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MSC - Minerals Corp - Technical trade

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RichKid

RichKid

PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan
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Okay, here's one I've been watching for awhile based on good fundamentals.

Minerals Corp (MSC) is mainly a Kaolin producer but has other activities too (see annoucements), lots of recent corporate activity with recent spin-offs.

Last year (2003) was a volatile transition stage as it got it's Skardon River plant in order and shipped lots of samples, now markets are opening up and sales are about to get going. It appears to be getting back to normal value (supposed to be 22c). Interesting pattern, see the charts and note the last few bars, especially the volume.

I reckon it's a goer, this week will tell imo. I see 9c as nearest support for a stop but need to have a closer look before entering as this may turn out to be some sort of bulltrap set up. Any other views or MSC followers?

(top chart is last six month including today, bottom chart is complete history)
 

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Reckon its to late to jump on this right now.

I think it will do exactly as CUE and JRV have done.
Pullback 61 to 50% (Fib) and we will get a second opportunity so on the watchlist.
If it pans out it pans out if not---
Saw another today but that is to late as well Ill post a chart on its own thread.
 
Yes, earlier would have been better. In fact there was a lower risk opportunity with out of the money options last week (MSCO). I was a bit busy so didn't enter but now I will watch MSC/MSCO for an opportunity.

This recent spike in price is somewhat unusual to the previous ones due to volume and the overall co risk profile diminishing after a break in the downtrend. Directors say net asset backing is 22c. I haven't done the math but this is a turnaround story imo. There was also a mention a few months ago of an ex-Director slowly off loading stock- suggestion was that his shorting tactic was keeping the price down although I think it was just a director excuse for poor operating profile at that stage.

BTW, CUE is waiting on an estimate from Santos's work, hence slowdown after new issue at 25c.
 
Another strong day today, let's see how tomorrow goes, over 12c is what's needed. Oppies look good value, I'll see if I can ride them to a decent profit. This may be a long run right upto 20c or so. Still some volatility, MSC is also starting a structured marketing plan to inform the market and customers about its products and prospects so it looks like a higher profile this year.
 
Still watching this Tech? I think it's a goer for reasons above, it's carried on strong opens for the last few days on good volume (would have like a better finish yesterday to a full bodied candle), looks like a classic re-rating after overcoming operational problems, recent appointment of experienced Kaolin executive has filled the final hole in mgmt ranks. From what I see it's racing to fair value, see long term trend line at 20c on chart a few posts higher. It may not get there immediately but it will before long imo, I see 12c as another important short term level, needs to get there today or tomorrow to be a real runner. Any other MSC followers or holders?
 
doctorj said:
Follower, not a holder.
Lover not a hater. :D
Click to expand...

Ok Dr Amorous, nice to have your company! ;)

Any views on MSC? I'm watching it cautiously now as this has certainly been a dramatic rise, my money is on the options.
 
Looking at depth so far today, I don't think today is going to be your day. When it closes above 11.0, its highs back in July, I may look at an entry.
 
Yes, it has quietened down a bit. 10.5c looks like a interesting level so 11c would be nice. Let's let this one play out...
 
Do you use Comsec Doc? Reason I ask is because the chart I posted above (from Bigcharts.com) has 11c as the high, but ComSec gives me only 10.5c as the July high!!!

This is the price history from Tradingroom.com.au

29-Jul-2004 0.0930 0.0940 0.0911 0.0940 433,307
28-Jul-2004 0.0997 0.0997 0.0911 0.0921 3,344,100

27-Jul-2004 0.1044 0.1044 0.0949 0.0997 1,110,864 (Never reached 11c)

26-Jul-2004 0.0949 0.1044 0.0949 0.1044 2,209,901
23-Jul-2004 0.0949 0.1044 0.0949 0.0949 4,269,384
22-Jul-2004 0.0930 0.0997 0.0892 0.0949 2,893,002


So it looks like the BigCharts version is wrong! I noticed this before in another stock but it just goes to show how important accurate information is when doing TA, especially with low priced stocks. It's a common problem but I'm glad ComSec is accurate. Phew!! Had a scare there.

Also, does anyone know why the high in the figures above is stated at 10.44c instead of 10.5c?
 
Looks like a flag or pennant forming around 10.5c. Depth looks great, expecting 11c (resistance) to be broken if volume picks up but may take till next week. If it does break through as a flag or pennant next stop would be 12.5c (measured). Which would mean an even bigger % move for the oppies MSCO.

Will have to wait and see which patterns comes about though, a bit early to confirm, need lots more volume for this one to be convincing.
 
Looks like volume has died and price with it, next two days will confirm it otherwise look to recovery imo, based on past spikes. Let's see where it finds support.
 
AMAZING! What half a day can do- buy depth is HUGE. Right back upto 11c this morning, some tip sheet must have recommended it or there's an annoucement in the works. Might also have been some profit taking yesterday. Still a volatile range, no solid support as yet so will have to be watched closely for the rest of the week to see if is going to keep going or consolidate. Still a real risk of it falling to 8c.

End of day will give us a clearer picture as always, let's see if the buy depth holds.

Share Quote as at 10:44 Sydney Time, Wednesday, 19 January 2005
MINERALS CORPORATION FPO

Stock Bid $ Offer $ Last $ Change Open $ High $ Low $ Volume News
MSC 0.110 0.115 0.110 +0.013 0.105 0.110 0.105 3,249,328

Market Depth
BUY
Number Quantity Price
4 162,705 0.110
34 1,865,250 0.105
106 4,832,893 0.100
12 521,324 0.099
18 960,404 0.098
15 714,384 0.097
4 260,500 0.096
16 993,170 0.095
2 100,000 0.094
2 445,000 0.093

SELL
Price Quantity Number
0.115 1,477,707 14
0.120 1,272,070 17
0.125 1,024,705 15
0.130 498,783 11
0.135 533,101 9
0.140 624,372 9
0.145 420,483 5
0.150 393,783 7
0.155 150,000 1
0.170 200,000 1
 
And there goes 11.5.

Apparently FatProphets recommended a buy at 10c last night.
 
doctorj said:
And there goes 11.5.

Apparently FatProphets recommended a buy at 10c last night.
Click to expand...

Hi Doc,
Thanks for the explanation, it's clearly the tipsheet buying that has saved this, otherwise we would have seen it fall imo. That sudden overnight rise in depth had to be explained. Checkout the annual report for fatprophets (on their website www.fatprophets.com.au it's free) and you'll see they're heavily into MSC. Maybe they know something we don't. The number of orders at 10c is huge. Also do a google search and you'll get some reviews of MSC if you haven't found them already.

Question now is will the rest of the market wake up to it and support it? Volume will tell imo, solid at about 5m so far today. So short term support around 10c is what it looks like. It's upto the co now to impress the market. I'd say the prophets are expecting it to get to 12c short term and much higher long term (ie 20c+). They had free sample reports on their website for MSC but I haven't checked it out recently.
 
Looking bad for MSC, appears to be heading down and out again. Below support at 10c, looks to be heading for next possible support level at 8.5c, very poor volume. Might have to wait a bit longer (AGAIN!) for this 'turnaround' story to get going- upto management now to keep things straight, read some critical comments about them on Reefcap, makes MSC less attractive to me now as they appear to be fiddling with the figures.
 
Well, back to the downtrend for MSC, made an annct re a deal to mine minerals locally via taking up a position but the bulk of their efforts are at Skardon River so they'll still have to get that operation going well. The directors are the main worry now for me, hard to rely on their anncts with complete faith, nothing substantial has really eventuated yet.
 
Hi, MSC should get back up in a month or two in a big way once the market gets around to taking another look at this. Great potential here at current levels of 0.067!
 
Richard. Ihope you are right. I have been in this company for 4/5 years and am still a believer but the Directors sure try shareholders patience with their continual changes of direction raher than concentrating on what mat be a very good business. KAOLIN
richard987 said:
Hi, MSC should get back up in a month or two in a big way once the market gets around to taking another look at this. Great potential here at current levels of 0.067!
Click to expand...
 
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