again.
There is no way they could install the 70,000+ nodes in just 3 years. It will probably take a year just to get the vendors to the beauty pageant and road test the nodes. Love to see how they cope with the Australian summers.
I'd also say after the first year we'll have an idea of just how much extra spending will be required to fix up the copper. Seems a bit crazy to me to argue you'll build it cheaper because you use the existing copper, only to then have to replace a large portion of it. May as well run fiber then - oh wait you could maybe get that if you're willing to pay around $5000.
Will be interesting to see how the bush handles this. The Nationals are going to have to talk fast and use a lot of snake oil to try and sell this to their constituents.
$29 Billion spent on a network that will probably be too slow before they even finish it. Crap upload speeds will kill off many applications.
There is no way they could install the 70,000+ nodes in just 3 years. It will probably take a year just to get the vendors to the beauty pageant and road test the nodes. Love to see how they cope with the Australian summers.
I'd also say after the first year we'll have an idea of just how much extra spending will be required to fix up the copper. Seems a bit crazy to me to argue you'll build it cheaper because you use the existing copper, only to then have to replace a large portion of it. May as well run fiber then - oh wait you could maybe get that if you're willing to pay around $5000.
Will be interesting to see how the bush handles this. The Nationals are going to have to talk fast and use a lot of snake oil to try and sell this to their constituents.
$29 Billion spent on a network that will probably be too slow before they even finish it. Crap upload speeds will kill off many applications.
After the brief honeymoon period from leaking their policy to News Ltd a couple of days early, the coalition 'NBN' plan has become the subject of almost universal criticism, which has now moved on to comedy and ridicule.
And it just keeps on getting better:
And it just keeps on getting better:
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I'm looking forward to a real laugh on Sept 14th.......
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This just in:
It’s good you've been able to acknowledge the likelihood of a Coalition Government coming to power at the next election and smile on the same day.
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Myths,
Responses to your earlier points are highlighted in blue. This was more time efficient than fiddling with quote tags on individual points.
Oh, it's better than the 2010 policy, no doubt at all:
Improved headline download speeds; Maintaining NBN Co as a wholesaler; maintaining the rural wireless/sat components; the requirement that the FTTN network be provisioned for a future upgrade to FTTP (so at least they won't have to re-run fibre sections).
An acknowledgement of the upgradability. Good.
However, there are also bad points:
Real speed still highly variable based on distance and copper quality; Poor value for money (cost for capability); Low upload speeds; Removal of universal pricing, to be replaced with caps. (In practise, this inevitably means regional areas will end up paying more than metro areas.)
What about the time value of money ?
With cost for capability, value is not linearly proportional to bandwidth.
Upload speeds: This is one where I haven't seen much commentary.
With regard to regional pricing, the Coalition's wholesale price structure is cheaper overall, so that's only relative to their urban prices, not Labor's.
But the improvement in the policy since 2010 is perhaps the best evidence of just how substandard it still is. In 2010, Turnbull said that 12Mbps was enough for any application.
In 2010, the NBN was going to pass 1.3 million premises by June 30 2013.
Yet here we are just 3 years later, and he's promising a policy that offers between 25 and 100Mbps.
Proof that technological advances in data transfer through copper are still ongoing.
His idea of "adequate" has increased by between 2x and 8x in under 3 years, and we now have 44% of NBN customers choosing 100Mbps speeds.
44% of what proportion with an NBN service available of what proportion of the rollout schedule actually achieved ?
To what extent is this early adopters ?
In 2010, he said there was no foreseeable home usage that would require more than 12Mbps. Last year, the standard for 4kTV was released, requiring 28Mbps per channel. In the next couple of years, 8kTV will be ratified, probably requiring 60-70Mbps per channel.
Timing of large scale future market penetration of 4 or 8k HDTV beyond niche ?
The thought that by 2020 "25megs will be more than enough" for many users is utterly absurd.
The thought that by 2020, Labor's NBN rollout will be anywhere near complete is utterly absurd.
Think back a decade to 128k ADSL and ask yourself whether you could have imagined that a typical broadband connection of 12Mbps (100x faster!) would be struggling to cope with demand today. Do we really think that demand will suddenly plateau now? I think not.
Take myself back a decade and I was paying the same for that 128k ADSL with a download limit of a few gig to where am now paying a similar amount in nominal terms for a service approximately 50x better in both speed and download limits, driven by technological advancement. The problem here with Labor's plan is that the rollout cost of the technology (fibre) is such that for the capital cost to be recovered and a ROI, many households may be priced out of the higher end plans which you claim to be so essential. This too in a constantly evolving technological environment.
The coalition (and many on this forum) seem to forget that it takes 10-odd years to replace a network. It is madness to build one provisioned for the demands of today. You build one provisioned for the estimated demands in 10, 20, 30 years time.
It doesn't take 10 years (or more) to achieve significant improvements by assessing economic merit and prioritising upgrades on that basis.
A very telling factor is the absolute lack of support amongst the ITC community for the coalition policy. These are the people best qualified to advise on the best solution, and they are (almost to a man) highly critical of the plan to scale back to FTTN. Every projection I have seen from industry heavyweights (like Cisco) indicate that there is no foreseeable end for the demand for higher speeds. yet the Coalition policy is essentially banking on such an end occurring quite soon.
The Coalition with its policy is not banking on such an end occurring quite soon at all. Also, who is this ITC community ?
Executives of other companies rolling out networks around the world or niche enthusiasts with an interest in the area ?
To the extent that it's the latter, their perspective may differ to that of the public at large.
As a final point Myths, have you read in full the background document behind the Coalition's plan ?
While it's a political document (all documents of this nature are), as someone with an interest in the area, you would find it interesting.
Responses to your earlier points are highlighted in blue. This was more time efficient than fiddling with quote tags on individual points.
Oh, it's better than the 2010 policy, no doubt at all:
Improved headline download speeds; Maintaining NBN Co as a wholesaler; maintaining the rural wireless/sat components; the requirement that the FTTN network be provisioned for a future upgrade to FTTP (so at least they won't have to re-run fibre sections).
An acknowledgement of the upgradability. Good.
However, there are also bad points:
Real speed still highly variable based on distance and copper quality; Poor value for money (cost for capability); Low upload speeds; Removal of universal pricing, to be replaced with caps. (In practise, this inevitably means regional areas will end up paying more than metro areas.)
What about the time value of money ?
With cost for capability, value is not linearly proportional to bandwidth.
Upload speeds: This is one where I haven't seen much commentary.
With regard to regional pricing, the Coalition's wholesale price structure is cheaper overall, so that's only relative to their urban prices, not Labor's.
But the improvement in the policy since 2010 is perhaps the best evidence of just how substandard it still is. In 2010, Turnbull said that 12Mbps was enough for any application.
In 2010, the NBN was going to pass 1.3 million premises by June 30 2013.
Yet here we are just 3 years later, and he's promising a policy that offers between 25 and 100Mbps.
Proof that technological advances in data transfer through copper are still ongoing.
His idea of "adequate" has increased by between 2x and 8x in under 3 years, and we now have 44% of NBN customers choosing 100Mbps speeds.
44% of what proportion with an NBN service available of what proportion of the rollout schedule actually achieved ?
To what extent is this early adopters ?
In 2010, he said there was no foreseeable home usage that would require more than 12Mbps. Last year, the standard for 4kTV was released, requiring 28Mbps per channel. In the next couple of years, 8kTV will be ratified, probably requiring 60-70Mbps per channel.
Timing of large scale future market penetration of 4 or 8k HDTV beyond niche ?
The thought that by 2020 "25megs will be more than enough" for many users is utterly absurd.
The thought that by 2020, Labor's NBN rollout will be anywhere near complete is utterly absurd.
Think back a decade to 128k ADSL and ask yourself whether you could have imagined that a typical broadband connection of 12Mbps (100x faster!) would be struggling to cope with demand today. Do we really think that demand will suddenly plateau now? I think not.
Take myself back a decade and I was paying the same for that 128k ADSL with a download limit of a few gig to where am now paying a similar amount in nominal terms for a service approximately 50x better in both speed and download limits, driven by technological advancement. The problem here with Labor's plan is that the rollout cost of the technology (fibre) is such that for the capital cost to be recovered and a ROI, many households may be priced out of the higher end plans which you claim to be so essential. This too in a constantly evolving technological environment.
The coalition (and many on this forum) seem to forget that it takes 10-odd years to replace a network. It is madness to build one provisioned for the demands of today. You build one provisioned for the estimated demands in 10, 20, 30 years time.
It doesn't take 10 years (or more) to achieve significant improvements by assessing economic merit and prioritising upgrades on that basis.
A very telling factor is the absolute lack of support amongst the ITC community for the coalition policy. These are the people best qualified to advise on the best solution, and they are (almost to a man) highly critical of the plan to scale back to FTTN. Every projection I have seen from industry heavyweights (like Cisco) indicate that there is no foreseeable end for the demand for higher speeds. yet the Coalition policy is essentially banking on such an end occurring quite soon.
The Coalition with its policy is not banking on such an end occurring quite soon at all. Also, who is this ITC community ?
Executives of other companies rolling out networks around the world or niche enthusiasts with an interest in the area ?
To the extent that it's the latter, their perspective may differ to that of the public at large.
As a final point Myths, have you read in full the background document behind the Coalition's plan ?
While it's a political document (all documents of this nature are), as someone with an interest in the area, you would find it interesting.
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Albanese has taken over from Conroy in in trying to launch idiotic pie-in-the-sky high speed projects.
The High Speed Rail of course will never happen here thank goodness. and so will not need the Coalition to come to the rescue and bail it out as they have to do with hugely expensive and wasteful NBN, and other election bribes like the Gonski report into school funding, the National Disability Insurance Scheme and numerous other unfunded projects.
Thanks drsmith for effectively pricking NBNMyths' bluster of nonsense propaganda. He has the hide to talk about comedy and ridicule.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...n-a-fast-machine/story-e6frg71x-1226618581105
The High Speed Rail of course will never happen here thank goodness. and so will not need the Coalition to come to the rescue and bail it out as they have to do with hugely expensive and wasteful NBN, and other election bribes like the Gonski report into school funding, the National Disability Insurance Scheme and numerous other unfunded projects.
Thanks drsmith for effectively pricking NBNMyths' bluster of nonsense propaganda. He has the hide to talk about comedy and ridicule.
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An interesting perspective from north of the equator,
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ia-is-a-pipedream-analyst-20130411-2hnl8.html
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ia-is-a-pipedream-analyst-20130411-2hnl8.html
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A brief debate between Malcolm Turnbull and Stephen Conroy on the Today Show,
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NBNMyths will, of course. ridicule Tony Brown and claim that he and John Clarke are more knowledgeable. They may be, but only in the field of comedy and ridicule.
Dr Smith,
We'll have to agree to disagree on much of what you've written. To answer two of your points, however:
I have skimmed the Coalition background paper, and I'll read it more thoroughly when I get a chance.
Who are the ICT community?
Well, so far the following have already spoken out against the Coalition's new NBN policy:
• Geoff Huston M.Sc. - Chief Scientist at APNIC and former Telstra engineer.
• Paul Budde - Global telecommunication network consultant.
• Rod Tucker PhD - Professor at Melbourne Uni and director of NICTA. Recipient of PM Howard's Australia Prize for services to telecommunications.
• Simon Hackett - Founder of Internode
• Steve Dalby - Chief regulatory officer at iiNet
• Dr Mark Gregory - Elec and computer engineering at RMIT.
• Suzanne Campbell, CEO of the Australian Information Industry Association
Then there are these, who have spoken in the recent past, specifically in support of FTTP over FTTN, but have not commented on the coalition's new policy since it was announced:
• Eric Schmidt PhD, CEO of Google (Who are currently building FTTP in Kansas, and have announced they will do so in Houston.)
• Dr Peter Cochrane, former CTO of British Telecom.
• Dr Vint Cerf - Inventor of the internet
• Mark Newton - Former manager of Core Networks and Infrastructure at Internode.
• Optus
• The Internet Industry Association
We'll have to agree to disagree on much of what you've written. To answer two of your points, however:
I have skimmed the Coalition background paper, and I'll read it more thoroughly when I get a chance.
Who are the ICT community?
Well, so far the following have already spoken out against the Coalition's new NBN policy:
• Geoff Huston M.Sc. - Chief Scientist at APNIC and former Telstra engineer.
• Paul Budde - Global telecommunication network consultant.
• Rod Tucker PhD - Professor at Melbourne Uni and director of NICTA. Recipient of PM Howard's Australia Prize for services to telecommunications.
• Simon Hackett - Founder of Internode
• Steve Dalby - Chief regulatory officer at iiNet
• Dr Mark Gregory - Elec and computer engineering at RMIT.
• Suzanne Campbell, CEO of the Australian Information Industry Association
Then there are these, who have spoken in the recent past, specifically in support of FTTP over FTTN, but have not commented on the coalition's new policy since it was announced:
• Eric Schmidt PhD, CEO of Google (Who are currently building FTTP in Kansas, and have announced they will do so in Houston.)
• Dr Peter Cochrane, former CTO of British Telecom.
• Dr Vint Cerf - Inventor of the internet
• Mark Newton - Former manager of Core Networks and Infrastructure at Internode.
• Optus
• The Internet Industry Association
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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I am hopeful, once the Coalition gets in that they will modify the policy again to enable easy access to fibre to the home.
The big problem they have is Tony's mouth opposing everything. I admire them for changing the policy as much as they have since they were so adamant originally.
I wish Labor would stop proposing big infrastructure items and Superannuation changes as they more they announce them the more Tony feels the need to say no way and paint the Coalition into a corner. , e.g the Melbourne/Sydney train link.
In my opinion it would be good coalition policy to send Tony on an Antarctic expedition for 3 months then bring him out closer to the election. He would enjoy it more also.
The big problem they have is Tony's mouth opposing everything. I admire them for changing the policy as much as they have since they were so adamant originally.
I wish Labor would stop proposing big infrastructure items and Superannuation changes as they more they announce them the more Tony feels the need to say no way and paint the Coalition into a corner. , e.g the Melbourne/Sydney train link.
In my opinion it would be good coalition policy to send Tony on an Antarctic expedition for 3 months then bring him out closer to the election. He would enjoy it more also.
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Is this blatant lie from Juliar's facebook a part of what Myths refers to as "comedy and ridicule?"
http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/201...thing-you-need-to-know-about-labors-atti.html
http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/201...thing-you-need-to-know-about-labors-atti.html
Julia
In Memoriam
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Agree on all above points.
Is this blatant lie from Juliar's facebook a part of what Myths refers to as "comedy and ridicule?"
http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/201...thing-you-need-to-know-about-labors-atti.html
Actually it's pretty accurate. Certainly more accurate than Abbott's regular false claims, such as "people will pay 3 times more for an NBN plan than they do for ADSL2 today".
Under labor's NBN plan, every home in the fibre footprint receives a fibre connection free of charge. The cost of providing that connection is built in to the monthly charge for the NBN.
Under the coalition plan, you get FTTN for free but if you want a high speed fibre connection, you have to pay for it. Turnbull said as much himself during the policy launch, saying that a similar programme in the UK cost about £3000 per premises.
So let's say you do stump up the $5k for fibre, you will then have to pay the same cost for a 100Mbps plan as you would under the Labor NBN, even though you've already paid for the fibre connection up front. You're $5k worse off, but you don't get any of that back as savings on monthly bills.
