...as would a highly skilled coin. It too would blow the investor out of the water. The hard part being to know that the coin was highly skilled at the outset, unlike its lesser skilled siblings. Perhaps the coin that tossed three all-in binaries in a row to achieve the above outcome is 'highly skilled' and we should back it accordingly?
At a starting line on 9 Mar 2015, 1000 traders from ASF (incl lurkers) who have had more than three years on the site following various threads over time and, presumably, have a couple of hundred hours of flying time and sim time logged, start with $25-30k. The Institute of Highly-Skilled Traders gave this to them, so it is not even their capital. They are running a turtle experiment, X-Factor for traders. They get to keep the money only if they convert this to $200k in less than a year. If not, they walk with nothing. For the purposes, this money is presumed to be noticable as supplemental income and considered to be worth 2-hours a day of spare time by each candidate. Nothing stops them from trading on their own account either....etc. add legal stuff to close off the loopholes to the clear intent of this question. Multiply the dollar figures by 1000x if you feel the need to make the traders stupendously motivated for the chance to make $200m.
They trade FTSE and DAX only.
What proportion of traders, who make this attempt from scratch, do you think would achieve this outcome if this type of thing was their objective? Can you outline the reasoning?