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rapture,
its unfortunate when a co's potential is not matched by its willingness to keep s/h's and potential s/h's regularly informed of significant steps forward in its growth
agree with your point re mhl prospects [read potential]
whether medina is indeed tinpot, it is disappointing that mhl has not chosen to 'pierce the veil', in an informative sense (to the market)
ie who are medina
the most info that mhl has released re medina is that it is
ok so the kyrgyz bit relates to the currently loveless mhl/medina tryst
as to the aust exploitation, has medina lodged the security payments ... anyone?
ie as medina has been presented, are they more than bluff and bluster
or are they canny private equity investors who are not about to formalise agreements or cough up the readies in the current global environ
if the mhl/medina jv fell apart what would it mean
mhl retains the leases [potential - described in some quarters as elephantine]
and retains the opportunity to improve on the 15% free-carried hoa
as the papuan delegate said to the us delegate at the recent bali global warming (not necessarily appropriate here, but what the) get-together - sign on the dotted line or 'get out of the way'
if there really is potential with the leases, surely a more legit jv partner can be found
like santos or woodside, or how about a us oil major
cheers
Nothing has changed. It is a big speccie and will be for some time yet. You have three options;What do other holders think of MHL at the moment?
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Does this mean that MHL need a formal J/V before Medina starts to fund the operation?
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The company signed and announced a heads of agreement (hoa) with the hong kong based medina group that outlines the terms and conditions for a comprehensive joint venture and joint venture operating agreement going forward. The significant legal documentation relating to the joint venture has been completed by the company and is currently with the jv partner for their independent revue. [sic]
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The hoa envisages the [sic] medina will cover monitor's forward exploration and possible development expenditures on the kygyrz republic oil and gas licenses with monitor essentially free carried to the commencement of commercial production.
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... continuing its efforts to expedite the joint venture ...
Looks like you have started something. Up over 35% so far today. What is the news, I can't find anything new.Well this is just unbelievable, almost makes me wish I could take the company over at these levels,
Its just so ridiculously cheap given the upside offered, shows the mkt has really no appetite for these stocks atm,
Company is partly to blame given its lack of news flow,
However this greatly antcipated JV formalisation should really firm things up for the company
Still waiting
Looks like you have started something. Up over 35% so far today. What is the news, I can't find anything new.
MHL
Mkt Structure
Shares
635m
Mkt Cap @3c = $19m Current
Mkt Cap @4c = $25m
Mkt Cap @5c = $32m Target 1 if CIG hit Oil on adjacent lease
Mkt Cap @6c = $38m
Mkt Cap @7c = $45m Target 2 if a major like Santos or Chineses National Oil farm in
Cash $2m
Ascent Capital
To begin with MHL is an Ascent Capital re-cap, however I always viewed it as the one that never made it,
When you consider their other re-caps, EXT 2c -15c, DYL 2c-65c, BLR 2c-25c, WMT 2c-30c, even MKY 2c-9c, thus MHL's 2c- 4c seems an anomoly, I would think its the last decent Ascent Capital re cap left to run.
So given their track record and the fact that you see the Steinpris name (Ascent Capital) still on the share registry suggests that more is still to come, in addition to this Ascent Capital control 50% of the Uranium projects and so this all makes for a very interesting mix.
Management
Oil and Gas The 2 main men are Scott Spencer and Ted Ellyard, both are the ex creators/architects of Hardman Resources, they took HDR from "a market cap of less than $5m in 1994 to eventually over $1.5 BILLION"
Thus these two oil boys know what they're doing and as such MHL has been viewed by some such as Peter Strachan of Sotck Analysis as Ted Ellyards next oil and gas venture.
Uranium
The Uranium project is being managed by Leopard
Leopard is an unlisted private company thats owned and controlled by Ascent Capital, its technical guys are James Pratt who is the Managing Director of Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL) and Dr Joe Drake-Brockman who is in charge of technical explorationa and development for DYL.
So effictively Leopard is a mini DYL, created by the creators of DYL and managed and run by the current DYL top boys who have taken DYL from $5m to over $500m.
Projects
Kyrgyz Oil Oil and Gas, 100%, Kyrgyzstan
Surrounded by many prolific oil and gas producing basins which have produced probably a few BILLION BARRELS OF OIL and a few Trillion Feet of Gas, reserves are still a few Billion Barrels of Oil and a couple of Trillion feet of Gas.
The obvious comparison is as Warrick Grigor has done, to that of Caspian Oil and Gas (CIG),
"Three years ago we spent a week in the Kyrgyz Republic, coming to grips with a junior oil stock named Afminex (it subsequently changed its name to
Caspian Oil and Gas). Back then, the shares were less than 1.8 ¢, the company had precious little cash, the market capitalisation was $8m and the oil price was only US$30-35/bbl.
Since then it has raised more than $20m, it has signed a joint venture with Santos and, independent of that JV, it is preparing to drill a number of shallow targets. CIG’s market capitalisation is approximately $170m
with the share price at 16.5 ¢. Our clients have done very well out of CIG, irrespective of whether or not they hit big oil in the forthcoming program."
So CIG's Mkt Cap has gone from $8m to $170m yielding a return of 2125% over 3 yrs, however over the last 5 months the stock has yielded over 300% (5.5c - 16.5c)
Given CIG's current Mkt Cap of $170m I would expect MHL to move up to 5c =$32m if CIG hit oil, moreover if MHL, which is in the final stages of negotiating a farm out, gets someone like Santos, or even the Chinese National Oil Corp I would expect a re-rating towards 7c = $45m.
There is not too much info on target size or potential of MHL's Oil and Gas licences however the company is in the final stages of interpreting and reprocessing data to determine drill targets, priority survey area's etc etc in addition to this further survey results are due back,
So to summarise there are 3 potential catalysts fora re-rating of MHL because of its oil and gas leases
1. CIG striking oil
2. A farm in partner such as Santos or Chinese National Oil Corp
3. Siesmic/survey updates with target/potential size of oil targets
Kyrgyz Uranium Uranium, 50%, Kyrgyzstan,
Intial target 600k-700kt's@0.1% U = 1.5Mlb's U
This is just an intial target, base don historic work/drilling by the soviets, mineralisation is reported at surface and up to depths of 150m's over a strike of 800m's, they "mineralised seam widths" vary form 4.2m's to 6.6m's and avg 0.03% - 0.4% U
Its early days here but given the current mkt cap of other companies operating in Kyrgyz such as MRO mkt cap $50m and NMR mkt cap $100m there is plenty of upside value for MHL once a JORC is released I would expect $20m of attributable value = 3c
As stated the Uranium project is being managed by Leopard
Leopard is an unlisted private company thats owned and controlled by Ascent Capital, its technical guys are James Pratt who is the Managing Director of Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL) and Dr Joe Drake-Brockman who is in charge of technical explorationa and development for DYL.
So effictively Leopard is a mini DYL, created by the creators of DYL and managed and run by the current DYL top boys who have taken DYL from $5m to over $500m.
Summary
- Chart wise support seems to be 3.2c and then 2.6c, however I doubt we will see it fall below 3c
- Its is a direct comparison to CIG, even Grigor is getting his clients who he got on to CIG very early days on to this, moreover any drilling success for CIG will boost MHL's prospectivity and thus SP
- A farm in deal for MHL's oil and gas licences is in the final stages, if its Santos or Chinese Oil watch out!
- The Oil managment is excellent being ex HDR architects who took the company from $5m to over $1.5Billion
- The Uranium management via Leopard is also excellent as its all the DYL boys who took DYL from $5m to $500m
- So given it is being run by the people he created so much value for HDR and DYL, as well as the fact that it can be compared to CIG for oil and MRO/NMR for the Uranium MHL seems cheap!
Ok a few questions to an uneducated person in regards to options.
2.5 mil shares @ 2.5c = $62,500. But they can't get that money till Mar 2011. ie 3 years
So can you take it that after inflation of 3 years, that the services paid for today have a lesser value than the value of the options?
Ie they did $45,000 of work today (just for example) but will be paid $62,500 in 3 years.
Is that the way it works?
I also take it that if the share price is 10.0c in 3 years time then they will get $250,000 for their services.
So my base question from all of this is how much consultancy do you get for 2.5 mil shares ay 2.5c payable in 3 years time?
A google search of Jackson Geophysical Consulting hasn't revealed much.
Volume and sp are reminicent of 7th Jan 08 which was on the anouncement of a new Company Secretary only for the price to fade away in the weeks to follow.
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2.5 mil shares @ 2.5c = $62,500. But they can't get that money till Mar 2011. ie 3 years
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In summary, the east side of the North Makassar Strait is a significant, new gas hydrate province containing considerable volumes of methane. The area exhibits several hydrate related phenomena such as mud volcanoes, palaeo-BSRs and submarine slides which, although not new, are rarely seen together. Furthermore, the gas hydrates overlie what may prove to be a prospective conventional hydrocarbon exploration area in the West Sulawesi Fold Belt. The information provided in this paper may provide an impetus to oil companies to investigate further gas hydrates whilst exploring for conventional hydrocarbons.
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The fundamentals are still good but I'm less than impressed with MHL's management communications and transparency in advising the market of the delay.
Your not alone with your frustrations rapture,
I'd say alot here (including myself) share your thoughts, great fundamentals and very cheap mkt cap, but lack of communication
I have no doubt that these delays and more importantly the lack of communication has led to the share price collapse (combined with investment market meltdown over the last few months) however once everything is signed off MHL will still hold a nice 15% almost free carried interest in potential Elephant Sized Oil and Gas fields next door to the enrgy hungry China and this combined with their Uranium projects and potential Oil and Gas projects in South East Asia make MHL my spec potential multi bagger energy stock BUT THATS JUST MY THOUGHTS
Your thoughts and those of many others YT. Do you or indeed anyone know if Russian giant LUKOIL hold any leases in or around the area of Kryg where MHL are ?
ba229, u are right about the bearish trading activity in MHL over the last six months. However this has been fairly typical of bearish market conditions thru nearly all of the specs. Over the last few months there has been a basing pattern taking place in the DOW and S&P, if we take these two indicators as being reasonably representative of the tone in international markets then it is time to hunt thru the the Aussie spec "fallen knives" to find tradable situations. On fundamentals MHL is undervalued (see Young Trader comments) AND yesterday we had signs that some of those fundamentals may be on the cusp of some positive deal making activity. Yesterdays turnover of 32 million shares was the second highest turnover in 4 months. Althou activity for one day does not establish a bullish reversal pattern yesterdays trading activity was pretty fast and furious and took the SP back to a very weak resistance level at 2.0-2.2. I have posted a chart of trading activity over the last five days at 15 minute intervals and it is readily apparent that a "breakway" from a twelve month low of 43% took place. This may over time build into a significant reversal pattern. At present we are looking for a break above the current resistance level of 2.1-2.2 which may give us a target of 2.8 in the very short term, assuming that trading levels stay active.[/QUOte
AND then she went KERPLUNK. Sadly a lot of these issues are getting illiquid and subject to the whims of daytraders. Still looks interesting but i pulled out of MHL, she still looks interesting and very cheaply priced. Might need to "brew" a little longer at these levels.
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