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LNC - Linc Energy

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From page 4 of analyst report dated 4/11/10
"Several important milestones could act as near-term catalysts over the next 18 months.
The following milestones could act as catalysts for Linc shares.
Click to expand...

Hi folks and good to be back. I've had a nice little break.

That was a very interesting titbit from Mickel today - the Madison report dated 4th Nov 2010. (thank you..) I just finished reading it and was very impressed with it's depth and breadth (except it completely missed the AFC fuel cell project). It certainly wanted to make me go out and buy more shares.

And of course lot's of investors did. In fact in Nov/Dec just after the report was published LINC went into a vertical rise. $2.00 to $3.00 in barely 6 weeks. I checked back over this thread and noted just how delighted we all were with the sudden market discovery of LINC's value and trying to guess at how the penny had dropped.

But the Madison report was never mentioned. Somehow between all of us and any LINC reporting this very positive analysis was overlooked - or perhaps not publicly available ? I'm curious about this situation because in a sense I can now see why LINC jumped so decisively in Nov/Dec and wondering why it was kept quiet. Any information ?
 

Bas, I was checking the Analyst Report section of LNC's website every week since early last December and that report was only posted on the LNC website within a few days of when I mentioned it on this thread on 19th Jan (post 1704). I don't know why they withheld it as it is good news.

I had heard that there were more firms starting analyst coverage and I believe there will be more different ones yet to come. I also understand WHEN LNC enters the top 100 ASX stocks more fund managers and brokers will cover it.
 
Further to my last post, another report by Madison Williams is now on the LNC website-
http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Madison Williams-Top Picks 2011 - Energy-010711.pdf

it highlights their "Top Picks for 2011" and of course includes LNC. It also has a tech analysis of LNC.

"We expect 2011 to be a transformational year for Linc Energy as the company progresses in its evolution from a small company in Australia to a diversified energy company with a global footprint. This transformation will include a number of exciting near-term catalysts. Linc is currently in discussions to sell its Emerald coal asset,which we believe could fetch approximately A$500mn. In the Powder River Basin, where Linc is implementing its initial Enhanced Oil Recovery operations, the company expects to have permitting finished by the end of Q1 and first gas production by the middle of the year. Linc anticipates first oil production by the end of 2011. On the resource value creation front, the company continues to prove up its sizeable coal and oil/gas asset base, drilling wells in Alaska, Arkaringa, and its Northern leases in Queensland over the course of the year. Finally,we expect Linc to make progress on its 5,000-bpd modular gas-to-liquids concept in 2011, with potential supply chain contracts by the second half of the year."

and-

"A daily chart going back to September 2008 shows prices clearly coming out of a long-term base. Massive volume accumulation in July/August of this year clearly indicates that a bottom has been seen, and subsequently the shares have cleared and found support above an important Fibonacci level, A$2.65 (first green line), which represents a 38.2% retracement of the entire ’08 to ’10 range. While there is a near-term risk of pullback below that level given recent global equity action, strong support lies just below off the November highs, around A$2.55, and investors should buy aggressively any test of that level. Ultimately, prices will continue higher, with momentum taking prices to the 61.8% retracement level (second green line), A$3.70."
 
Street talk column in afr is saying that Linc is four of five weeks from signing a deal to sell its Teresa coal mine to an Asian buyer for about $500,000,000.00
 
Brian Acheson said:
Street talk column in afr is saying that Linc is four of five weeks from signing a deal to sell its Teresa coal mine to an Asian buyer for about $500,000,000.00
Click to expand...

The Street Talk column also said the sale will include a royalty.

LNC currently up $0.11 at $2.79 after reaching a high today of $2.86
 
mattryanshares said:
Wheres the link??
Click to expand...

couldnt find a link but found this on another forum, not sure about the credibility of street talk, but since they mentioned "asian interest" and "narrowed the list", sounds like a bit more than someones hunch..



SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU) is close to signing a deal to sell its
Teresa coal project in Queensland state to unspecified Asian interests for about A$500
million, according to an unsourced report in the Street Talk column in Wednesday's
Australian Financial Review.
The report said Linc has been running a process for some months and has narrowed the
list of bidders to a handful. It said Linc is four to five weeks away from selling the
project.

Newspaper website: http://www.afr.com

-By Sydney bureau; 61-2-8272-4680 ; djnews.sydney@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important
business and market news, analysis and commentary:
http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=4Z6aNAis+5jBjf70lcg9Gw==. You can use this
link on the day this article is published and the following day.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 08, 2011 16:03 ET (21:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Wednesday 09 February 2011 08:03:00.000 AEST
 
Announcement on LEA#1 gas well- http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110210/pdf/01149767.pdf

"-Analysis of LEA #1 has confirmed three significant sand formation intervals that appear to be gas charged
- All LEA #1 gas samples shown to contain 99% to 100% purity of dry natural gas"

goes on to explain with that purity it can be piped in directly to the gas pipelines about 1.5 miles away.

"Linc Energy could not complete the planned flow tests over the Christmas break due to adverse weather in Anchorage as freezing conditions can alter the results of the flow tests and significantly increase testing costs. The Company is planning to carry out these tests as soon as the severe cold temperatures of the Alaskan winter have passed. Linc Energy is aiming to have the Flow Test Rig on site in late March 2011.

Peter Bond, CEO of Linc Energy, said, "The recent results received from Schlumberger are extremely positive for LEA #1. It clearly shows that the gas we encountered whilst drilling could have come from a reasonable source of a considerable size, which opens up the commercial potential for not just this well but for the additional leases which Linc Energy holds in this area."

So while it still looks very positive, we won't know for sure until April at the earliest.
 
LNC finished today up 11c at $2.88 after an intra day high of $2.96.

What looks very promising for a further increase tomorrow is that the buy orders (after close) are almost double the sell orders. This has been a rare occurence over the last few months.

Fingers crossed to hit/break $3.00 tomorrow !!! With the rumors of the $500M coal sale about to happen we should pass the $3.00 mark well and truly ($500M cash sale = $1.00 per share approx).

Mr Z what is your view on LNC in the short term ?
 
LNC

It appears to me that Linc has a lot of long term holders, it responds well (relatively predictably) at levels that have seen high volume turn over in the past. On that basis I now look at the $2 area (just below - say 200DMA) as very solid support. Above that we have the 2.24-2.46 area which held on the last test. That is the good... the not so good is that we are running into a big area of what was in some pretty frenzied buying in 2008. Two days stand out and they cover the $2.90 to $5 range! In theory there should be lots of sellers in that area waiting to exit 'with their skin'. The question here becomes can the good news overwhelm the, what looks to be, large number of potential sellers. Personally I'm bullish commodities here and into the US spring where I think 'sell in May' will be the trade du jour! So I think that LNC will do quite well especially if we get some good announcements. I would be surprised if we get through that overhead range and I would be surprised if enough longer term holders where not bailing out to cause a serious correction from up in that range. The $64Q there is where do we correct? (assuming we get there!) My guess at this distance would be the 4.50 area because it coincides with the top of what looks to be a developing channel and the mid point of the second major volume up day @ around the right time of year. That is by no means cast iron but as I said LNC has responded quite well to this sort of volume analysis.... having said that it is a big range, big volume area i.e. MESSY! That makes it much harder to pull out any number that has a high probability of being correct!

Nearer term we have to get through 2.90 and 3.12 in some style, by the looks of it we will have a shorter term correction soonish. 2.90 being the bottom of that big range may prove tough to stay above at first... I'd call 2.45 to 2.60 support. Looking at the DJI, I think it is near term toppy... makes me a little bearish short term... say to the end of Feb.

So yeah... near term a little bearish, mid term bullish, probably very cautious over the US summer with a buy opportunity possibly appearing in the Aug-Oct range.



It is just my best guess looking at the charts today! Don't toast me if it is all wrong and I can and will change my mind regularly as this all unfolds!

DYODD... I hold LNC and have a vested interest, I am not an investment advisor nor does this post constitute advice! Cover thy tail with stops if you trade her! :
 
Good close on LNC S/P to finish up 7c at $2.95 on increased volume of 2.7M, especially on a down market day.

According to the AFR Street Talk column the Teresa sale will be finalised around mid March.

Considering Mr Z's predictions, we may not breach the $3.00 mark until the announcement. Hopefully then we will also pass the $3.16 mark as well.
 
Hi Mickel,

It is best not to consider any T/A predictive as such. In my world it more defines points at which I will make a decision about holding or selling. What I see as critical points! It is more about watching how the stock reacts at those points than predicting which ones it will actually hit. For the purpose of the post I just picked what I thought where the higher probability numbers.

It is good to see volume increase here! We will need some excitement to work our way through this overhead.
 

I acknowledge your clarification,Mr Z. "Predictions" is not the right word.

I was trying to overlay your trading scenarios with the probable sale announcements
to indicate that they may be sufficient to overcome those resistance points of $2.90 and $3.12 in the timeline you mentioned (ie after the end of Feb).

I agree with you that LNC has a lot of long term holders and it will be most interesting to see when/if they start to reduce their holdings as the S/P moves above $3.50.
I hope that many of them will, by then, realise (if they haven't already) that LNC is a "Gusher" and there is plenty of upside to the S/P and that they will retain all/most of their holdings throughout 2011.
If the Teresa sale does eventuate (almost certain) there is a promise of another special dividend in late 2011 which will also assist to keep the S/P up. Given that the share register is tightly controlled and limited (PB has 200m of 500m shares) any sustained demand (particularily by institutions) should see the S/P rocket up.

As I have previously stated, I am a long term holder of LNC and I don't trade it.
 
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