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Ive beein reading a few of Daryl Guppys books (which are really good!), and he reakons one of the big mistakes made by people is thinking that you can predict what the share price is going to do just based on the chart. He outlines the difference between prediction (Its going to go up or down) and probability (the chance of it going up or down). He says that you cant say for sure that its going to go up or its going to go down, buy you can make a reasonable estimate based on the probability. Note: not quantitative but qualitative probabilty.