Downgrade a week ago and the SP now sitting around 38 cents. It's actually quite a good detailed update, but the lines which caught my attention (and many others) was this:
- The full year impact of these challenges [cost increases] is expected to decrease MBH’s FY22 trading EBITDA by $4.2m, of which the underperforming dairy assets account for approx. $2.8m
- Price increases have been implemented across e-commerce and retail grocery to offset the cost increases with the full benefits to be realised in FY23
That leaves them with a projected EBITDA of around 10 million for the year - so a big cost increase - on a market cap of around $130 million and EV probably just above $100 million. Certainly not cheap but not too overvalued either. Cost increases are hitting everyone so this downgrade was expected and is probably indicative of what we'll be seeing from others on the ASX shortly (hence why I noted several months ago I don't like to hold shares though inflation).
MBH will surely be able to pass All all the increased costs along to the consumer by the start of FY2023, but I could also see a hit to demand across the whole sector as costs on everything go up and wages stay about the same. Suppose we'll see in a few months when the EOFY report comes out how much of a hit sales took (if at all) in the final month or two of the year but if sales are good and the consumer has absorbed the costs then 38 cents looks pretty appealing.