My system

[n5032245]

I have been trading my system on the EUR.USD over the past year.
there are a couple of extra points of info.
only a small number of trades over the past year
targets are usually set between 2R - 3R.
trade mgmt of moving stop to break even when 1R is reached.
R is .5% of total funds (trying to keep risk lower in volatile)

I am thinking of increasing the risk on the system to 1% with the eventual aim of getting it to a max of 2%.

What are everyone's thoughts on the system and adjusting the risk?


Gross Profit 15512.59 Gross Loss -5225.32 Total Net Profit 10287.27

Expected Payoff 734.8052
Absolute Drawdown 0

Total Trades 14 Profitable trades (% won) 11 (79%) Losing Trades (% won) 3 (21%)
Short Positions (% Won) 12 (75%) Long positions (%won) 2 (100%)

Largest Profit trade 3818.39 loss trade 2949
Average Profit trade 1410 loss trade 1741
Maximum Consecutive wins ($) 6 (8609) consecutive losses ($) 1 (1121)

 

[Stormin_Norman]

with an 80% win rate id be trading at 5% risk.

but that's just me, im known to be a crazy fcuker.

 

[Trembling Hand]

With 14 trades you haven't enough info to make a call on that.

And whats with all these FX "systems" with higher avg loss I must not know how to trade, cus I lose when that happens to me

 

[n5032245]

TH,

what sample size would you suggest would warrent a large enough sample size to increase the R on the trade?

and th, would you trade this system if had a sample size of over 50?

 

[nomore4s]

with an 80% win rate id be trading at 5% risk.

but that's just me, im known to be a crazy fcuker.

I'm not sure I would be upping my risk to 5% on a system that has only 14 trades! Yet to have string of losses as well.

 

[Trembling Hand]

TH,

what sample size would you suggest would warrent a large enough sample size to increase the R on the trade?

and th, would you trade this system if had a sample size of over 50?

Thats like the piece of string question. but I don't like systems that have a high win rate and especially ones that have a avg loss higher than avg win.

If its a good system then find a way to increase the frequency rather than the amount risked.

 

[wabbit]

"If it aint broke, don't fix it!"

You appear to have a "working" system. Why tinker with it? Trying to squeeze out that elusive extra 1% performance will cost 99% of your time. Risking more is only going to cost you more.

Go fishing/golfing/kite-flying instead!

If/when the system breaks, then you will have data which can be analysed to find the cause, and the problems fixed. Until then, I'd leave it alone and spend my time on something much more valuable, me.


wabbit

 

[macca]

14 Trades is nowhere near enough trades IMO. Not only that, the past year has been extraordinary, there are all sorts of systems "working" at the moment that would be a waste of time in normal trading conditions.

I truly hope it works for you, but with so few trades if you lose the next two then your year is gone.

I always like to assess a system/method on whether or not it could become my "job". With so few trades in a weird year I think I would be testing this one for a long while yet.

Perhaps you could expand it to more pairs and try to get more data on its performance. Otherwise you could manually backtest 2007 and 2006 and see what happened when things were more typical.

Good luck with it but I would not be increasing my stake until I had proved it with at least 50 trades.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

get 4 or 5 years of back data and test it over a range of currencies.

 

[CanOz]

get 4 or 5 years of back data and test it over a range of currencies.

I can only seem to go back 177 days of hourly data with Esignal. Where else can you get more intraday data for currencies Norm?

CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/dc/databank.html

get the 1 minute data. use the mt4 converter to change it into the other time frames.

 

[CanOz]

http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/dc/databank.html

get the 1 minute data. use the mt4 converter to change it into the other time frames.

hmmm, running Amibroker, not MT4.

I'll see what format the data is in.

Cheers,



CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

comma seperated if i recall correctly.

 

[Felix Profound]

I have been trading my system on the EUR.USD over the past year.
there are a couple of extra points of info.
only a small number of trades over the past year
targets are usually set between 2R - 3R.
trade mgmt of moving stop to break even when 1R is reached.
R is .5% of total funds (trying to keep risk lower in volatile)

I am thinking of increasing the risk on the system to 1% with the eventual aim of getting it to a max of 2%.

What are everyone's thoughts on the system and adjusting the risk?


Gross Profit 15512.59 Gross Loss -5225.32 Total Net Profit 10287.27

Expected Payoff 734.8052
Absolute Drawdown 0

Total Trades 14 Profitable trades (% won) 11 (79%) Losing Trades (% won) 3 (21%)
Short Positions (% Won) 12 (75%) Long positions (%won) 2 (100%)

Largest Profit trade 3818.39 loss trade 2949
Average Profit trade 1410 loss trade 1741
Maximum Consecutive wins ($) 6 (8609) consecutive losses ($) 1 (1121)

You can not come into any conclusion with that much trades. If your system is kind of mechanical type you may back test and see what happens in a long run.
Just as an example keep in mind that after US economical crisis many technical behaviours of market have been changed. I know a couple of EAs that are profitable in this periode but not before (and vice versa)

I mean to say to judge about your risk you should look in a very long term view.

The only parameter that limits your risk is consecutive losses. Some more conservative traders go further and say to calculate your risk you should count on the possibility of losing all your trades in a months. In other word risk is calculated based on worst case parameters.