Market Bottom?

[sammy84]

Looking on from the events 2 weeks ago what are people's opinions on whether or not we have seen the market bottom?

It seems that the general sentiment on this forum and amongst analysts alike is now one of cautiously re-entering the market rather than sitting on the sidelines?

We have seen the capitulation, high volaitlity, etc that all encompass are bottom.

So what are forumers doing at the moment, have those who sat out started to dip their toes in the water again or am I wrong about the increased confidence?

 

[mantronic]

Lehman swaps settling ok supposedly but FTSE down 4% as I type. Give it another month if not 6.

 

[skyQuake]

not even close... Have a look at a Capitulation thread somewhere around here. Quite a bit of good stuff there.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Looking on from the events 2 weeks ago what are people's opinions on whether or not we have seen the market bottom?

It seems that the general sentiment on this forum and amongst analysts alike is now one of cautiously re-entering the market rather than sitting on the sidelines?

We have seen the capitulation, high volaitlity, etc that all encompass are bottom.

So what are forumers doing at the moment, have those who sat out started to dip their toes in the water again or am I wrong about the increased confidence?

Mate its going to be bad.

Bodies leaping from towers.

A bad scene.

But some tremendous opportunities.

gg

 

[sammy84]

Lehman swaps settling ok supposedly but FTSE down 4% as I type. Give it another month if not 6.

I am still expecting highly volatile trading, but nothing like the blood bath that occured 2 weeks ago

Mate its going to be bad.

Bodies leaping from towers.

A bad scene.

But some tremendous opportunities.

gg

Maybe I was wrong about sensing positive sentiment being sensed on this forum

 

[tasmart]

So what are forumers doing at the moment, have those who sat out started to dip their toes in the water again or am I wrong about the increased confidence?

I've been topping up over the last month every couple of weeks in small amounts. ANZ, CBA, BHP, WOW ...... I decided that trying to a pick a bottom is not going to work. Mainly buying in on down days. If we have a total meltdown (seems less likely now) then it really isn't going to matter. On the other hand there is likley to be some move back up a bit in a search for reality. A lot of people (and funds) are currently sitting on cash that will have to go somewhere. Fixed interest is dropping and property is in a long down cycle so the share market likely to become of interest once the panic & fear settle.

However it is likely that this volatility will continue for some time (perhaps through to 2010) so no hurry! I'm in for the long term but cashed up last year (wish it was more) and rebalanced a bit on the way down - so enjoying the opportunities! The hard bit is holding back!

 

[GreatPig]

Mate its going to be bad.

Heh... reminds me of that old beer ad, where one guy's sick in the outback and the flying doctor tells his mate (over the radio) that he needs something cold or it will get really bad. When he looks in the fridge, there's just one beer there, so he goes back to the sick guy and says...

GP

 

[saiter]

GOLD (the stock) has gone down from $130 to ~$105 today. Gold (the metal) is down. The XAO is down. Where is everyone's money going?

IMO either everyone is sitting on cash or they've stuck it in their bank accounts thanks to this deposit guarantee plan. Everyone is still waiting for calm I guess.

 

[sammy84]

The market seems to be rebounding on 3940-50 mark today. This would be indicative of a bottom, as the point needs to be tested a few times. However I dont see this point of resistance holding if we get another shocking leading from Amercia, and that would be it for the bottom theory at the moment

 

[nomore4s]

Even if this area is some sort of a bottom, I would think it would be retested at some time in the near future. We must be getting close to some sort of a rally shortly though.

With all the problems around atm I just cannot see this being the bottom, we haven't seen this start to effect earnings or d/ends yet. What about if/when unemployment starts to kick in?

It appears alot of people seem to think we are going to just rebound off the bottom and shoot straight higher, with all the carnage we've seen we're going to have to form some sort of a base before we can enter another decent bull phase.

 

[nunthewiser]

The market seems to be rebounding on 3940-50 mark today. This would be indicative of a bottom, as the point needs to be tested a few times. However I dont see this point of resistance holding if we get another shocking leading from Amercia, and that would be it for the bottom theory at the moment

unemployment data out tonight .......... dodgy turf we standing in now

 

[johenmo]

It's gonna be like a nudist colony... we'll see a lot of bottoms! And as I read on ASF, if you try to pick bottoms, you'll get a dirty finger.


Seriously, it's all conjecture. Plenty will try and (precious) few will succeed. Most will sit and wait. Can't see it's a bottom yet.

 

[Awesomandy]

The market seems to be rebounding on 3940-50 mark today. This would be indicative of a bottom, as the point needs to be tested a few times. However I dont see this point of resistance holding if we get another shocking leading from Amercia, and that would be it for the bottom theory at the moment

This is the 3rd time we've been bouncing around at ~3950 (+/- a bit) in the past couple of weeks, so, to me, this is a bottom. Well, for the time being, at least. I think we are range-bound for now, or perhaps we may see a pennant forming as well, at which time we'll see a break. I wouldn't dare say which side though, if this happens. Gut feeling says down, but I might as well just put all of my money on black at the casino.

 

[korrupt_1]

unemployment data out tonight .......... dodgy turf we standing in now

yep... came out worse than forecasted... yet the DJ rallied briefly on the annoucement... the USD even rallied a bit too... what gives?

fundaMENTAL trading is completely dodgy the last few weeks...

 

[sammy84]

fundaMENTAL trading is completely dodgy the last few weeks...

Its time like now I wish I had a degree in psychology.