Thought I'd do a follow up on this as I almost picked the high with the timing of my above analysis.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse for MIN with not only the share price down circa 65% from the Jan '23 high, but the fundamentals in this company are still garbage too.
Share price is currently $33.63.
MIN is currently trading at 52x earnings based on the 2024 AR. Implied growth rate of the business at these levels (based on the simplified formula in Benjamin Grahams booked noted above:
Valuation = Current (Normal) Earnings x (8.5 + 2x expected annual growth rate) is 21.93%p.a. MIN has become
more expensive even with a 65% price drop as the fundamentals deteriorate along side the share price.
Free Cash Flow
Looking at the financials, net cash from operating activities in 2024 is $1.449B with CapEx being $2.108B. This means MIN has negative free cashflow of -$659M or -$3.37 per share.
This is deceiving because if you just take the comprehensive net income figure from the income statement, you'd be remiss to think that MIN are profitable, albeit in a reduced capacity - which is not true. Once you factor in the $659M in negative free cash flow, the real basic earnings per share for 2024 are
-276.29 Cents.
Debt
As I mentioned in my last analysis, this company understates their debt level at face value, and you need to go hunting into the notes to find the truth. At face value the debt-to-equity ratio is 2.41x, however it gets worse. Jump to page 187 of the AR and you will find we need add another $961M of capital commitments not recognised as liabilities on the balance sheet. This brings the total debt level up to circa $9.6B and the D/E ratio up to 2.68x.
View attachment 188707
Almost $10B in debt, they still paid out $170M in dividends to shareholders during FY24, and they're not even cash flow positive by a
LONG way.
I wouldn't be touching this company with a bargepole.
The share price still has a long way south to go.