Some base data required for projection of IVF and related market unit demand.
Number of women in the population for different age bands as projected by the ABS on the assumption of current net immigration rates (hence probably conservative):
The prime group for IVF demand are women in the 30s. Hence growth rate assumptions will heavily depend on the number of women in this age bracket and how that evolves through time:
Demand for IVF results from infertility or difficulty in conceiving. These are the natural rates of conception in a 12 month period. Generally, after this time, a patient becomes a core candidate for IVF treatment of some sort, or at least investigating the possibility:
The age at which women are having children has been increasing but has become more stable in the last five or so years. Part of the growth rate experienced for IVF has come about because the number and proportion of women having children later has increased faster than by demographic trends more generally. These lifestyle choices produce a rate of growth which, all else equal, should not be used as a base case growth rate going forward.
By blending these results with Medicare claims data and household confidence data, it is possible to get a reasonable basis for projections of IVF unit demand. Demographic data is very stable.
The key unknowables aren't really about market-wide demand. They come down to Medicare support (demand for IVF is amazingly dependent on household confidence and hence price sensitive), bargaining power of the IVF specialists and technological breakthroughs. There are also efforts to break the market apart with bulk-billing services. These can only be loss-leaders as no amount of scale benefit could make this profitable. Everyone with a growth story is looking for a greater geographic footprint in Australia and elsewhere. This market is like McDonalds. The service is ultimately a burger. Clients just go to the most convenient one that more or less does the job. It's a real-estate play as much as anything.