MGO
Mkt Structure
Shares
125m
65m 20c 28/2/08 Options
Mkt Cap @ 20c = $38m (Includes $13m worth of options)
Mkt Cap @ 30c = $57m (Includes $13m worth of options)
Mkt Cap @ 40c = $76m (Includes $13m worth of options)
Mkt Cap @ 50c = $95m (Includes $13m worth of options)
Cash
$8m + $13m from opies = $21m
Projects
Yandeera Copper/Moly + Gold, 100%, PNG
This project has had something like $30m spent on it be previous explorers such as BHP who left the project in the 1970's due to very low commodity prices,
BHP outlined a resource of 1.143 Billion tonnes @ 0.33% Copper + 0.015% Moly = 0.5% Copper Equiv
Marengo did some intial work last year to confirm all the previous work and estimates and came out with a first pass intial JORC of 371Mt @0.35% Cu + 0.014% Moly = 0.49% Cu Equiv
A new JORC is due out very shortly and should be in the order of say 500Mt-600Mt@0.5-0.6% Cu Equiv
Its only a matter of time however before MGO deliver a 1Billion tonne + JORC grading 0.5% Cu Equiv as we know its there, its just not JORC compliant as the estimation was done pre 2004 when the JORC code was introduced.
Of significant importance is the fact that about 30kms to the North, Chinese firms are developing the large Ramu Nickel Mine and thus alot of the infrastructure costs such as power roads and even transport are mostly taken care of.
Value Comparison
The most obvious comparison is with PMH, Pac Mag which went from 20c - 60c over 2 days after releasing a JORC for its Ann Mason deposit in Nevada, it was 810Mt@ 0.44% Cu Equiv, HOWEVER PMH's deposit has about 100m - 200m of overburden soil, ie the mineralisation doesn't really start until you get 100-200m down, thats alot of top soil/waste soil
In contrast MGO's Yandeera's mineralisation is from surface! ie very very low waste and top soil
Now PMH at 50c = Mkt Cap of $75m
@ 75m MGO should be at 40c
Yandeera EV (Take Over value)
Now the best way to value a large Copper deposit is on an EV per lb basis, generaly speaking large copper deposits have an EV per lb basis of between 2.5c as an absolute minimum all the way up to say 25c per lb based on grade, how deep the deposit is, infrastrucutre, risk and so on
Using the lowest EV of 2.5c per lb and Yandeera's current 4Billion lb's Copper Equiv = $100m = 50c MGO
Assuming the New JORC comes in at say 500Mt@0.5% Cu Equiv = 5.5Billion lb's Cu Equiv @ 2.5c per lb = $137.5m = 72c MGO
Valuation
Current EV Yandeera = $100m
Expected New JORC = $137.5m
Cash + Options = $21m
Current Value = $121m = 63c
Expected New Value = $158.5m = 83c
Summary
There is alot of info on MGO's web page so if your curious where I got alot of my information from go there,
There is also a few articles out there that recommend MGO as the next Tethyan Copper type takeover,
For some reason the Aussie Mkt sees PNG as risky which is crap, the country depends on mining for its GDP so it will always assist, moreover it is corrupt so if you allign Govt and Company interests you won't have any problems, the PNG gov't super fund has invested in MGO so I'd say the Gov't will ensure MGO gets approvals for everything they need so as to maximise MGO value
Finally MGO is looking to list on the TSX or North American mkt later this year, management have been told that given their current position where they listed on say the TSX their Mkt Cap would be 2-3x what it is now.
I expect a NEW JORC soon as well as more spectacular drilling intersections ie 81m at 2.39% Cu Equiv
Enjoy
The last time when theres a surge in SP with similar volume was in 03/10/06, the price surged 20% in 2days, that was before the feasibility study was released. So looking at the 20% jump today, iI dont think it'll go any higher today. Possible a drop tomorrow, well lets hope not!!
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