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LNC - Linc Energy

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Mickel said:
Just announced by Alan Kohler on ABC that he will have Peter Bond as a guest on Inside Business on ABC1 on Sunday at 10.00 am.

Hopefully this will spread the good news further and help push the S/P higher next week.
Click to expand...

I'll be looking forward to that with interest.

I thought by today we would be around the 2.20 to 2.50 mark on the strength of that deal.

I'd laugh my ass off at the sellers at 1.75 if he said on Sunday they had decided to monetise the royalty stream and put another 1.5 billion in the bank next week through UBS.

Anyway after I got over my initial shock at seeing the price that low on Wednesdays close I went balls deep and brought T3 at my limit thinking it couldn't possibly fall any further.

Had a coffee on Thursday open and hit the sell button at 10.30 for the easiest money I ever made.

Profit from pain I'd call it.

Looking at the balance of my account takes all the pain away

 

Nice trade,

I doubled down on the 4th just before the close, happy to wait for the next announcement.. tidy return so far, it makes up for my other mistakes.
 

Makes for great reading Basilio.
Also looking forward to PB's tv interview on Sunday..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
 
Indeed.

It would be good to have some idea what the plan from here going forward is.

Keep drilling and selling coalfields, try for oil in the akarinka basin, drill in alaska for gas, build the gtl plant in SA and Wyoming....all of the above?

Definitely a lot of potential when you include another couple of sales to be tied down.

Teresa must be worth at least 500 million so that's another dollar at cash backing when finalised the market isn't even considering!

And now the deal with Adani is done PB is in a position of financial strength to conclude his negotiations with the other buyers.

Very interesting times for LNC. I'd like to have a bit more weight on it but have made some very good gains in the past few weeks and have weighted down to about 33%.
 
The Inside Business interview with Alan Kohler was very informative. Some points made by PB-

1. Cost of constructing a 20,000 Barrel GTL plant in Australia is rising (probably over AUD 1B) and 40% more than overseas.
2. Looking at constructing smaller modular units in Asia.
3. First GTL plant could be outside Australia.
4.While they have the capacity to build GTL facility by themselves they may
do a joint venture with a partner who brings more than $$$ to the venture and lessen the business risk.
5. This could likely include an Oil company .
6. They are about at least 2 years from commercial diesel production as construction would take about 20 months.

Any other views on the interview ?
 

Interesting interview.

Less spin from PB and more hard facts.

One of my concerns with LNC has been the cash burn which is very high for a company that's hasn't made any revenue.

To hear PB this morning talking costs assuaged my fears somewhat.

He sounds like he is driving LNC to the most cost effective and profitable outcome for shareholders.

Offshore fabrication and modularisation of the gtl plant to save on capex is the go.

Sounds like the SA plant is a likely jv and given BP has a mou to buy 70% of all production they must be the most likely jv partner.

That will really derisk the development costs.

As for the gtl technology he sounds very confident in the process.

Why shouldn't he be sasol have been doing it for donkeys years.

LNC is really on track now imho and a great long term hold.
 
Thanks for the summary of the interview Mickel.

As usual Peter Bond tales a big picture view. One can quickly see what it would cost a lot more to build a GTL plant in Australia rather than Asia. Labour costs, construction costs, probably compliance. And given that fuel is sold at world market rates (I believe) it immediately makes commercial sense to site a plant where it is most cost effective.

Not sure how that commercial view stands with the idea of national fuel self sufficiency however. If we accept the analysis that Peak oil is well and truly here and will impact within a few years should Australia have locally produced fuel rather than relying on importing it from overseas ? Just a thought.

Can also see why Peter might want a tie in with the oil companies in constructing the plant. In a real sense LNC would become part of Big Oil benefiting from their technological capacities as well as their political muscle.

Was anything mentioned about power generation and the role of the Alkaline Fuel Cell in producing clean electricity ?
 

Not much about power generation and nothing about AFC fuel cell.

Just a clarification- My understanding is that the GTL Plant would be constructed in Asia but transported to Australia or USA as required.

Hopefully the interview will be on LNC website this coming week.
 

Nice to get further prospective from you guys.
Not so sure BP would be interested Slipperz, or indeed have the cash to get invloved at this stage, but maybe Shell, based on their pro environmental stance.
Missed the interview with pb, but will take a peek now.
Good day people
 
Being sure is what the markets are all about isn't it?

it seems the market isn't sure that Adani is going to mine the galillee tenement for 50-60 millon tonnes of coal pa.

The alternative is they have brought the tenements for half a billion dollars cash so they can have some nice hockey fields.

I hear the Indians play a mean game of hockey.

Personally i'm of the opinion they are going to go all out to dig it up and ship it off to an energy hungry Indian power grid as soon as feasibly possible with all the resources at their disposal.

That is of course a bit of a rumour.

When the royalty stream is monetised or received that will be the fact.

On current market response roughly 2.5 billions dollars worth.

Either that coal is going to be very difficult and expensive to mine, Adani has no idea what they are buying or the Australian investment community has their heads up their arses.

i continue to hold LNC and my opinions reflect the above.

 

Yes they are skillful with a stick and ball.
Let's just say logic seems to be lacking in the market at times.
I just hope the global investment community have their heads in the air going forward, and create a higher sp for us mildly frustrated share holders.
 
According to a couple of NGO's based in europe, India is in the process of constructing 94 coal fired power generating stations. All to be completed and "on stream" by the end of 2013.
In addition, planning permission, and feasibility studies are in the works for a further 300, mainly coal fired plants.
They need coal fast!
 
 
Bloomberg just released an article stating "Linc Energy May Seek Partner for A$1 Billion Plant" http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=axGHXRXb.RII

A bit strange as the last Limelight broadcast http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/the-power-of-underground-coal-gasification said they had a lot of interest from third parties in a partnership but that Linc were not interested at this stage! From that I might guess that either:-

  1. the expected build costs have increased (which we know to be true),
  2. they are not getting enough cash from their coal sales or....and I hope this is the reason,
  3. they are expecting to build more than one plant concurrently.

The latter is certainly very possible as they have potential sites in South Australia, Wyoming, possibly Alaska and have had a lot of interest from the Chinese and the Indians too. As long as the start was staggered that could work well especially if they do it phased which I have heard mentioned on Linc releases; i.e. UCG for power first then add the GTL module later. Cool!

I love Linc they are so sensible in their modular approach. :dance:
 
Interesting interview with Peter Bond. One thing I noticed was almost the complete downplay of the CSG process. Seemed to suggest there just might not be enough money in it.

And yet the whole SA deal is based around building a 300-500 MW power station fueled by CSG. And perhaps even using alkaline fuel cells.

Maybe he is just playing possum at the moment.

____________________________________________________

Will be interesting to see how the market opens tomorrow. At some stage the analysts and the various funds will have to start adding up the value and opportunities that LNC offers. Even it's only for the cash value of the coal sales
 

Firstly, just to clarify terms used, I'm sure Basilio, that you meant UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) and not CSG (Coal Seam Gas).

On reviewing the interview, I'm surprised that PB didn't mention the power option at Walloway Sth Aust and the AFC plant. Perhaps the selling price into the grid has changed or there is some work with the AFC cell that is incomplete but promising and will deserve its own announcement.

I think the S/P will benefit this week from the ABC interview and the reporting of that interview by Bloombergs.
 
Firstly, just to clarify terms used, I'm sure Basilio, that you meant UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) and not CSG (Coal Seam Gas).
Click to expand...


Oops!! Yes. One can get too carried away with acronyms.
I'm inclined to think that the SA deal is close, is big and Bond doesn't want to expose it to to many competitors.
 
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