MVF - Monash IVF Group

DeepState said:

Apologies for the delay in response, especially given how very helpful your experience has been. Have not reviewed in detail. Initial observations on surface read:

Market pleasantly surprised by evidence of reversion to long term ARS growth rate. Has been tracking unreasonably low since IPO.
Clearly responding positively to expectations for FY16 reported NPAT to be +25% although revisions to expectations did not come though. FactSet is tracking 6 analysts. One revised up, one down and average didn't do anything. Analysts are not giving credence to the stated outlook. Possible upside surprise and credibility restoration if the target can be hit.

There are significant margin pressures in KL.
Low intervention is lower margin off lower revenue. Will eventually bite into main line offering. What rate of revenue and EBITDA compression will occur?
Beginning to grow further away from core IVF by moving to complementary services (day care hospitals, SUFW) and having to engage in pre-emptive self cannibalisation (Bump, MyIVF).
Fair chunk of headline growth is via acquisition. Need to check pricing achieved and hence price for growth.
Suspect that increasing supply of IVF specialists offers upside via increasing share of revenue retained.

Lots of questions unanswered at this time. Just first impressions.

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pixel said:

I was wondering how the Market would react on the accusations in a recent 4 Corners broadcast:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-...ients-about-success-rates-experts-say/7457750

If anything, the debate may have acted as support, as evidenced by the reversal Doji on 1st of June. And the resulting text book rise gave us a new multi-year High.

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Waiting for a pullback towards break level, to provide a buying opportunity.

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peter2 said:

I was going to post my regular weekly/daily charts that show a bullish view on MVF and VRT. However the longer term view shows just how disappointing these two companies have been for shareholders. This disappointment is shown in the monthly chart (left).

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The bullish opportunity in the weekly/daily charts is likely to be contained probable resistance near 1.00. Short term, there may be a pop in price which may be traded.

Unsurprisingly the monthly chart of VRT looks much the same.

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peter2 said:

Since my last post, MVF has slowly gone back to it's pre-Covid high. The price action is looking corrective certainly not impulsive. This indicates that some caution about further highs is warranted. MVF was much higher pre-Covid but in Aug 19 five fertility specialists stopped providing their services to MVF in order to start their own company (price selloff).

MVF has had a rocky journey post Covid with ongoing litigation. I'm unaware of the current state of this issue. However it just seems that MVF goes from one problem to another. This is reflected by the sloppy price action.

The recent spike in the daily chart was the same day that VRT announced news of a possible take-over by a shareholder. Private equity sees value in this industry. The industry was always going to bounce back once the pandemic restrictions lessen. With VRT under siege, MVF is the only other option.

If MVF management were better this would have bolted along with the other re-opening companies. I remain wary.

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Garpal Gumnut said:

MVF May have a rocky week. An Historical balls up whereby a chappie with a history of schizophrenia and a family history of bowel cancer donated sperm under multiple names leading to some say 700 births.

4Corners will run a show on it. See ABCJustin for details.

gg

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