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LNC - Linc Energy

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I'm thinking....

Wasn't it interesting how the original leak about the Adani coal deal came from a couple of sources close to the company in India ? Whoosh up goes the stock.

A week or so later, another confirming leak. Whoosh again. Finally the announcement. Perhaps not quite what we expected but pretty good nonetheless.

Now we get wave after wave of selling driving the price down. I'm wondering (total speculation) if there wasn't a huge slab of Indian money behind the the last 3 weeks rises, that it was a bit of a set up and they are taking their profits home.

One totally unbearable possibility is that the sale is not as tight as it should be.. I realise this may sound fantastical(my new word) but the huge continuing sell down of LNC rings bells.
 
I got in with the combined information of 2 Sales and some nice figures..

What happens right now does not worry me too much we had 13 million traded on the 2nd with a normal average of closer to 2 million today we have 9 million in the first half.

Today we have had 2500 trades in the morning session..
a lot of people are watching this stock..

and

the 52 week high is 2.04, a lot of people got in at just near 1.00

I will react on news of another sale, or ill get in if it get low enough.

who said
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

some old hack
 
Just got this news release from my Internaxx account:-


I guess that sums it up! Very disappointing and even with the above it is still extremely frustrating to us investors who believe in the company. Oh well, looks like we are waiting for a coal sale...again! Lets hope they manage to get a similar AUD 1.5 billion that was originally offered by Xinwen back when we were all children.

Still holding .. and hoping Mr Bond gets gas too.
 
My god! I'm here in sunny London on holiday, and woke up with an hours trading time left on the ASX. Shocked to see the Linc SP hovering around 1.75
There's been some interesting, and clever buying in recent weeks it seems, and some serious money has been made today, but not by me.
Having said that, I'm in for the medium term at least, based on all the positives the company have in it's favour.
The champagne is back in the fridge for now.
 
I am not surprised by todays action, in the past this company has proven to be one of the leakiest on the planet , so no surprise to see the insiders who have been accumulating over the last couple of weeks cashing in today...Bond has to look after his buddys first, we come second !!

Thanks for the clarification about the deal above Mickel, wasn't aware of it all, PB will do what he has to do, but if it was me I think I'd be taking the full ammount now (1.5 bil ) and get on with the core business of building a ctl plant in SA....providing the technology works of course , which has still to be proven in my humble oppinion, but thats another issue alltogether...

Not holding my breath re the other sales, but will be happy to be proven wrong, eitherways we should be due an announcement soon regards where the company goes from here....
 
It was an interesting day today for LNC. It baffles me a little as to why the price was down today. I was really taken by suprise as the news was not bad. The old saying "the markets reaction to the news is more important than the news itself", rang true today. I guess the deal was not exactly what the market expected and as the SP didnt continue up through $2 the traders took their money elsewhere.

As I have missed out on the last few days of trading (move from 1.60 up to 1.96 and back again to todays close) I am looking for the gap to fill and support to be formed around 1.70 and see if the buy to sell ratio improves before re-entering.
 
Ive have just done a NPV calculation of my own, and came up with just over $1.381 billion using 0.075 discount rate, this still equates to $2.79/share with more sales to go and with a larger upfront payment the SP surely has to start moving north. I dont hold shares in Linc but have watched it for almost 2 years waiting for the right time to get in.
 
Very interesting market response to the sealing of the $3 billion coal sale.

There are obviously some very exposed positions from speculators who are desperate to get out. Still a large overhang on the sellers side.

On the fundamentals I think LNC is now extremely attractive. Financial security with $500 m in the bank and probably more to come.. At least another $1b owing one way or another. Great prospects, technology and assets with a current market cap around $800m. Just has to be a great opportunity for serious investors with very little downside and huge possibilities.
 

Ah Namrog, you raise some valid concerns. Personally, however, I have a little more faith in Mr Bond. There is no way he would have done this deal (and as you can hear on the Boardroom Radio intrerview http://www.brr.com.au/event/67578/linc-energy-completes-3billion-coal-asset-sale-peter-bond-managing-director actually be very excited about it, without having something else up his sleeve. A mere 500M is not enought for Linc to do what they need for sure.

Having already received "written indicitive offers" for the remaining 2 coal areas for sale and him being privvy to that information, I would guess there is much more positive information coming soon. For him to be that happy I am guessing that involves significantly more cash!

Time will tell, although from the SP move early on today, it looks like there are still others out there that believe this stock has a huge upside above $1.80.

I am still all in and will give it another month before I have to exit at least some of my positions. I will do that very reluctantly.
 
Remember they went up by 80% last month on the basis that most traders expected the deal was in the bag... so it is expected there would be a pull back yesterday with many of those buying on rumours selling on facts..

So far today they are up 6.3% and looking as the loss from yesterday will be made back and hopfully then some, a few days of gains like this and we will all be where we want to be with the SP.

Anyway it could be worse.. at least the sale did not fall through.

I would assume if the company has a NPV of $1.5B and approx 500M shares on issue the SP would be $3... but that is just what you think should be the case and not how the market works unfortunantely!

None the less I am in for the long term with this company as I believe in their technology and now they have some money behind them it could be the start of a profitable big company in the making
 

I've got a feeling as the market settles to the news we might see the share price build some momentum. Yesterday was a choppy day with the announcement not quite being what most people had anticipated. I'd like to think the share price will move towards $2.30 - $2.50 over the next fortnight or so - the market needs to wake up a realise that the deal is not so bad and there is the prospect of further coal sales very soon.
 
I think it will be really interesting to see how the analysts respond when they start adding up LNC cash resources and the potential of the technology LNC brings to the table.

Current cash $500 m. The long term royalty figure of $2.5 bill can be monetised into probably another $1b as early as next year. That's $3 a share in cash alone with the current SP at $1.87 !!

And then there are the other 2 coal tenements probably worth $400-500 m.

And we havn't started talking about the next coal leases, the Alaskan oil and gas leases the actual CTG and GTL processes which are currently performing very well AND a very promising cheap alkaline fuel cell powered by the CTG process.

There is a lot to be excited about. Probably worth comparing the situation now to Sept 2008 . SP was 2-3 times higher. Resources significantly smaller, no fuel cell, the CTG processs still being developed and a far smaller staff to actually put the program into place. LNC is in a far better place now than ever before.
 
Quote from Basilio:
And then there are the other 2 coal tenements probably worth $400-500 m.
Click to expand...

Basilio, why are you expecting such small cash values for the other 2 coal assets? I agree Pentland is small (although well located infrastructure wise). It is Galilee that has just been sold, leaving Teresa (at Emerald) as my issue here.

It is the smaller Teresa that Xinwen offered $1.5 billion for in Sep 2008 http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-94.pdf.

I do understand that the coal price has dropped since then by approx 40% - see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60 ....

... BUT prior to the Xinwen offer (like 28-July-2008) Teresa had a Jorc of 470 million tonnes of coal ( see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60 )

and as of 30-Jan-2009 (see http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-132.pdf page 7) Teresa has JORC 853 million tonnes! That is an increase of more than 75% !!!

In other words Teresa should be worth in excess of the $1.5 billion now (maybe even in excess of AUS $2 billion), certainly not in the millions. Even at 1.5 billion that SHOULD add another AUD $3.03 per share to Linc's book value.

People thought I was mad on my post before (when I said SP would equal $7 by end of the month) but in terms of cash alone, Linc should be worth over $6 per share after the Teresa deal.

Please tell me if I am missing something, either I am or the rest of the market is? :crap:
 
Good day folks.
Was on a flight home to Singapore from London, so missed trading on the 5th.
Pleasantly surprised to see the closing share price in the A$1.80's when I arrived home.
I've found this thread an interesting mix of facts, fears, jubilation and disappiontment since joining.
High expectations once the recent coal sale was announced. Talk of rapid sp increase.
The reality is, Linc energy, and it's leader(s) are small players in a very large game.
When it comes to trading the various stock markets, I, and more than likely many of you, are swimming with sharks. Professional traders will always come out on top.
We can all speculate on what we believe Linc sp should be trading at, now and in the near future.
I'm a small holder with approx 200K shares with an averaged price of A$1.32p/s.
With what has happened since 2008, I believe anything between A$4 and 5 before the end of the year, would be an amazing ROE as far as I'm concerned.
Thank you all for your continued input, and views.
 
Basilio, why are you expecting such small cash values for the other 2 coal assets? I agree Pentland is small (although well located infrastructure wise). It is Galilee that has just been sold, leaving Teresa (at Emerald) as my issue here.
Click to expand...

My estimates of the cash value of Teresa and Pentland was based on comments made in the papers after the sale of the Galilee tenement.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/billiondollar-tip-gives-linc-coal-comfort-20100802-113de.html

I was suggesting a somewhat lower figure because there is still the probability that the cash won't come upfront and I'm still aware that UBS has it's hand in the till for their cut. (It will be interesting to see what costs have been allocated for the sale process).

With regard to how high and how quickly LNC will go I'm inclined to agree with dogeatdog's comments.


I'm afraid I still see the overall market as bit of a rigged game.
 
Hello again fellow Linc investors.
Satisfactory progress regarding the sp of Linc today.
If we can break through, and beyond the A$2 p/s mark early next week, we could start to witness a share price we are all aiming for, if not praying for.
Let's also hope for bearish sentiment in Europe and the States at the close of trading.
Pleasant weekend to all.
 
I'm meant bullish of course
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
 
Just announced by Alan Kohler on ABC that he will have Peter Bond as a guest on Inside Business on ABC1 on Sunday at 10.00 am.

Hopefully this will spread the good news further and help push the S/P higher next week.
 
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