Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MGC - MG Unit Trust

Jump to new
Re: MGC - Murray Goulburn IPO

All that I know is what I heard an analyst say.He said that he liked Murray Goulbourn because they produced milk at the lowest price in Australia
What he didn't like is that it would be controlled by a group of dairy farmers.I suppose by that he meant a non-professional board.
Not much info there!
 
Re: MGC - Murray Goulburn IPO

Controlled by dairy farmers? Sounds a plus to me.
 
Re: MGC - Murray Goulburn IPO

Knobby22 said:
Controlled by dairy farmers? Sounds a plus to me.
Click to expand...

Yeah so this is the Murray Goulburn co-operative, a co - op of dairy farmers, not to be confused with the old Dairy farmers co - op that sold out to National Foods/Kirin back in 2007....the old dairy farmers co - op proved that dairy farmers running a big dairy foods business can work very very well.

http://www.dairyfarmers.com.au/our-story/our-history/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Goulburn_Co-operative
 
Re: MGC - Murray Goulburn IPO

Another broker report from Morgan CIMB. The full report is 75 pages long and very detailed. i have copied the cover page with a basic outline, needless to say, Morgans are very bullish on MGC.

QUOTE:

ADD
Current price: Target price: Up/downside: Reuters: Bloomberg: Market cap:
Average daily turnover:
Current shares o/s Free float:
Price performance
Absolute (%) Relative (%)
Financial Summary
Revenue (A$m) Operating EBITDA (A$m) Net Profit (A$m) Normalised EPS (A$)
Normalised EPS Growth
A$2.12 A$2.50 17.9% MGC.AX MGC AU US$321.4m A$443.1m US$2.34m A$3.16m 554.8m 38.0%
Mg Unit Trust
Strong leverage to a dairy price recovery
Murray Goulburn (MG) - Australia’s largest dairy foods company
MG is Australia’s largest dairy foods company and is a co-operative that is 100% controlled by Australian dairy farmers. It manufactures products for wholesale and retail customers in both domestic and export markets. MG operates 11 facilities across NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and China. Its annual milk intake of 3.6bn litres (38% of Australia’s milk) comes from >2,600 farmer suppliers. MG continues to move its sales mix towards value added (high margin) dairy products such as fresh milk, consumer packaged cheese, dairy beverages and infant nutritional products. Its flagship brand is Devondale.
Solid growth prospects when dairy prices recover
MG’s profit growth will be driven by rising dairy prices, a lower AUD, increased milk supply, its capital investment program, further efficiency benefits, a focus on higher margin products and leveraging the high growth markets in Asia. From FY12-15, MG delivered A$107m of cost savings and benefits to suppliers through higher milk prices. The company now intends to deliver an additional A$173m of benefits by the end of FY19 to achieve its target of A$280m. MG expects additional benefits will come from further cost savings, efficiency measures, mix benefits and its A$550–635m capital investment program in state-of-the-art cheese, UHT and nutritional facilities. Importantly, all facilities will be based on the latest technology, be fully automated, have a cost advantage to competitors and increase MG’s exposure to higher margin products.
MGC provides investors with an economic exposure to MG
MGC allows investors the opportunity to participate in a share of MG’s earnings pool that is linked to the farm-gate milk price (FMP), which is its key performance indicator. Under its profit sharing allocation mechanism, outcomes for suppliers through farm-gate milk prices and dividends are aligned to outcomes for investors through dividends and distribution paid. In essence, the higher the milk price paid to suppliers, the higher the dividend to unitholders.
Initiate coverage with an Add rating and A$2.50 price target
MGC provides investors with a solid exposure to improving dairy industry fundamentals and MG’s strong earnings growth profile from its capital investment program. MGC also offers investors an attractive fully franked distribution yield. Key risks include falling dairy prices, a poor season, increased competition for milk intake, loss of a major contract and the capital investment program not being delivered on time and on budget.



disc - Opinion only. Invested in MGC. DYOR.
 
I did a lot of research on this IPO, and had concerns about their projected GDT prices.

Helou is not a guy who likes to show weakness unless he absolutely has to, so analysing his assumptions and forecasts is a must.
 
shouldaindex said:
I did a lot of research on this IPO, and had concerns about their projected GDT prices.

Helou is not a guy who likes to show weakness unless he absolutely has to, so analysing his assumptions and forecasts is a must.
Click to expand...



I have always adopted an investment approach of “ believe half of what I see and nothing of what I hear”. There are times when a CEO’s assertions happen to coincide with my own assumptions/predictions but they are never the basis on which I make my decision to invest, or not.
My investment approach, which has served me well over the years, is to always try to determine the big picture as this will always win over any other factors that affect a company, including poor/untrustworthy Management, inflated outlooks, potential takeovers, broker recommendations etc.
In the case of MGC, I can see the following influences that will, in my view, result in an appreciation of the value of MGC. Namely:

1. Falling AUD ( favorable macro economic event )
2. Worlds 2nd lowest cost dairy producer ( competitive advantage )
3. Demand from Asia ( in particular , China )
4. Investment in world leading production facilities ( innovation and technology )
5. Market scale ( Australia’s largest producer )
6. Customer satisfaction ( quality product, reliable supply )

Disc – Invested in MGC. Opinion only.DYOR.
 
I have attached a quote from legendary investor Carl Icahn from an article on the front page of today’s SMH. He is very bearish on the world economy and, in particular, Australia. He does, however, single out agriculture ( presumably also aquaculture ) as a bright spot in Australia’s future. I have not posted the full article but it is worth a read.

Quote:

“For Australia, the end of the China-led commodities boom does not spell an end to China-led export growth. Agriculture represents a huge opportunity, as do services and education, while China's need for commodities will never be modest.”


For full article follow link:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-glo...h-us-down-the-wrong-path-20151002-gjzuu8.html



Disc – Invested in MGC, AAC, CGC, WBA, TGR, HUO and CSS
 
The stars are gradually falling in to line for the dairy industry. This article , link below, from today’s Australian describes the take over battle for VDL dairy.
There are some very revealing and interesting comments which point to a very positive future for Australia’s dairy industry.
I have singled out one of the more relevant comments, hereunder:


Quote:

"Australian dairy assets have become a huge drawcard for investors, especially from China.
Asia’s growing middle class is increasingly consuming dairy products and views Australian-produced dairy as clean and safe."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...land-dairy-group/story-e6frg906-1227567446291


Disc – Opinion only, invested in MGC. DYOR.
 
An interesting article from today’s Australian reports on the impact “ El Nino “ will have on agricultural commodities and more importantly commodity prices.
This is as a result of weather related supply shortages. I hadn’t considered the effect of “ El Nino” , however, I consider it to be another event akin to a favourable macro-economic event such as the falling AUD.

To read the full article, follow the link below.
I have also quoted one of the more relevant sentences in the article for your consideration:

Quote;

“ Several agricultural prices have rallied off their lows on fears of weather-related supply shortages. Sugar prices have risen 31 per cent over the past three weeks; dairy is up 36 per cent, palm oil has gained 13.1 per cent and wheat is up 6.1 per cent over the same *period.”


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-nino-takes-hold/story-fnay3ubk-1227567903112


Disc – Opinion only. Invested in MGC, CGC, AAC and WBA. DYOR.
 
Bell Potter have raised their price target for MGC from $2.37 to $ 2.68.
Broker report, hereunder:

BELL POTTER RESEARCH

Since reaching its August low, the GDT index has rallied 63%, with individual product streams up 60-80%. The recovery in the GDT mix has also been matched with a strong upward move in dairy futures markets in NZ, with the YTD average and forward curve prices implying YOY gains of +27% in WMP, +11% in SMP and +26% in Butter in AUD terms. Production cuts in NZ (FY16e production to be down more than 5%) have been the major driver of the turnaround in dairy prices and if sustained now suggest FY16e target FMP payment ranges of $5.80-6.20/KgMS are significantly more achievable. MCG is highly leveraged to a rising FMP (which is inherently linked to international commodity prices) and we retain our Buy rating with an upwardly revised target price of $2.68ps.
From then to now
The recent surge in global dairy ingredient prices coupled with the deterioration in the Australian dollar are material tailwinds for the earning prospects of MGC. Implied FY16e AUD dairy ingredient prices for WMP, SMP & butter are now well ahead of levels seen at the time of the MGC IPO. Following a review of our pricing assumptions for the commodity streams of MGC we have upgraded NPAT forecasts by +13% in FY16e, +10% in FY17e and +10% in FY18e. As a result of these changes we also upgrade our target price to $2.68ps (prev. $2.35ps).Investment view: retain Buy rating
MGC is highly leveraged to rising dairy ingredient prices via the profit sharing mechanism which links returns to the FMP. In a rising FMP environment this profit sharing mechanism sees an increasing share of the milk pool allocated to unit holders, between a FMP band of $5.00-7.00/KgMS, meaning that MCG carries greater upside leverage to rising milk prices than other listed exposures. A more favourable commodity pricing environment and gaining exposure to the benefits of MGC’s capital investment program support our Buy rating.




Disc – Opinion only. Invested in MGC. DYOR.
 
This article from yesterday's Australian makes for compelling reading. The opportunity to invest in this sector at reasonable prices won't last long in my view. The CFT deal will be the final catalyst for enduring strong growth in the decades ahead.

Disc - Opinion only. Invested in MGC. DYOR.


CHINA KEEN TO INVEST IN AUST DAIRY
OCTOBER 16, 2015 9:45PM

China is seeking to step up its investment in Australia's dairy industry amid growing domestic demand and rising import prices, a senior Australian industry representative says.

Dairy Industry's international trade development manager, Peter Myers, said increased demand along with higher prices for imported dairy and food safety concerns have prompted China to look at investing in Australia.

"It would be a matter of time before we see significant Chinese investment because Chinese companies are very, very interested in securing supply of dairy product for infant formula, in particular - also for drinking milk," Mr Myers said.

China's dairy industry has been plagued by issues of food security and safety, with scandals surrounding the production of infant formula leading to infant deaths and illness.

Mr Myers says there is strong interest in investment from Chinese companies.

"There have been examples of investment at the farm level and we are aware and have had many investment delegations, missions, companies coming down to Australia looking at opportunities to invest into manufacturing as well," he told AAP during an industry promotion seminar.

China is the world's largest single national importer of dairy goods and its dairy market is the fastest growing in the world.

"Every city has coffee shops, everywhere you go, as well as fast food restaurants, and all these are driving demand for cheese or for dairy products in general," Mr Myers said.

Australia's dairy exports to greater China in 2014-15 stood at $424 million, accounting for 15 per cent of all global dairy exports from Australia.

Australia's major export market is Southeast Asia, accounting for 35 per cent of global exports worth $1.022 billion.

"China is the world's largest importer of dairy as a single market, and we believe it's got a long way to go yet in terms of growth as economic growth continues," Mr Myers said.
 
This article in today's Australian newspaper:


CHINA GIANT COFCO LOOKING AT BEEF , DAIRY SECTORS
THE AUSTRALIAN OCTOBER 27, 2015 12:00AM


China’s biggest food company, Cofco, plans to look at investments in the Australian dairy and beef industries as it moves to *become the face of China’s transformation of its biggest state-owned enterprises into globally competitive corporations.

Cofco president Patrick Yu told a private roundtable forum in Melbourne, hosted by the Australian not-for-profit The Global Foundation, that Cofco was at the forefront of SOE reform and that more partnerships with Australian companies would help drive its new global, commercially *focused mandate.

“For us it is very important to build a supply chain by working together with our partners. We are becoming a global citizen. We are not just a Chinese company any more,’’ Mr Yu told the forum during a rare visit to Australia.

In unusually frank comments for the CEO of a top government-backed Chinese enterprise, he *acknowledged it was challenging for an SOE to become more *market-oriented.

But he said the Chinese government planned to delegate more power to the commercial platform of Cofco and that his company’s “systems’’ were starting to change as a result.

He said Cofco’s management team and staff were learning to balance the demands of playing by global rules on the global stage while at the same time growing a local identity in the areas in which it operates, noting it “wasn’t easy”.

“While we have to be globalised, we also have to be in the local circle. You have to work closely with local industry, local people.”

Cofco ”” or China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation ”” is one of the largest SOEs of the 49 directly administrated by China’s State Council.

Last year it was one of a handful of enterprises chosen by the authority to lead reforms of the SOE sector after a string of poor international investments by SOEs led to huge losses across a range of sectors in recent years.

As China’s largest food *processing, manufacturer and trader, Cofco has bought several smaller domestic firms in recent years. Then last year it made its *biggest steps onto the global stage with $US2.7 billion to acquire Dutch grain trader Nidera and 51 per cent of Noble Group’s agriculture unit, giving it new pathways into South America and central Europe.

In the interim, in 2011 it made its first acquisition in Australia, paying $145 million for Tully Sugar in Queensland, which *supplies 10 per cent of Australia’s annual sugar crush.

Mr Yu said Cofco had learned plenty from its ownership of Tully that it was applying to other parts of its empire, including sending its Tully Sugar farming expert to Brazil in a bid to reduce the company’s sugar chain production cost from its South American operations.

Mr Yu added that Australia remained a prime target for investment.

“With Chinese consumers, today people are strongly aware that Australian food and agricultural products are safer, good *quality, good products, good innovation to the China market,’’ he told the forum.

“We should have some local partners in Australia. Victoria is very strong in the dairy sector so we should look into that. The other area is protein ”” I think beef is the next potential area for Australia to China. Australia is in the best position for fresh produce.”

The Australian beef market is enjoying record high prices driven by increased demand from Asia for live cattle and boxed beef.

Last year, Cofco signed a memorandum of understanding for a landmark Asian Food Partnership with the Global Foundation.

It set the terms and understanding between the two for *mutual co-operation in contributing to an Asian Food Partnership and to global food security.

“I believe that with the support of the Global Foundation, Cofco can have the chances and opportunities to grow our business not only in Australia, but elsewhere,’’ Mr Yu said. “We can bring China demand and Australian suppliers into China and Australia will *become much stronger trading partners in the long run.’’

The Global Foundation is *already working with National Farmers Federation chief executive Simon Talbot, who attended the Melbourne forum, to forge relationships with the food-focused parts of Cofco.

Cofco has four companies listed in Hong Kong: China Foods, China Agri-Industries Holdings, Mengniu Dairy and Cofco Packaging Holdings.

“We are putting a team around Simon that develops an innovation centre for SMEs to better understand the China market and work with Cofco as partner,’’ said Global Foundation secretary-*general Steve Howard, who will visit Mr Yu again in *Beijing early next month.

But Mr Yu said the partnership with the Global Foundation could also extend into other sectors.

“There is (also) much more *potential for the Global Foundation to bring together players in the healthcare and education industries,’’ he said.

The Foundation’s Asian Food Partnership with Cofco is also complemented by a focus on *supply chains and export infrastructure, which has been led by Aurizon CEO Lance Hockridge over the past 18 months.

Mr Hockridge plans to take a team to China in the coming months to meet with Cofco to examine the company’s supply chains and distribution systems.
 
It looks like investors are finally wakening up to the fact that future strong growth will come from companies exposed to China's move from a production based economy to a consumer based economy. The food sector is in the box seat to benefit from this fundamental shift in demand. I expect this realisation to impact all food sectors, not just dairy.

This article( hereunder ), in today's Australian, refers mainly to dairy but I would be inclined to include Seafood, Fruit/Veg, Beef and other agricultural commodities in this assessment. Further more, I view the recent rise in the asset values of these entities as " very much the beginning" with the real gains yet to come!

Disc- Opinion only. Invested in MGC, CGC, AAC, WBA, TGR, HUO and CSS. DYOR.


QUOTE:

ASX dairy stocks end year on high, buoyed by Chinese demand
THE AUSTRALIAN
DECEMBER 31, 2015 12:00AM



Investors have flocked to listed dairy stocks for exposure to China’s insatiable *demand for *export-oriented food plays.

Listed dairy shares have ended the year on a high due to Chinese demand for Australian food products.

Investors have flocked to listed dairy stocks for exposure to China’s insatiable *demand for *export-oriented food plays.

Listed dairy shares have ended the year on a high due to Chinese demand for Australian food products

Listed dairy stocks are ending the year on a strong note, as *investors flock to the sector for exposure to China’s insatiable *demand for *export-oriented food plays.
The biggest winner, dairy farm consolidator Australian Dairy Farms, has seen its shares soar 200 per cent after Tuesday’s *announcement of an $11 million deal to buy Victorian processor Camperdown Dairy Company.
Shares in processor Bega Cheese also bounded to a record high of $8.13 in morning trade, having climbed 25 per cent over two days. Late profit-taking saw the stock close 15c lower at $7.13.
Bega’s price surge has been *attributed to the halo effect of the runaway performance of infant formula and nutraceutical stocks Bellamy’s and Blackmores, on the back of extraordinary Chinese demand. In particular, investors appear to have woken up to the potential of a supply link between Bega and Blackmores, announced on October 29.
The duo has formed an equal partnership to develop a range of nutritional products, including high-quality infant formula, through Bega subsidiary Tatura.
Blackmores has a huge distribution presence in Asia across 25,000 chemists. “You see 60 Blackmores products on a big long wall and it’s easy for them to say here’s another vitamin E or infant formula product,’’ ruminated one dairy watcher.
Australian Dairy Farms’ phone has not stopped ringing with queries since it *unveiled the Camperdown deal, which creates the country’s only vertically integrated owner of farms and processing facilities. The company is only one of two local suppliers with quarantine clearance to sell fresh milk to China, on a seven-day turnaround.
Chief executive Adrian Rowley concedes the market is still small, with the firm’s shorter-term prospects focused on a white-label contract with Woolworths and developing its own brands for the domestic market.
The Camperdown facility is also running at less than half of its capacity of 36 million litres a year.
The rush to dairy has benefited the share price of processor Warrnambool Cheese & Butter, which is controlled by Canadian group Saputo after a spirited three-way takeover tussle in 2013.
With Saputo accounting for 88 per cent of the register and Lion Nathan a further 10 per cent, the shares are sparsely traded. Units in rival processor Murray Goulburn’s listed vehicle, the MG Trust, have also hit record highs.
Investors also have exposure to New Zealand’s Fonterra, the world’s biggest milk processor, through its ASX-listed Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund. Fonterra shares have been on the march since Novem*ber 30, when the company announced a new five-year deal to supply Bellamy’s with a range of nutritional powders.
Bellamy’s shares closed yesterday $1.46, or 9 per cent, lower, but not before hitting a fresh intraday high of $16.50.
One critic questions whether Bellamy’s $1.35 billion market valuation is justified by its modest performance: a net pro*fit of $9m on revenue of $130m in 2014-15.
Bellamy’s was the second-best performing ASX 300 stock this year, with a 750 per cent gain.
 
Weird one this - volatility gone through the roof and its pushed higher. That being said it traded in the 2.90's Tuesday only to close below 2.50 yesterday.

I have no understanding of the underlying fundamentals but that's pretty crazy action.

I hold (nervously) based on technical reasons.
 
Trading halt not looking good. It would appear that the rising $AUD is taking it's toll on MGC.
Will wait for announcement for more details.
 

Similar threads

Dona Ferentes
PCX - Pengana Global Private Credit Trust
Replies
14
Views
2K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
greggles
IBIT - iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ)
Replies
0
Views
518
greggles
greggles
Dona Ferentes
LRV - Larvotto Resources
2 3
Replies
43
Views
8K
Boggo
Boggo
System
TMB - Tambourah Metals
Replies
2
Views
2K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
bigdog
J Capital Research
Replies
1
Views
2K
greggles
greggles
Top