Marketing Timing Investing

[robertbanking]

Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.

I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.

Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.

 

[divs4ever]

Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.

I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.

Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.

now market-timing is nice if your a longer term investor ( ESSENTIAL if a short-term trader )

but if buying long(er ) term and doing that research , isn't WHICH stock to buy the most important bit , once you have a target stock what is a 'comfortable price ' ( for you )

take my adventure into FMG my first parcel was bought last year ( before the div. was declared ) @ $19.90 ( from memory ) and i was ( and am still ) quite happy with that,
FMG declared a $2 ( plus )div. now AFTER that the FMG has dipped several times since , i have double-checked the company ( it still hasn't gone toxic ) so i have bought two parcels more a fair bit cheaper than $19.90 ( actually below $17.70 , so missing out on the div. for those was no biggie )

now sure i could have bought more shares cheaper , and i could have beaten myself up for not waiting longer , but i got the first parcel 'at a fair price ' ( by my calculations ) and took two opportunities to add more cheaper

was that a bad decision , or should i still be waiting , say at $12.50 to buy my first parcel ( only you can answer that for yourself )

but i think the most important bit is to find those good companies FIRST and then decide the maximum price you will pay for those shares

( any price less is a nice bonus , IMO )

if buying dips is important to you learning about Elliott Waves and market cycles might be helpful

i just wake up with a price in my head ( say BHP for $25 ) if the market price is MUCH higher i shrug and move on ( if it was say $27 , i would enter a bid in the market and see if i get a bite , i might have to wait months , but i can be patient )

cheers

 

[divs4ever]

an extra thought on this , WATCH the whole sector of the company you are interested in say the major banks ( or iron miners ) there is a tendency for than whole niche to move lower ( almost ) together ,

say WBC puts out an release about stressed mortgages , there is a trend that most of the banking sector will go lower , on that news , so YOUR target ( say NAB ) comes close to a price you are willing to pay

good luck

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for responding divs4ever that is very kind of you, you are an amazing person. I very much appreciate your response.

I absolutely agree with you doing the research and selecting which stock to buy is the most important. Its very interesting to hear how you bought FMG over a period of time and in tranches, i believe that is a very clever strategy. I just feel although i select some good stocks, i could have got in at better prices to make a larger profit margin and i suppose its about getting better at assessing a fair value and finding the right time to buy. However i agree with you, its good not to be over obsessive like you say waiting for $12.50 to buy your first parcel of FMG as you might miss the longer term trends and movements in share price.

I very much appreciate your response it has given me alot to think about. Thank you very much for your support. Hope you have a pleasant day.

 

[divs4ever]

buying the tranches is more about controlling 'the fear' of paying too much for a stock

now if you can find the briefings CDM ( a LIC that i hold ) often does precisely the opposite with the same stock ( when we buy/sell the same stock , they buy the rally in tranches and sell SOME early at the sign of a fair dip ) now sure they might be using trailing stops for this ( i don't use stops )

in March 2020 they sold the majority of the portfolio in weeks ( ready to buy the recovery ) whereas i already had some cash reserves and was CAUTIOUSLY buying in that drop all the way through October 2020

sometimes i have to wait years for the target price ( three years for BPT ) and sometimes missing out is a blessing in disguise , like missing MLT , MLT looked rather attractive ( at the right price ) but converted into SOL not so interesting ( i bought my SOL in 2011 , under $14 )

my main aim is div. income ( for the rest of my life ) i expect inflation to eat the heart out of my portfolio $value ( a million bucks in 2022 isn't a quarter as impressive as in 1992 so by 2030 a million might only buy a mid-level car ) but that div. income ( helped by a bit of DRP , MIGHT do enough )

 

[Value Collector]

Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.

I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.

Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.

I just buy the stock when the price looks good compared to my estimates of its future earning power, what the share market does the next day or week is random, so trying to time the market is futile in my opinion.

50% of the time it will go up after you bought and 50% of the time it will go down, but as long as you are correct in your estimates of its future earning power then you can ignore the market movements in the short term and know that over time is dividends and share price growth will be well worth the price you paid.

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for responding divs4ever i truly appreciate your reply very much.

Amazing and you are a true Warren Buffett buying when others are fearful and a real amazing investor. Interesting how you bought all the way through from March 2020 to October 2020 that is wonderful. I appreciate you sharing this information.

I would be very worried haha if in 2030 a million bucks only bought a mid-level car but who knows maybe you are right. If inflation carries on as it is a million bucks will only buy a latte and a blueberry muffin in the coffee shop in 2030. Lets hope that does not happen though.

Thanks very much for sharing your insights you have been a star and more than helpful. Thanks again and hope you have a pleasant day.

 

[divs4ever]

well China is annoyed with half the world , has a tight grip on SOME battery technology and REE useful for high quality magnets , add in inflation over 5 years and an accelerated push to EVs , so sadly not as impossible as i would hope it to be

the reverse possibility is the global economy implodes so badly only a few can afford any car at all ( because most need all their income for food and shelter )

and that buying was CAUTIOUSLY ( keeping some investing cash in reserve )

and in the suburb i grew up in , a million bucks only buys a tidy home ( maybe a 3 bedroom 'workers cottage ' 60 year old ones at that ) ( only 10 kilometres from the city centre and NOTHING like a McMansions

and don't worry about the ( investing ) fear , it keeps me from buying big ( whether the time was right to or not ) so far it is a useful partner to greed

but you are going have to tweak all that to best suit YOU

 

[Knobby22]

Bottom in August?

 

[peter2]

I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens. LOL

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens.

Or when the day comes and there are no discussions in the Stock threads on the forum, during ASX opening hours.

 

[divs4ever]

I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens. LOL

oh ye of boundless optimism !!


an easy 5000 points of potential downside after that happens