My FX Trading using Median lines

[James Austin]

Began exploring Fx a couple of months ago. I’ve been using a little known, or little used indicator called Andrew’s Pitch Fork, or median lines. It’s a leading indicator, not unlike a trend line. Other than this, I just draw a few lines here and there, trend lines, support and resistance, channels etc. My approach is pretty simple.

Median Lines seem to show some promise, so I’d like to see if this thread can turn into some constructive discussion.

Also, I wont be making any claims regarding my own personal trading, I want to keep the focus on the method and “potential” trade set-ups as the unfold.

Right now I’m watching this short trade (circled), but I don’t like that ‘V’ shape, may push price up and against the short.

AUDUSD 20min
short 0.8280, stop 0.8285, exit target 0.8255

 

[Real1ty]

APF is well known in FX circles, although i have never used it but look forward to some feedback from others that have.

Pretty strange thread title to use if you are not going to include your own predictions or results.

 

[Mr J]

I like the pitchfork. I haven't spent too much time looking at it as S&R, but I occasionally use it after a pivot to see where the median line would be. I see it as illustrating the natural balancing nature of the market, and marking the point to which the market will more often than not retrace. Just something more to push the odds in our favour.

Something to consider is that the original drop stopped at an additional median line, but that point was also 0.825 - a major number. It then came back up to the next median line, but that point was also the pivot point S2. It also all takes place in a pitchfork that formed on Friday, where price has just hit the main median line. To go even further, that short occured on the 3rd touch of a downwards trendline, and we're now at yesterday's lows.

We're also right on a longterm trendline that started in March, and a slight up trend over the last couple of weeks.

I bet there'd be something by pulling out the 50% retracement, and all sorts of horizontal S&R. Possible to get drowned in too much of this stuff, which is why I wouldn't use the extended median lines . I'm not going short yet, and I may be going long.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I think there is a danger in putting all these lines overlaid on a chart. By simply placing a line in your visual field you give it significance mostly at the expense of something else. You almost are locked onto that line or group of lines playing a role. Should it be given such significance?

Humans are very suggestible creatures, traders maybe more so. If you put something prominent in your site you better make sure its worth it.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

what story is it telling?

that's always what i ask myself of indicators.

 

[James Austin]

thanks for the comments

i'll put up examples as i find them, preferably prior to the trade completing, and we'll see how it goes . . . . an experiment!!

 

[Mr J]

Should it be given such significance?

Not unless the market gives them significance.

Humans are very suggestible creatures, traders maybe more so.

Between pitchforks, horizontal lines, trendlines, pivot points, fib numbers etc one could find 'significance' at any point, and could drown in a chart of lines. That said, the market does regularly react to these points, so it is worth being aware of them.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Between pitchforks, horizontal lines, trendlines, pivot points, fib numbers etc one could find 'significance' at any point, and could drown in a chart of lines. That said, the market does regularly react to these points, so it is worth being aware of them.

Thats my point. You put them there they have significance to YOU. Only in hindsight do you know how much significance you should of given them.

Better not feeding yourself info in my HO.

 

[James Austin]

i would like to see the blue ML resist price at the green circle and push price down to the lower red channel = exit target

EURJPY 20min
short 132.16, stop 132.31, exit ~ 131.60ish

 

[motorway]

All Price really has at any moment is a certain Postion

Ok if lines help you See that OK

But it is Price that has the position not the lines

Now important At a certain moment

Next moment price has a different position..

Hence there is a Rate of change = velocity
And There is rate of change of velocity = accelleraton

So

All there is , is Position and it's Derivatives

Now all you need is the best representation
of Postion and Rate of Change

This for me is NOT indicators
but nested frequencies

This for many will be multi nested time frames...

Add volume there is not much else...

Resistance and Support
are where ever ROC + VOLUME reveal it to be

Your lowest frequency will define Primary trend & POSITION
Your next highest will define ROC as VELOCITY
and next highest ( so shorter time frame ) will define ROC as ACCELLERATION

So you have Position , Kinetic energy ( mean reversion ) & potential energy ( turning & change up - points )

THE PIVOTAL POINTS unfold where they do

LINES can certainly help but I think just a few



motorway

 

[Mr J]

Better not feeding yourself info in my HO.

I know what you mean, but I can't help myself when it's the 3rd bounce off a trendline :. I trade the price action, but some lines have their uses. Example, I may see a downtrend, but pass it because we're at the trendline of an uptrend. Such as what happened over the last 24 hours with the AUD.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

i use horizontal support/resistance lines.

their story is - someone (or a collective of someones ) is buying/selling quite a large amount at that point, so when they get the price they want to trade at, its filling the market and reversing its direction.

what is the fork's story?

 

[cashflow_08]

G-day . Can anyone provide or link me a good learning resources of Median line. and pitchfork analysis. I have looked them at the past but didnt really quite get the basics right.

Thanks

 

[James Austin]

got a wedge forming here, which i'm not fond of, so exit at +20

i would like to see the blue ML resist price at the green circle and push price down to the lower red channel = exit target

EURJPY 20min
short 132.16, stop 132.31, exit ~ 131.60ish

it is argued that forks tell us where price is most likely to run out of energy,
why? i dont know . . . but it seems to have some validity when forks are drawn well

i use horizontal support/resistance lines.

their story is - someone (or a collective of someones ) is buying/selling quite a large amount at that point, so when they get the price they want to trade at, its filling the market and reversing its direction.

what is the fork's story?

CF, try
http://marketgeometry.com
http://www.medianline.com
plus google search Tim Morge

G-day . Can anyone provide or link me a good learning resources of Median line. and pitchfork analysis. I have looked them at the past but didnt really quite get the basics right.

Thanks

 

[fapturbo]

i use horizontal support/resistance lines.

their story is - someone (or a collective of someones ) is buying/selling quite a large amount at that point, so when they get the price they want to trade at, its filling the market and reversing its direction.

what is the fork's story?

Simple and very effective....

 

[CFD]

I guess it's only fair that the thread stay on topic with Median lines, but I would really like to hear more from motorway and in applying the wisdom of his post.

 

[James Austin]

here's a setup i've had my eye on this morning.

price bouncing off the blue ML, with expectation it will act as resistance and price will move down.

EURJPY 20min
short 131.64, stop 131.79, exit 131.10

 

[James Austin]

here's 2 video links for any interested in MLs

"Using Traditional Median Lines"
http://marketgeometry.com/?p=518

** traditional MLs are the most commonly used ML type.


"Modified Schiff Median Lines"
http://marketgeometry.com/?p=765

** modified schiff MLs are the second most common type of ML; these are used when price is moving vertically or when determing the most likely break direction of price out of a channel

 

[James Austin]

this is not a well confirmed ML, so its higher risk,
but would like to see price head down after meeting resistance at the red ML

AUDUSD 20min
short 0.83595, stop 0.83745, exit ??

 

[James Austin]

would like to see price head down after meeting resistance at the red ML

GBPUSD 20min
short 1.62745, stop 1.62895, exit ??