MCR - Mincor Resources

mullokintyre · 28 October 2022

Mcr crunched today after quarterly report out today.
bit puzzled, as it has taken mines out of mothballs and restrted production. made a cash loss, somperhaps thats the problem.
i bought in on this weakness. Nickel prices holding up as the LME wharehouse levels contunue to fall.
mick

Tyre Kicker · 28 October 2022

I don’t get either Mick.

charlsie · 29 October 2022

it's got me stumped too, hopefully mick, in a years time it looks like a great pick up. I've been on MCR for 20 years now and very much expecting them to head the other way in the foreseeable future

sptrawler · 29 October 2022

I only had a quick look at announcements, but the reserve update only seemed to include the Durken/ Long body, it didn't include Casini.
Maybe the speculators misread it and thought that was the only ore MCR has?
I'm currently away from the computer, hopefully someone can find some info, but I will be topping up when I get home.

divs4ever · 29 October 2022

mullokintyre said:
Mcr crunched today after quarterly report out today.
bit puzzled, as it has taken mines out of mothballs and restarted production. made a cash loss, somperhaps thats the problem.
i bought in on this weakness. Nickel prices holding up as the LME wharehouse levels contunue to fall.
mick

given the now tolerated practices in listed stocks ( where predators , not always take-over aspirants , obviously allow short-selling raids )

you might ask if MCR needs extra finance , they could be lined up to do a capital raise in a stressed atmosphere , less likely would be BHP weakening them as a prelude to a take-over offer ( they already have an off-take deal with Nickel West ) ( such a take-over offer would make more sense on PAN , so as to grab more resource )

MCR as mentioned has an off-take deal so is less likely to be forced into a hedging arrangement

i hold MCR ( 'free-carried' ) PAN and BHP

mullokintyre · 29 October 2022

The Evil Murdoch Empire in the form of the Australian had a bit to say about MCR this weekeknd.

The long-term thematic for nickel is bullish – Benchmark says we need 72 new 42,500 tonne nickel mines by 2035 to meet battery demand – but the short term ain’t bad either.

While USD nickel prices have remained reasonably static, in Australian dollar terms (Mincor’s sales price exposure) the price has continued to trend upwards, appreciating about 8 per cent over the quarter.

“By quarter-end, the nickel price was trading at $US22,290/t, or A$34,282/t, well above the price assumed in Mincor’s 2020 Definitive Feasibility Study ($US15,750t/AUD$22,500/t),” the company says.

“Continuing the trend observed over the past 12 months and reflecting the growing tightness in the physical market, LME nickel stockpiles steadily decreased, falling to 52,758 tonnes by 30 September 2022, representing considerably less than one month of global demand.”
Base metal prices fell by as much as 2.2 per cent on Thursday, with aluminium down the most.

The gold futures price also fell by $US3.60 an ounce, or 0.2 per cent, to $US1,665.60 an ounce. Spot gold was trading near $US1,661 an ounce at the US close.

Meanwhile, iron ore futures fell by US75 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $US92.81 a tonne.

The S&P/ ASX Materials index was down ~3.3 per cent in early trade Friday, dragged lower by … well, almost everyone.

The thesis is that the market was disappointed that after a six year halt, the starting up of mining/refining did not produce more nickel.
The immediate horizon however, suggests that the company is in a good position to benefit from tight Nickel supplies.
My purchase was close to the lows, more thru luck of timing than some skill at picking the lows.
Mick

divs4ever · 29 October 2022

mullokintyre said:
The Evil Murdoch Empire in the form of the Australian had a bit to say about MCR this weekeknd.

The thesis is that the market was disappointed that after a six year halt, the starting up of mining/refining did not produce more nickel.
The immediate horizon however, suggests that the company is in a good position to benefit from tight Nickel supplies.
My purchase was close to the lows, more thru luck of timing than some skill at picking the lows.
Mick

given recent variations in nickel price , would you be happy with a company that expanded recklessly ( or even aggressively , like WSA )

MCR has an agreement with Nickel West , surely living up to that agreement and cautiously expanding from there , is the sensible choice

i might also point out unless the world population shrinks dramatically , we will need plenty of nickel for other things apart from vehicle batteries

i was buying MCR between June 2011 ( @ 85 cents ) and July 2015 ( @ 42.5 cents ) ( av. buying price 57 cents ) and reduced ( NOT exited ) in August 2021 ( @ $1.35 )

the timing of the buying was lucky , the selling was logical opportunism to me ( time to let the profits run free )

DIVIDEND TYPE	DIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)	FRANKED	EX-DIV DATE	PAY DATE
Interim	0.020	100.00%	19/02/2015	20/03/2015
Final	0.020	100.00%	25/08/2014	24/09/2014
Interim	0.020	100.00%	18/02/2014	21/03/2014
Final	0.020	100.00%	22/08/2013	25/09/2013
Interim	0.020	100.00%	21/02/2013	22/03/2013

note the dates of the most recent divs.

sptrawler · 30 October 2022

I am hoping that MCR has been oversold due to panic selling and therefore expecting a bounce, or a please explain from the umpire.
Also as the offtake agreement with nickel west has been triggered I would assume a rapid ramp up of tonnage to meet the contracted minimum amount.

divs4ever · 30 October 2022

sptrawler said:
I am hoping that MCR has been oversold due to panic selling and therefore expecting a bounce, or a please explain from the umpire.
Also as the offtake agreement with nickel west has been triggered I would assume a rapid ramp up of tonnage to meet the contracted minimum amount.

MCR has been careful and cautious in the past ( much to my approval ) ramp up, quite likely but at , i suspect , a sensible pace

that pace might disappoint others over some time , so maybe you can calmly accumulate ( in the dips )

divs4ever · 30 October 2022

if BHP are disappointed with that. they are welcome to buy my holding for something over $1.50 a share , or a reasonable scrip deal

i hold MCR ( 'free-carried ' ) and BHP

they have the finances since OZL has refused to sell

i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' )

sptrawler · 11 November 2022

Well the production guidance in the AGM presentation looks fine, 8-10kt by the end of 2023 and up to 16kt/annum going forward. When it sells for about $US22,000/t.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02594124-6A1120669?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

sptrawler · 30 November 2022

MCR gave an update today, they have commenced the first stope at Cassini, yet are being very coy about production.
I expect some action.

divs4ever · 1 December 2022

tended to be conservative with guidance last time they were in full production , maybe they have kept that stance

sptrawler · 1 December 2022

divs4ever said:
tended to be conservative with guidance last time they were in full production , maybe they have kept that stance

Well it certainly seems strange from memory they enacted a contract trigger event in May, now they are extracting ore from Cassini, yet they only talk about ramping to full production second half 2023.
Hopefully a case of under promising and over delivering.

divs4ever · 1 December 2022

from memory that is what they did in the past , but haven't kept track of ( any ) management changes

but i would expect costs across the whole sector to keep rising ( so not expecting big profits for a while )

mullokintyre · 9 December 2022

MCR into a TH for Cap Raise.
12% discount to last close.
Sigh, just when it seems I might start to make some money on this one, wham, I get a cap raise.
\will put orders in for something less than cap sp just to spite them!
Mick

frugal.rock · 9 December 2022

The offer has been priced at A$1.39/sh, representing a 14.4% discount to the Company’s 5-day VWAP up to and
including 8 December 2022, and a 5.1% discount to the Company’s 30-day VWAP up to and including 8 December
2022.

divs4ever · 9 December 2022

MAYBE 50 cents will tempt me

the profits are running ( but the cash risk resides elsewhere )

sptrawler · 9 December 2022

In for a penny, in for a pound, I hate putting in for cap raisings as the price often goes down to it, so I will sit and wait until the last minute.
One snippet of info which, if accurate, sounded promising was:

Mincor in trading halt as $60 million capital raise is launched - Fat Tail Daily

Nickel producer Mincor aims to raise $60 million in capital to accelerate its Northern Operations through placement and SPP.

www.moneymorning.com.au

For Cassini, program commencement was initially forecast for late FY2023. However, all being well, this could push to January 2023.

That also seems to fit in with the Nov announcement about the first stope at Cassini, which I mentioned in #594 above.

sptrawler · 2 January 2023

MCR have been a favourite of mine over the last three years and the fundamentals are still the same, good resource, good location, minimal overheads and a growing market for the product. Picked them again in the yearly comp.

MCR - Mincor Resources

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