MCR - Mincor Resources

[tech/a]

Making good higher highs and higher lows.
Buying for a longer term hold.

 

[markrmau]

Re: MCR.

Thanks for the pointers - nickel is supposed to have a good run next year (but your steel comments in the china is a possible negative against this).

I was considering starting a "Techtrader entry/exit" discussion thread --- or is there already one on reefcap?

I took 1/2 profits on wpl yesterday, mainly because I wasn't happy having such a large position on it, and needed something to do with the $$.

 

[tech/a]

Re: MCR.

Bought half of what I want at .81c.

Will buy the rest when stock either finds a low from retracing or makes a new high.

As for T/T Reefcap has the portfolio that we have traded from the beginning.
we dont discuss or note every single trade found by nightly scans.
This is only done if a stock is sold and then replaced.

There is a lot to be learnt from disecting a mechanical methodology and Im happy for T/T to be used for this purpose.If you or others wish to run a portfolio or go into the idiosyncrocies of trading a mechanical method then Im happy to take part and post any test results in relation to the method being discussed(Techtrader).

Ill make this point again.It was designed to see if everyday People could design and trade a long term method profitably.Its not presented as "THE" method to trade just "A" method,from which people can learn---Perhaps answering the question----"Why Trade Mechanically?"

Its not for everyone but like most here I also started out as a short term trader.Funnily it answered a lot of questions re short term trading during the many hrs of testing!

Must say that Im a little loath to start any lengthy discussion since the last pile of posts suggesting that they were/are self serving.

 

[markrmau]

Re: MCR.

Unfortunately I bought at open, but this doesn't matter - I think this stock will run well.

Someone put down $100k on the close bid too.

Not interested in all the c ra p that has been going back and forth - I am interested in this system because I am wasting too much time watching the too and frow of the bids.

I or someone else can start a thread when an entry or exit comes up and if noone responds, thats ok, but hopefully will get discussion.

This is a test: there is a soccer team named ****nal ... who liked to play on the grassy knoll. Lorraine Crap is a famous australian swimmer.

 

[markrmau]

Re: MCR.

Thoughts on MCR anyone?

An Elliot waver might be inclined to say it is just finishing its ABC. A support / resistance fellow might hope that 75c will act as support. A fundamentalist might think that since nickel is going in the right direction we should hang on to this.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html

It's about at my stop loss, and I think I will ditch it if it breaks 75c.

 

[RichKid]

Re: MCR.

The drop in volume is what's worrying. Seems to be some consensus around the mid 70's. A drop below 75c would see it having to break resistance again. The last four bars suggest a change in sentiment, polarity is negative. I did notice some previous spikes (false breakouts) before this recent breakout. I don't expect it to go back to 60c again but it could go close. Too early to call that yet. I get the impression that more positive anncts re drilling will see this recover, but when that'll come and whether it's been built into the sp are different questions.

 

[DTM]

Re: MCR.

Looks like its been retracing to the .76 support level and consolidating. I think its only going to go back up although I don't think it will shoot back up (hopefully I'm wrong) but maybe an orderly rise.

 

[markrmau]

Re: MCR.

todays figures are good for mining expoters so i will hold

 

[RichKid]

Re: MCR.

Plenty of buyers at 75 and 76 but they will be taken out unless some new news comes through imo. Still bullish, not surprising to see it fall back a bit. March is a big month for MCR with the village work and cashflow improving.

 

[Kipp]

Re: MCR.

Not much interest in this thread in ages...
I think it looks like a winner, sitting on a P/E of 6.5 and very good track record over the past 5 years. Managed a ha;f year profit of 10 mill despite unfavourable nickel market. Now that Ni is on the rise again, what are the prospects for MCR?

My big concern is that even last year when Ni was above $8/lb the share price was only trading about 85c, therefore maybe there's not too much to get excited about- cause today it closed at 77.5c.

Anyone out there watching this one? Any thoughts would be appreciated

 

[porkpie324]

I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie

 

[emma]

I bought late December @ .68 and have endured the ups and downs but finally am happy to see the current upwards movement - notes from last weekend (looking at the weekly chart) registered a rejection of the week's lows indicating that the coming week could see perhaps see higher prices - so far so good. Having said that - would someone with greater technical skills like to analyze the current situation?

No, I don't want advice - I'd just like to see how other people go about it.

 

[Kipp]

I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie

Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.

One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).

But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.

 

[michael_selway]

Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.

One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).

But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.

For some reason it has such low PE(forward), and also pays dividends?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.4 12.2 19.8 9.6
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 12.2 6.4 16.8%
Year Ending 30-06-07 19.8 3.9 62.3%

 

[Kipp]

Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04). So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!! Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).

Anyhow, just my thoughts. Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.

 

[michael_selway]

Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04). So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!! Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).

Anyhow, just my thoughts. Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.

Hi Kipp

yeah that forecast 2008 EPS of 0.09 is a huge drop from 2007, probably for the reason u have stated. Also maybe nickel prices will cool off by then?

thx

MS

 

[Kipp]

Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled

 

[Kipp]

Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled

Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)

Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has increased to $0.81 per share (previously $0.73/share) due to
higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). Every 10% change in
our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."•

Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.

 

[michael_selway]

Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)

Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has increased to $0.81 per share (previously $0.73/share) due to
higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). Every 10% change in
our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."•

Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.

The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies

 

[Kipp]

The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies

Yep, but if we all knew the futures for Gold, Nickel, and Zinc for the next 6-12months it wouldn't make investing that much of a challenge, would it?
but at least Nickel is a component of stainless steel for which the Chinese appetitte knows no end. Plus batteries ni-cd and NMH, but I don;t really know which of these is the primary driver for Ni price and it's use (hell, batteries prob comprise 0.2% of all Ni used for all I know).

And this is something else which has just occured to me... are MCR (and all comps for that matter) obligated to put ALL brokers reports on their website? Or do they just pick and chose the more favourable brokers reports? [ignoring the SELL recommendations?]