Hi Craft,
Best of the luck with the thread. I will sit on the naughty step for a while.
I do also and take the typed word far too literally at times. It makes me realise how much facial expression, tone of voice of etc contribute to clear communication.[Obviously I have difficulties seeing subtleties in a forum environment]
Lets have a look at interest securities, bonds, hybrids, floating rate notes and convertible shares. I find these don't really get talked about all that much. They form a major part of my portfolio and are mostly long term investments.
...
Note: I hold AGKHA and SVWPA and I am just using them as an example. I have also put in for the Westpac Capital Notes IPO which have not yet been allocated.
I think there is an argument to be made here from someone smarter then myself, about whether or not you are being appropriately compensated for the risk you are taking on with hybrids etc. I.e a couple of percentage points at best above TD's and even online savers.
Now interest rates are at all time lows, what do you think will happen when rates start moving up? All those Securities pay a spread of interest on top of the 90 or 180 BBSW rate. When the RBA starts raising interest rates the BBSW rates will move upwards also. If the BBSW rates move up to say 5% which is pretty normal then that 6% becomes 8% and that 7% becomes 9% and that 9% becomes 11%. This is why I am getting into these securities now because as sure as night follows day interest rates will start going up in the future.
Very good point Bill, thanks for highlighting this...A true Contrarian play, Interest rate linked security's in a low and falling interest rate environment.
Hi,
I would like to be a long term investor.
I am quite novice in share trading and would like to know what should the strategy, for my current situation. I have bought a few stocks. Some have risen (+30%) in value and some have fallen (-5/10%), I am still +10% (overall) ahead. I am going to be offloading the one of the -10% performing stock as it has been stagnant for over a year and I want to realise losses and get my capital out. There are couple of stocks that are +45% and +50% green! I am not sure, when should one exit the position? or sell in such circumstances (running +45% green)?
As I am looking at longer term, should I pile up on the outperforming stocks? or should I sell some of the outperforming stock?
Sounds like value-investing to me! However, our view of winners and losers must be different.Alternatively, you could investigate the simple strategy of trend following:
Let your winners run and cut your losses quickly.
Good luck.
There was a recent Warren Buffett article out, which I thoroughly enjoyed, because it broke his returns down into a fairly easily replicable ruleset, which is common with the "academic" definition of value investing plus a few twists. Mainly:
* Value (as measured by P/B)
* Low Beta
* High Quality (as measured by earnings volatility, etc)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57524029/how-warren-buffett-beats-the-market/
What I would suggest to synthetically replicat this idea is to run 4 portfolios, each started at a different Q, i.e. P1 starts at Q1, P2 at Q2, P3 at Q3 and P4 at Q4. Then you rebalance each portfolio once a year to the following universe:
* Define the top 25% of value stocks
* Of those value stocks define the top 25% with lowest beta and lowest realised volatility
* Of those value low beta stocks define the top 25% with the highest quality
This is your portfolio for the next year. Apply leverage as desired. You can replicate the Buffett float by shorting corporate bonds if desired.
One important thing to note is there was low/no momentum factor explaining his returns, so stay away from stocks making highs if you want a "Buffett" style portfolio.
Keep in mind, the article points out that Buffetts major difference from other large funds was his reputation, so even in the face of a 44% drawdown, he did not suffer many redemptions and certainly no margin calls. I think that is the most important lesson. Do not invest in passive equities if you can't handle a 40-60% drawdown. You must be a "strong hand" (with a strong stomach) to successfully execute this kind of strategy. This also means your natural leverage limit is probably somewhat less than 2:1 and more like 1.5:1 at absolute max.
Here is another article that addresses the same topic, lots of pretty charts included:
http://gestaltu.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/track-records-are-rubbish-or-why.html
Recently a friend and myself were playing around with plotting operations in R.
I was having a great time plotting the monthly return histogram for various stocks, funds, ETFs, etc.
We decided to plot the monthly return profile for Berkshire Hathaway back to 1990.
I was very very surprised to see the distribution of returns, because to me it looked exactly like a traders histogram, that is "cut your losers and let your winners run" skew.
Except, obviously Buffett isn't running stoploss. I am not saying it's easy to replicate this return profile, but at the same time it goes to show you don't necessarily need to hold "winners" (in the momentum sense of the word) to end up with a return profile like this. The proof is that there is 0 explanatory power of momentum in Buffetts portfolio going over many years. It seems that buying quality, low beta assets will (over the long term) provide a natural cut your losers hold your winners type strategy.
View attachment 51286
Just wanted to share the Giverny Capital annual letter to investors, which in fact marks their 20th anniversary of running their portfolio.
It raises some pertinent points about long-term investing and why some are successful and why many others are not as successful as they like.
Giverny Capital is a Canadian firm that (judging by their record) seems to be very successful over the last 20 years using a long-term approach.
The letter can be found here.
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