Market Crash 2025

Logique2 said:

Causing chaos Garpal?
$55 Billion (so far) in US budget savings.
That will cause a recession alright..

"..By: CHARLIE SPIERING, SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER, WASHINGTON, DC

REVEALED: Total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE

DOGE has saved American taxpayers a staggering amount of money as Elon Musk and his nerd army rip through government spending.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Published: 04:49 AEDT, 19 February 2025 | Updated: 08:13 AEDT, 19 February 2025
REVEALED: The eye-popping total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE
..Elon Musk's DOGE revealed Tuesday that President Donald Trump has saved taxpayers a staggering $55 billion in less than a month..."

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Removing stimulus from the economy to the tune of $55 billion can cause a recession.
Obviously, there are ways to counteract this.

paying interest on unsustainable debt is dead money. Rock v Hard Place

Dona Ferentes said:

paying interest on unsustainable debt is dead money. Rock v Hard Place

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The debt has to increase greatly anyway due to the tax cuts.

55 billion will barely touch the surface of a debit in the trillions.

Knobby22 said:

The debt has to increase greatly anyway due to the tax cuts.

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that would depend on where are how big the cuts are

i am assuming ( personal ) FEDERAL income tax will be reduced OR a set rebate per individual tax-payer but that would be off-set by tariffs ( and sales taxes boosted by additional consumer spending )

the big unknown ( for me ) is will the investors reduce parking money in short-term bills and start investing in factories and infrastructure ( that the US NEEDS to be more self-reliant and reduce the trade deficit )

IF Trump can reduce the INCREASE of debt in his first year of this term , that would be a great starting point , give time for other efficiencies to trickle in .

i reckon Trump's goals ( if they are reached ) will take at least 8 years ( and a Vance Government to follow Trump's plan )

TimeISmoney said:

55 billion will barely touch the surface of a debit in the trillions.

View attachment 193895

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LOL

they should have stuck to British billions , trillions etc

the old British system was a billion equaled one MILLION millions , a trillion was one BILLION ( English ) billions

sure the planet would have been awash with zeroes but there would have been less red-faces ( when deep in debt )

modern math the joke has come back to bite

Logique2 said:

Causing chaos Garpal?
$55 Billion (so far) in US budget savings.
That will cause a recession alright..

"..By: CHARLIE SPIERING, SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER, WASHINGTON, DC

REVEALED: Total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE

DOGE has saved American taxpayers a staggering amount of money as Elon Musk and his nerd army rip through government spending.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Published: 04:49 AEDT, 19 February 2025 | Updated: 08:13 AEDT, 19 February 2025
REVEALED: The eye-popping total estimated taxpayer savings after one month of DOGE
..Elon Musk's DOGE revealed Tuesday that President Donald Trump has saved taxpayers a staggering $55 billion in less than a month..."

Click to expand...

Thanks @Logique2 for the input from Charlie Spiering a political not a financial reporter from a t1ts and arse publication The Daily Mail quoting verbatim what Elon Musk states are the savings which he and his offsider Big Balls have achieved via DoGE in reining in waste is the US Federal bureaucracy.

Elon's opinion is important but I doubt the veracity of his claims. I am in support btw of eliminating waste in bureaucracy.

There are a number of points made in the financial press over the weekend worth bearing in mind despite Charlie's alcohol fueled headline.

• Wholesale sackings decrease the number of consumers in society as per the formula for GDP , Y = C + I +G + NX. These sacked bureaucrats aka workers will spend less in their communities. The decrease in C is presently much larger than G.
• Walmart, a good indicator of spending has issued a warning late last week, consumers are not happy, they are spending less.
• The markets are becoming quite nervous about DoGE. There is a move to bonds and cash.

It is you will agree too early to make a call on the long term effect of DoGE. Good luck to them, I'll move my assets about in relation to what's happening and what I believe will happen. I'll leave Charlie to the next great headline.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

Thanks @Logique2 for the input from Charlie Spiering a political not a financial reporter from a t1ts and arse publication The Daily Mail quoting verbatim what Elon Musk states are the savings which he and his offsider Big Balls have achieved via DoGE in reining in waste is the US Federal bureaucracy.

Elon's opinion is important but I doubt the veracity of his claims. I am in support btw of eliminating waste in bureaucracy.

There are a number of points made in the financial press over the weekend worth bearing in mind despite Charlie's alcohol fueled headline.

• Wholesale sackings decrease the number of consumers in society as per the formula for GDP , Y = C + I +G + NX. These sacked bureaucrats aka workers will spend less in their communities. The decrease in C is presently much larger than G.
• Walmart, a good indicator of spending has issued a warning late last week, consumers are not happy, they are spending less.
• The markets are becoming quite nervous about DoGE. There is a move to bonds and cash.

It is you will agree too early to make a call on the long term effect of DoGE. Good luck to them, I'll move my assets about in relation to what's happening and what I believe will happen. I'll leave Charlie to the next great headline.

gg

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one easy prediction ... there will be PAIN early , the big unknown is will there be actual benefit later on

if the waste ( and corruption ) is cut will DC become a ghost town as the lobbyists can't make a living ( in the US ) , ditto for the mainstream media/press , and MAYBE that is a good thing , whack in some extra computer servers , so data entry boffins and get real data to base good decisions on

the problem has always been AFTER the purge/cull ... how do you rebuild and repair ( history seems to predict ... badly )

and the market SHOULD be nervous ( even absolutely terrified ) you have huge bubbles , huge deceptions AND huge debt ( even inside some 'essential companies ' )

i think reality will BITE ( and they will be lucky if only a leg is gone )

but so far all i hear is cans ( of worms ) being kicked

divs4ever said:

one easy prediction ... there will be PAIN early , the big unknown is will there be actual benefit later on

if the waste ( and corruption ) is cut will DC become a ghost town as the lobbyists can't make a living ( in the US ) , ditto for the mainstream media/press , and MAYBE that is a good thing , whack in some extra computer servers , so data entry boffins and get real data to base good decisions on

the problem has always been AFTER the purge/cull ... how do you rebuild and repair ( history seems to predict ... badly )

and the market SHOULD be nervous ( even absolutely terrified ) you have huge bubbles , huge deceptions AND huge debt ( even inside some 'essential companies ' )

i think reality will BITE ( and they will be lucky if only a leg is gone )

but so far all i hear is cans ( of worms ) being kicked

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Spot on Divs, but the amount of bloatware in the U.S would be huge.
The system there seems to be ripe for exploitation, all the different States (50) and counties (3,144), the duplication and jobs for the boys must be mind boggling.
The U.S has had a dream run since WW2, this must be the first time anyone has taken out the garbage and cleared out the shed.

divs4ever said:

one easy prediction ... there will be PAIN early , the big unknown is will there be actual benefit later on

if the waste ( and corruption ) is cut will DC become a ghost town as the lobbyists can't make a living ( in the US ) , ditto for the mainstream media/press , and MAYBE that is a good thing , whack in some extra computer servers , so data entry boffins and get real data to base good decisions on

the problem has always been AFTER the purge/cull ... how do you rebuild and repair ( history seems to predict ... badly )

and the market SHOULD be nervous ( even absolutely terrified ) you have huge bubbles , huge deceptions AND huge debt ( even inside some 'essential companies ' )

i think reality will BITE ( and they will be lucky if only a leg is gone )

but so far all i hear is cans ( of worms ) being kicked

Click to expand...

I'd say some of the cost cutting will turn around and bite them in the long term, things like education and health care that affect communities at large.

Even with things like cutting back on EPA spending, big cities emit many toxic fumes that cause health issues in the long run, and people having time out at work from an increase in asthma, skin and eye irritants, they are all going to affect production rates.

TimeISmoney said:

I'd say some of the cost cutting will turn around and bite them in the long term, things like education and health care that affect communities at large.

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MAYBE !

my opinion is education and health-care ( even in Australia has been captured )

sure there are glimpses of what both SHOULD be , but the general trend is towards indoctrination rather than education , i first spotted that when i moved to Grade 11 at high school ( more than 50 years back ) they switched to a US based curriculum from the previous one , and it only took two brief glimpses of the Physics text book to realize i had learned all that last year ( between Science B and Math ) DESPITE my large amount of truancy in the previous 3 years .. sure the numbers in the questions were larger , but i had a log table book for that ( calculators weren't allowed in exams back then )

and health-care well my high school biology study just ridicules a LOT of modern medicine and makes me question the rest , they just flip-flop into/out of love of the next 'wonder drug

in fact despite having a heart condition ( and NO diabetes ) i am on a failed diabetes drug .. which at full price costs $61.25 for 30 tabs ( one a day ) ( AND limits the amount of aspirin i can take )

SIXTY-ONE DOLLARS for a dud drug , c'mon man ! ( it does not cure my heart problem it just helps the other six drugs ... including aspirin , work or so they claim )

let's see what RFK jr ( a LAWYER ) can sniff out in malfeasance in health-care , from memory he started out ( in health research ) by suing a city for lead in the town water supply ( and not fixing the problem ) and now has the current reputation of REAL investigation

MAYBE , this is the change health and education need

and sure the job-culling will hurt certain metrics , BUT if the literacy rates and math skills in US schools improve !! ( from the current crazy low levels ) , surely that is a good thing ( unless you have a high-flying job in BS ( OOPS in mean finance )

$55Billion USD, saved (so far).

But these are not savings at all, says Knobby22, it's just removing:
'..stimulus from the economy to the tune of $55 billion..'

Stimulus like (my bolds):
At the top of the list was a $1.5 million program slated to "advance diversity, equity and inclusion in Serbia's workplaces, and business communities" and a $70,000 program for a "DEI musical" in Ireland.

Initiatives that supported LGBTQI programs were also flagged as an inappropriate use of taxpayer funds,
including $47,000 for a "transgender opera" in Colombia, $32,000 for a "transgender comic book" in Peru , and $2 million for sex changes and "LGBT activism" in Guatemala.

And Garpal,
with great respect always, I'll watch the US SPX to determine 'nervous'.

Garpal Gumnut said:

The chances of a market crash in 2025 have increased since Trump has been inaugurated. He is moving too fast on reforms and deals. It is starting to cause chaos. The NASDAQ particularly the SOX are way overvalued. It will happen overnight.

When?

Who knows.

gg

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An alternative big picture view of Trump and where he is going from George Friedman and Ed D'Agostino

Transcript -

ttrader1 said:

An alternative big picture view of Trump and where he is going from George Friedman and Ed D'Agostino

Transcript -

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/download/global-macro-update-transcript-george-friedman-feb-21-2025

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Exactly.