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So from a little bit of digging, the price weakness seems to be industry wide. The main argument appears to be that with the FDA ramping up approvals that will reduce the time that new generics have no generic competitors, as well as increase competition. On top of this, buying groups have reduced the number of large buyers in the US. How does this play out, Klogg, in your opinion?
And what about the DoJ investigation into price collusion? The Americans love doling out large penalties to naughty corporations.
Sorry for the jumbled post that's just a scratchpad of a few things I picked looking around the Google.
Here's MYX ttm with a few generic comps from India (Teva, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Dr Reddy and Aurobindo). It's certainly not MYX specific, they've copped a belting in the last 12 months, but they ran the hardest in the 12 before that.
Nice digging there Lu , pretty well explains the price drop to perfection , I thought there had to be something .. makes perfect sense timeline wise looking at the revision chart nowShare price gone down by half, but increase in number of shares by about 2x... appear like a bargain but nope. That's unless we think it was a bargain at $2 a share back a year ago.
Patience Ari. Got to check, double and triple check the figures... don't want to be looking like an idiot (again?).
Thanks guys for the robust discussion and generous sharing of your knowledge to casual observers like me who spend 20 minutes coming up with immature theories and asking stupid questions. It certainly warrants a closer study on face value. The full year report should be interesting with high hopes and high percentage shorted.
Nice digging there Lu , pretty well explains the price drop to perfection , I thought there had to be something .. makes perfect sense timeline wise looking at the revision chart now
View attachment 71831
You're right that Generic pharmas have been beaten lately... i know one because I bought it for my sister at 20 pound and it's now some 14 pound. Bought some more for her so hope she doesn't get too upset.
Now, MYX has 809M shares [diluted] at end of FY2016. Its share price then was around $1.42 on 27th June, then jump to some $1.80 at close of FY on news of more empire building. $1.80*809m = $1.456B market cap.
Its latest Appendix 3B released a couple weeks ago put its shares outstanding at 1,512,592,738 [1.5B]. At $1 a share that's $1.5B []... So a slight rise... but let's go with its Annual Report 2016 that its market cap was $1.5B then.
Share price gone down by half, but increase in number of shares by about 2x... appear like a bargain but nope. That's unless we think it was a bargain at $2 a share back a year ago.
What is the lifecycle of the earnings?They almost doubled their shares on issue, but more than doubled their EBITDA buying ~$110m in EBITDA. Pre-acquisition EBITDA in 2016 was $88.5m, NPAT was $37.4m. If that purchased EBITDA falls to bottom at the same rate (it will be less, I assume, because of the purchased intangibles – but the amortisation around the customer contract stuff can be disregarded, imo) they bought ~$46m in NPAT. Add the existing NPAT of $37.4, so the new company is earning $83.4m, in FY16. On the expanded share base eps rises from 4.6cps to 5.5cps post acquisition. If the outlook of the acquired business is materially different to the existing business, then it's possible the market is discounting it, which explains the sp fall.
What is the lifecycle of the earnings?
Think it was skc that mentioned that these can have limited lifecycles. Not sure if true.
Unless they're superseded they don't really stop being used, but in order to get the earnings growth they need to be constantly bringing new generics in as patents expire. With a well diversified portfolio how much risk is there in bringing any single drug to market? I would have thought that with the the margins they have they can probably afford a few duds without any harm coming. Probably also worth remembering they aren't just a generics business.
The real test case for the lifecycle of a generic will be dofetilide. There was a Paragraph IV challenge, which they won, and ultimately gave them approval to manufacture the first generic of dofetilide with 180days market exclusivity.
This resulted in a HUGE boost to the generics business, and won them a huge amount of market share in that time. Now that others can produce generics (180days has expired), it will be great to see what competition can do to the incumbent and what that means to prices (if they give us that information).
That's interesting, Klogg. You've sure done your homework on this. When did/does the 180 days expire?
Can you put on the devil's hat and see what might be the sell thesis?
Also a relevant point. I don't think they're at the diversified stage quite yet and a 'dud' could be quite damaging.Unless they're superseded they don't really stop being used, but in order to get the earnings growth they need to be constantly bringing new generics in as patents expire. With a well diversified portfolio how much risk is there in bringing any single drug to market? I would have thought that with the the margins they have they can probably afford a few duds without any harm coming. Probably also worth remembering they aren't just a generics business.
Dont worry, I make an idiot of myself all the time.
Feel free to post your thoughts, I'm not going to start calling you name if you're wrong - and if you're right, you are doing me a huge favour
They almost doubled their shares on issue, but more than doubled their EBITDA buying ~$110m in EBITDA. Pre-acquisition EBITDA in 2016 was $88.5m, NPAT was $37.4m. If that purchased EBITDA falls to bottom at the same rate (it will be less, I assume, because of the purchased intangibles – but the amortisation around the customer contract stuff can be disregarded, imo) they bought ~$46m in NPAT. Add the existing NPAT of $37.4, so the new company is earning $83.4m, in FY16. On the expanded share base eps rises from 4.6cps to 5.5cps post acquisition. If the outlook of the acquired business is materially different to the existing business, then it's possible the market is discounting it, which explains the sp fall.
Here's one chart that kind of speak volumes
View attachment 71848
See that black bar? That's contributed equity from shareholders. See how it's a few times above the retained earnings [green] bar?
No dividend since 2012, barely making any money yet raised and borrow like they'll do great with new and bigger acquisitions.
A quick look at Teva show they've overpaid for it too. Practically paying $1B for a portfolio of generic drugs that earn some $285m in revenues, with "only" some $700m of potential new revenue in an entire market from 6 drugs in the R&D pipeline. And about 99% of the assets they bought are intangibles.
Compare that to Hikma who paid $US2.1B a year or so ago for Roxane Laboratories. For that price they only dilute their ownership by 16.7%... and that's from issuing new shares to pay to the parent company who want to offload that division. Revenues from Roxane existing portfolio is expected to be some $700 to $750m USD for FY2017. Its R&D pipeline has some 89 potential products with an addressable market of $41B... and they get to bring the entire R&D team, the labs etc.
From that perspective, Mayne made a pretty bad deal.
That chart is totally meaningless without some understanding of the business. There is a difference between growing earnings through acquisitions funded by cap raisings and raising capital to keep the lights on. There are plenty of issues around the growth through acquisition strategy (there's even a thread about it), but you need a bit more meat on the bone than "company growing through acquisitions issues lots of shares". That's just the bleeding obvious.
You seem to just cherry pick whatever data point will satisfy the view you have already reached. Like below with your use of revenue...
MYX paid 6x EBITDA for Teva and Hikma paid 8.3x EBITDA for Roxane ($US2.1b for US$725m revenue at 35% EBITDA margin), they were initially going to pay 10x EBITDA. So who got the better deal? Like I said, Sharebase dilution is pretty meaningless stat on its own, all it does is tell you the company issued shares. Like everything else it needs context, not a pre-conceived narrative. Hikma diluted their share base by 16.7% (again itself not that important a number without some context), but also forked out $600m in cash.
I'd expect any company whose business is in pharma to have the overwhelming majority of their assets in intangibles.
....
I'd expect any company whose business is in pharma to have the overwhelming majority of their assets in intangibles.
Bought in today at 94c. It just seems insanely cheap.
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