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MOF - Macquarie Office Trust

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dreamchaser

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25 October 2008
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HELL ，I am Xiu , new to the table and now with a broken dream and digged a big hole in my portfolio...I am totally lost , who could tell me what s going on with MOF, I know I was very stupid didnt sell it
first buy :0.21 when it up to 0.35 i still holding it ,in that period it was very steady .second buy 0.24, third buy 0.16. these a few weeks it dropped 1cent everyday .I was still hoping it would turn back . today it closed at 0.082, I was beaten and devastated...it is a very costy lesson for me .

if you were me , what would u do ?
0.198 *57000 shares =11286$, now losing 6612$, 58.6% I know , it is a shame to show this ,,,
 
Re: WHO CAN TELL ME WHAT S GOING ON WITH MOF?!

Um, welcome to the Global financial crisis and chaos on the share market!
I can show you way worse figures than that, sadly!

Maybe you need to work out your strategy; buy and hold or sell under profit (assuming it makes one).
 
Please note that members here at ASF cannot give specific financial advice due to the ASIC restrictions placed upon this site.

Thanks

Prawn
 
Re: WHO CAN TELL ME WHAT S GOING ON WITH MOF?!

Xiu, we've all been there before.

These are the brutal facts.

You've got 3 choices, and this is not advice, just reality:

1.) cut your losses and try and sell on a bounce.

2.) cut your losses and sell for whatever the bids are.

3.) kiss the money goodbye, hold the stock in the bottom drawer and maybe, just maybe, one way or another it increases in value one day.

Once you come to grips with your losses its a very good moment, but time taken to make the decision is painful.

Good luck, and may this be your last really costly lesson.

Cheers,


CanOz
 
Re: WHO CAN TELL ME WHAT S GOING ON WITH MOF?!



-------

"Once you come to grips with your losses its a very good moment, but time taken to make the decision is painful"

this is the point , it s hurting me everyday ,when ever when I look at my portfolio it is like a knife stabbing my heart... dont know what to do .

thank you for your advice.I think I have to face the reality ,wuwahhhhhhh,,,,,,tears for all my hard earned money
 
MOF is not alone in having it's share price smashed. The A-REIT sector has become the leper colony of the ASX due to the debt levels of the entities therein. MOF recently raised capital to manage it's short term debt expiries but does have a large exposure to the US office market so that could be a factor in the severity of the unit price fall.

In terms of deciding whether to hold or sell, go back to your original reasons for investing in them in the first place.

Was it a well researched investment decision or was it sepculation (a bet)?
The answer to this question will help guide you towards your decision on whether to hold or sell.
 
Re: WHO CAN TELL ME WHAT S GOING ON WITH MOF?!

Prospector said:
Um, welcome to the Global financial crisis and chaos on the share market!
I can show you way worse figures than that, sadly!

Maybe you need to work out your strategy; buy and hold or sell under profit (assuming it makes one).
Click to expand...

Thank you.
I have been reading here for a while. I jumped in the pool in November last year without any basic knowledge of shares. "stop loss " and "take profit" I have never used for right time ,regreting for my greed ...
 
I've often found that REIT's with overseas property are mis-analysed.

I quickly got in and out of MOF today for a 0.4cent profit. For a profit before brokerage of $30, wooohooo

I sold out as the only reason why I bought is that it fell 10% just today, which is a whole lot more than the other REIT's today. It was just a gamble for me.

If you are going to analyse it, keep it mind that currency fluctuations are going to wreak havoc on your valuation for MOF. You need to work out what assumed currency valuation the management are using, in which currency the debt is in, etc.

The falling Aus $ has actually made the falling valuations not look so bad.
Now that the SP is so low, traditional technical analysis may not give us much clues to will happen in the future. Its just a gamble now.

One positive is that it can't fall much further, it may just do what CNP has done for the last few months and hover around the 8 to 10c mark, and I'd say CNP is more screwed than MOF.
 


THANK YOU FOR YOUR GOOD POINT.
FORGIVE ME FOR THE IGNORANCE , may i ask how you how you do your research before you make a decision to buy?any good resource ? I think I have problems with the research .
at the beginning , I planned for long term which was the reason I didnt sell at 0.35.but now I really cant convince myself anymore due to my ability of research .
 
You could down load the recent reports: for end of 2008; and the update for the spp. This could give you a feel for the long term prospects of MOF. Since then the price has had a wild ride downwards from $0.20 (spp) to $0.08 during todays trade.
There is a reported asset value of approximately $0.60 per share, but the interest exposure in US$ against a falling Aud$ combined with the prospects of falling real estate values in the USA and occupancy rates dropping, are reputed to have put the frighteners on the whole real estate investment trust sector (REIT's).
Sometimes you wonder if the big international hedge fund players aren't pushing prices down in REIT's so that they can soak up shares for a long term investment or even to push for the REIT to be wound up, the assets sold and funds returned to shareholders. Either way they win out.
 
Hey there - i've invested a similar amount in MOF at a similar price too but I think the REIT sector actually offers real value and MOF is a worthwhile and probably outstanding gamble.

I know the debt/equity ratio for MOF is around 43%, however it does have quite a few things in its favour:

1. All debt covenants will be met this year, and the debts will all be easily met until FY2011
2. They are STILL predicting a dividend of 1.5 c per share per half year (3c annualised) 2009. ( i.e. over 35% dividend on current share price)
3. Two Australian properties are in process of being sold for approx 128M AUD & looks like a couple of US properties will be sold too, reducing debt ratio further.
4. Still has positive equity of over 2.7billion assuming current property values remain (which will probably decline over the next year)
5. I don't think Macquarie will let it fail...... i imagine they are sat thinking about buying up some more market shares on the cheap right now....
6. Fundamentals in terms of rental income are solid and they are locked into mostly long term rental agreements.

- Assuming the fund meets all debts in FY2011 -*which is the tricky point, not now* then i actually believe what you have here is an incredible bargain).

I think the price might drop to 5c or so and then rally before the ex dividend date mid year. At this time i think there will be a little more confidence in the market and a few less properties in the portfolio , with a lower debt ratio, and i'd imagine an annualised dividend of approx 4-5 cents during FY2010 giving a share price of 40-50 cents by mid 2010......

thats my guess anyway.....
 
Hold; and will buy more if it goes down

look how much $ was spend exchanging this shares avrge of 2mln every day. Over last 4 days shares dropped by 30% on AUD 8mln spend. Total company capit @.11 is AUD 450mln

Less then 2 % was ysed to decrease the value of this company by 30%!? Unreal.

Well if somebody manipulatin with 1 % and other 1 % got scared and sold off then they were tricked.

Ask question what has changed with company since January/Feb when they issued shared @20? Well, not much.

I am at .1 ; and even if i was at .25 i would be holding because bad/uncertain/scary times can not effect people for long time - we get immune to it sooner rather then later.

Put it other way ; you bought a house for $1.40 you paid off $1 so far ; you still owe 40 cents ; WOULD YOU SELL IT FOR 10 cents????? And remember you bought your house in '90s (most of MOF' Australian property was baought back then ; as well US property was already valued down by 50%)
I will not!

Happy hunting
 


Wow,quite positive . yeh,I was scare ... so now I know that I am not the only one still holding it . as long as it doesnt collapse,,,
 
If I were looking to buy this stock, as a bottom picker i would need to start to see some volume and closes that were off the lows....to give a bit of a clue that someone was stepping up to bat here.

So far thats not the case, the last two closes are on or near the lows.

Be careful.

CanOz
 

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TODAY IT FINISHED AT 0.091,I BOUGHT IN ANOTHER 20000 AT 0.09, MISSED OUT THE 0.083, WHAT DO YOU THINK ? IS IT THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY BACK ?
TKS
 
dreamchaser said:
TODAY IT FINISHED AT 0.091,I BOUGHT IN ANOTHER 20000 AT 0.09, MISSED OUT THE 0.083, WHAT DO YOU THINK ? IS IT THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY BACK ?
TKS
Click to expand...

Sorry mate, i cannot give you specific advice, its against ASIC regs.

Have a plan, stick to it.

Cheers,


CanOz
 
dreamchaser said:
if you were me , what would u do ?
0.198 *57000 shares =11286$, now losing 6612$, 58.6% I know , it is a shame to show this ,,,
Click to expand...
dreamchaser said:
TODAY IT FINISHED AT 0.091,I BOUGHT IN ANOTHER 20000 AT 0.09, MISSED OUT THE 0.083, WHAT DO YOU THINK ? IS IT THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY BACK ?
TKS
Click to expand...
At today's price you can recover your capital if you choose. To me that would be the wisest choice as you appear somewhat uncomfortable with the initial investment decision in the first place.

As for research the first thing to check is a company's profit and loss, balance sheet, cash flow and when debts are due. The latter is of particular importance for MOF as it is it's debt that makes it a higher than normal risk.
 

Tks for that . yeh, it had come back so much that I almost can sell it with small loss. I dont know why MOF ,GMG (i m holding both)had been trading such a big volume recently and it is also very hard to decide sell it or not .my greed comes back when my holding stocks r rising . I m hardly to control my enmotion as well...

 
drsmith said:
At today's price you can recover your capital if you choose. To me that would be the wisest choice as you appear somewhat uncomfortable with the initial investment decision in the first place.
Click to expand...

forgot to mention that I sold my 20000 units which I bought in at 0.09 at the price 0.105 on the day after ... and it kept rising after that .

others like PDN, IPL,GMG ,I was too care too keep them longer... result of week ago s big big drop .

could I ask you how to ur emotion with this market ?

another question is where to put the stop loss point?
a few times my stocks got sold out and then the price come back again ...

thank you .


xiu
 

Xiu, mate. Think about what you are doing. You need to be a "dream maker", not a "Dream Chaser", and thats what you doing, your chasing trades.

First, determine whether you are a trader, or investor.

If you are a trader then come up with a strategy, and a plan for each single trade.

If you have some spare money, do some reading.

Take care with your money mate, it can be hard to come by.

CanOz
 
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