LNC - Linc Energy

I would assume that "standard practice" can only extract so many % of the oil before it saturates. LNC's Co2 flooding presumably is able to extract a higher % of the oil before the rest is still stuck there (until newer tech comes along). So in short, the old ways of doing it isn't always the best.

PVF.

Mickel said:

Thanks Doggie. I'm high on a hill in the northern suburbs and haven't been affected. However I have some friends on the south side of the river who've had their whole house submerged. It is devastating for many people but the community is rallying to assist.
Over 20,000 have registered to assist with the cleanup this weekend. This doesn't include those helping out friends and/or relatives.

I haven't heard much about Chinchilla this week except that parts of the town went under again after Bondy's statement.

Here is a link to a UTube video showing the force of the water in Toowoomba on Monday 10 Jan. There were 2 deaths in Toowoomba that day. The water continued down the Lockyer Valley where there were more than 10 deaths and more than 20 still missing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYUpkPTcqPY&feature=player_embedded

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Glad to hear your personally OK Mickel, and I hope normality returns to your neck of the woods a.s.a.p.
Looking forward to a further, official update from Linc next week.

Fantastic to hear the staff have returned to work at the Brisbane office, and that none of the Linc energy people or their families have lost their lives.
It would now seem appropriate to enlighten us share holders, as to the condition of the demo site at Chinchilla.
Rather poor day for the sp

I see LNC is down again today. I can find any reason except that the whole market is down? I hold and was thinking of getting some more, does anyone know of any reports out there that i cant find?
Drilling in alaska or the likes or any other reason not to grab some more??

Cheers.

mattryanshares said:

I see LNC is down again today. I can find any reason except that the whole market is down? I hold and was thinking of getting some more, does anyone know of any reports out there that i cant find?
Drilling in alaska or the likes or any other reason not to grab some more??

Cheers.

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All silent on the news front mattryanshares, except for the demo plant and staff r AOK at chinchilla.
But just what direction this company takes is well the EOR route for present.
So i am wondering if they can take some coal reserves (maybe keep a coal mine suitable ) , dig the coal sell some and then convert the tailings or lesser quality coal into the syngas / gas to liquids then onto diesel. this could be achieved using their modular plant design on site , or maybe just to offet the mine operating costs.
Another income stream just waitng to happen

So many options and possibilities not yet even considered.

With the big cash backing and the promise of more cash from another coal sale, I'd say that LNC is pretty solid atm fundamentals wise. Just gotta be a little patient for more news I think, these guys have the ambition and drive to make things happen so I'd rather them actually working on producing results then making pretty presentations and graphs explaining what they've done thus far (if that makes any sense at all LOL). Any material changes in LNC's financial status will be announced so I'm not worried that anything has been swept under the carpet. So basically no reason not to buy atm, but by the same token no reason to buy in atm. Up to you but it's not really an obvious call at this point.

PVF.

A relative new analyst report on LNC by US firm Madison Williams dated 4 Nov 2010 is now on the LNC website-
http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/LNCGY - MW Initiation Report.pdf

An extract- "Valuation
Our 12-Month Price Target is $3.50 (upside of approximately 71%); longer term (2 - 4 years) we would not be surprised to see shares in the $5.50+ range. We believe the Linc story is significantly under-valued given its potential cash balance (expected $1 billion by March/April of 2011), underlying resource base (company has 21 million acres in oil/gas/coal leases and tenements around the world) and a huge option value
associated with its technology offerings (UCG, EOR and GTL). For the near-term we are particularly positively disposed towards the company’s EOR strategy that, we believe, could enable the company to realize revenues sooner than expected.

Our 12-month price target is based on Linc’s existing resource base and offers no credit for its technology franchise, which we would argue is quite conservative. Our near-term and long-term value drivers are illustrated below. We do note that our excitement is restrained by the following:

o On the technology front, while the company has made great strides over the past ten years, large-scale commercialization of projects has yet to materialize. While we expect significant news flow over the next 18 months, the market could remain skeptical until certain key milestones are reached.

o On the resource front, while management has demonstrated that it is adept at realizing superior value (Galilee), there are no guarantees that, given volatile global economic conditions, changing environmental regulations and significant long lead time of these projects, comparable values are going to be realized. Also, there are obvious exploratory and development risks in most oil/gas and coal operations.

o We expect Linc Energy to earn positive earnings only in 2013 and beyond. For the near-term, investors looking for positive underlying earnings power will likely be disappointed. Linc is clearly a long-term growth story.

o Linc Energy CEO, Peter Bond (who owns 40.4% of the company), has been the main driver behind the company’s growth story in recent years. This exposes investors to the “key man risk”. As an evolving and rapidly growing energy company (now with a significant global focus) we would like to see more efforts towards strengthening corporate governance, transparency, management succession strategies and an adaptable global organization structure."

And
"Figure 18: Estimated Annual Revenue/EBITDA Contribution from Technology Offerings
............................................... Revenue........EBITDA..........Capex
EOR 5000 b/d project.................... $137 million...$72 million......$170 million
UCG-Power 200 MW South Australia..$98 million....$34 milliion......$200 million
UCG-GTL 5000 b/d project..............$155 million...$64 million.......$450 million"

More good news but I hope the S/P is well above $3.50 by Nov 2011.

I agree with these points of MW's report.

o On the technology front, while the company has made great strides over the past ten years, large-scale commercialization of projects has yet to materialize. While we expect significant news flow over the next 18 months, the market could remain skeptical until certain key milestones are reached.

o On the resource front, while management has demonstrated that it is adept at realizing superior value (Galilee), there are no guarantees that, given volatile global economic conditions, changing environmental regulations and significant long lead time of these projects, comparable values are going to be realized. Also, there are obvious exploratory and development risks in most oil/gas and coal operations.

o We expect Linc Energy to earn positive earnings only in 2013 and beyond. For the near-term, investors looking for positive underlying earnings power will likely be disappointed. Linc is clearly a long-term growth story.

o Linc Energy CEO, Peter Bond (who owns 40.4% of the company), has been the main driver behind the company’s growth story in recent years. This exposes investors to the “key man risk”. As an evolving and rapidly growing energy company (now with a significant global focus) we would like to see more efforts towards strengthening corporate governance, transparency, management succession strategies and an adaptable global organization structure."

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Not convinced about the remaining info.
Positive news from Lea 1, would blow that sp forecast out of the water, along with other tangibles, such as Lincs direct investment in AFC energy etc.
LNC holder

What a hammering today
Relatively high volume, and no apparent news?
Would be nice to get an update from the PR people at Linc. At least regarding the conditions at the demo site in Chinchilla.
LNC holder.

dogeatdog said:

What a hammering today
Relatively high volume, and no apparent news?
Would be nice to get an update from the PR people at Linc. At least regarding the conditions at the demo site in Chinchilla.
LNC holder.

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Gooday Doggy! Don't think there is any problem at Chinchilla but I think you will find that the sell off has a bit to do with frustrated holders selling out as they have been waiting for something to happen that might have pushed the SP of their investment along.

Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.

As they say no news is good news

ColB said:

Gooday Doggy! Don't think there is any problem at Chinchilla but I think you will find that the sell off has a bit to do with frustrated holders selling out as they have been waiting for something to happen that might have pushed the SP of their investment along.

Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.

As they say no news is good news

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Hey ColB.
Totally agree regarding LEA 1.
Historically PB doesn't tend to procrastinate on positive news.
However, I have no idea how long the technical analysis takes.
Pleasant weekend people.

Does anyone know when the actual drilling program started in Alaska? Middle winter?? If they only started started in the new year it could take some time yet?

mattryanshares said:

Does anyone know when the actual drilling program started in Alaska? Middle winter?? If they only started started in the new year it could take some time yet?

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Started 25 October 2010 with 'first well' matty. Must be a deep well

ColB said:

Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.

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I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.

Calliope said:

I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.

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Why so Cynical may I ask Calliope?
The A$3Billion coal tenement sale to Adani, with $500 million in cash. Plus a 10c dividend is hardly a trick. However your right, it takes more than "ideas" in this business to "ramp up" the share price.
Hopefully the next tenement sale. and promised divided will encourage a less volatile sp, in the future.
IMO Linc need to greatly improve their PR department.

LNC holder.

Calliope said:

I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.

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Perhaps Bondy's schedule has been put back a bit as his house on the river took in water.

"SOME of Brisbane's most expensive real estate on the river at Fig Tree Pocket was hard hit by the floods yesterday.

Linc Energy boss Peter Bond was probably reconsidering the $9.5 million he and wife Louise forked out a couple of years back for George Cheihk's old Rivergum Retreat mansion."

http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/...e-local-disaster/story-fn6ck2gb-1225986538419

The widespread floods have probably also delayed the Linc car driving from Chinchilla to Perth amid a blaze of publicity. It wouldn't surprise if a number of announcements were made during the publicity of this car trip running on Linc diesel.

I think that Bondy will have plenty of genuine news this year that will keep the S/P moving north. I also realise that there may be hiccups that could see the S/P dip.

ColB said:

Started 25 October 2010 with 'first well' matty. Must be a deep well

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The drilling of LEA #1 was completed on Nov 18-

"18 November 2010
ALASKAN GAS EXPLORATION PROGRAM SHOWS COMMERCIAL GAS POTENTIAL
● Drilling of LEA #1 exploration well in the Cook Inlet Basin completed
● The well was successfully drilled to its target depth of 6,323 feet
● LEA #1 was completed on time and within budget
● A number of gas bearing horizons have been encountered
● A testing program is now underway to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production
● Preparation for an expansion of Linc Energy’s Alaskan natural gas drilling program is underway
Linc Energy (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to report that it has completed the drilling of the LEA #1 exploration well in the Point Mackenzie Block of the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska, USA.
The well was drilled to a total depth of 6,323 feet into the basement volcanic rocks. LEA #1 encountered a number of gas bearing horizons and 7” casing has been run and cemented. This will allow Linc Energy’s technical teams to plan a testing program to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production from the prospect. A number of significant coal seams were encountered as expected. Coal is recognised as the source rock for all the gas discovered and produced from the prolific Tyonek, Beluga and Sterling formations in the Cook Inlet Basin."

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-293.pdf

Apart from analysing the results from this well they are planning another well on the other side of the bay in Alaska. Refer slides of the AGM address.

LINC ENERGY CONTINUES MOU WITH BP AUSTRALIA
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce it will continue its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with BP Australia Pty Ltd.
The MoU entitles BP Australia to take at least 70 per cent per day of produced synthetic diesel fuel from Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) facility proposed for South Australia. This is the equivalent of about 14,000 barrels each day.
“I look forward to continuing our strong relationship with one of the world’s most recognised energy companies,” said Bond.
Linc Energy owns and operates the world’s only UCG to GTL facility and has proven the in-situ conversion of solid coal to gas for cleaner synthetic fuel production. The facility is based near Chinchilla in Queensland.
“Linc Energy is leading the way in UCG for cleaner energy products. Our Chinchilla Demonstration Facility places the company in an ideal position to commercialise UCG to fuel the future for generations to come. And with Linc Energy’s push into the USA expanding each quarter, I expect UCG to GTL (fuel) to play a big part in North America’s and Australia’s energy mix in the very near future,” he said.
For more information visit www.lincenergy.com.au or contact our office on +617 3229 0800.

Call me Big Kev and Steve Irwin
Thats one exciting announcement.
To think it's market sensative as well...crikey

teabagger said:

Call me Big Kev and Steve Irwin
Thats one exciting announcement.
To think it's market sensative as well...crikey

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well its a start , read the ann and its says bp will take 70% of daily production,
so daily production os approx 20k barrels @ $100 (rounded) = $2million ,
then 2M x 365 days per annum = $730 ,

ruff math but hey , i like em anyway