tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
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Actually as I said its my background in mathmatics that makes it impossible for me to have any confidence in it. Its like asking a biologist to suscribe to creation.
I can think of many examples where that exact strategy with sensibly chosen shares would have led to enormous wealth creation. It does take time and inactivity, and of course it requires careful selection of great companies.
I see the usual 2 bob forum experts have lined up to bash you and your long term stock selection strategy up.
Safe to say the mind set to implement such a strategy is different to theirs. No use arguing the toss - Just smile and wave.
Hold as long as you wish just dont hold it lower than your buy point!
Love it!
So forget risk mitigation "Pick the Right stock and she'll be right mate"
Babcock and Brown
ABC learning
HIH
Lihir Gold.
Blah blah---ohh Wrong stock selection?
Ring a bell-----
Hold as long as you wish just dont hold it lower than your buy point!
But hey do what you like---
Love it!
So forget risk mitigation "Pick the Right stock and she'll be right mate"
Babcock and Brown
ABC learning
HIH
Lihir Gold.
Blah blah---ohh Wrong stock selection?
Ring a bell-----
Hold as long as you wish just dont hold it lower than your buy point!
But hey do what you like---
The strategy is truly scalable and best of all requires next to no screen time, so you can sit on the beach instead of in front of a screen.
I just think with a little effort you can do it much better.
By the way at the height of those stocks I offered up as examples
certaintly werent seen as dogs then!
NCM currently is seen by some as the bargain of the century ----is it?
tech, one thing I've been curious about recently is why you seem to be OK with the idea of buying a cashflow positive investment property and holding for the long term, but you're also very against the idea of buying a cashflow positive business and holding for the long term?
Not having a go, just kind of curious about where the difference lies for you, because when it comes to property you are much more FA oriented, never have I seen you post a chart of real housing returns and the associated wave count.
The one thing I've struggled with is understanding why some people I know buy a stock while it is falling (because it is cheap/represents value). Then being happy that it is falling because they can buy more.
why not maximize the timing of entry? Wait for bottoming out behavior and then you give yourself the best chance of buying at the best price without missing the opportunity. The fundamental approach may be great but why not combine is with the technical to improve entry (and exit).
Because fundamental investors believe there is a disconnect between price and value. If they are right they should only be disappointing when value drops. When Prices drop and values either stay steady or rise this could be considered positive so long as they weren't planning on liquidating any time soon and have extra capital available - planning/needing to sell in the short/medium term regardless of future valuation and price changes doesn't fit well with fundamental investing it's a recipe for failure really. In the long run if you can stick to your guns and so long as you are better than average at guessing value it all works out when combined with margin of safety (buying below your valuation to skew returns/probabilities in your favour) and sensible allocation strategies (reducing the risk of being wiped out by statistically unlikely events).
You make it sound like bottoming out behavior is obvious yet studies tend to show that traders on average lose LOTS of money so it can't really be that easy at least not for most people. Anecdotally I witness thousands of accounts where this is also true. None of that makes it impossible but clearly you need something that sets you out from the pack along with sound plans for mitigating risks etc just like fundamental investing.
As for combining both strategies.. well if you can come up with an overall plan that works this way then good for you. Personally I don't entirely ignore charts in my fundamental investing, just 99%: I do a small amount of trading too btw and the rules I trade by are very different and in some ways opposite to my fundamental investing rules - that doesn't make either of them wrong it depends on how they fit within the overall investment plan. Sometimes you're required to give up a little to gain a lot. I would love to see you sit in front of Buffet and tell him there's these blatant holes in his strategy.
The one thing I've struggled with is understanding why some people I know buy a stock while it is falling (because it is cheap/represents value). Then being happy that it is falling because they can buy more.
I've always thought that its great to identify these great value opportunities but why not maximize the timing of entry? Wait for bottoming out behavior and then you give yourself the best chance of buying at the best price without missing the opportunity.
The fundamental approach may be great but why not combine is with the technical to improve entry (and exit).
PurpleChips uses a visual approach to illustrate clearly where investment opportunities exist. Using the research method, investors will learn to identify exceptional companies with a quick visual inspection of certain factors in their earnings history. PurpleChips gives the average investor the tools to make decisions and focuses on quality, low-risk stocks.
He was saying that if the reasons for him investing in the first place change, then something has gone wrong and he'll exit, he doesn't hold onto losers in the "value" sense. I think this is important for new investors to know, you don't need to hand on and hope...
I think if you're not getting out when things change (and doing it fast!) then you're not really investing just hoping. And there's always plenty of hope going around! People seem to get married to positions, where admitting they're wrong seems to hurt more than the real money they're losing. The psychology of it is something I'm only now starting to appreciate.
True (large) pricing errors (based on information in the market) for large, well researched, well run, companies must be few and far between.
My view is that the theme, the macro, is more important. It will tell you when to get in, and when to get out.
Any thoughts?
Most long term investors that I have studied actually suggest the opposite view - ignore the macro and just concentrate on buying quality companies.
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