LNC - Linc Energy

Goldmann said:

Geez, people whinge if the company dont keep you informed, then you whinge when they actually do.

This newsletter would of been designed and paid for long before things got as bad as they did... and by the way - the Coal sale and first liquids is big news and they have a right to celebrate with these kind of mail... dont you guys remember not long ago LNC was trading around $5!

I got many share holder newsletters and annual reports in the past 3 or so weeks, and LNC along with AJL demonstrate professionalism and unwavering faith in their operations and long term prospects through releasing quality media.

Perhaps you guys are starting to get depressed with all the bad news floating around lately.

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Think the point was not about not being informed or being informed, rather the way the information was distributed. Think a nice HTML email would have been good enough.

From ann 13/11-

Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer of Linc Energy Limited (ASX:LNC), has
advised that Newtron Pty Ltd, a company owned by Mr Bond, has over the past few days sold 151,000 of its shares in Linc Energy at a price of approximately $3.02.

Mr Bond said that the shares were sold primarily to meet separate business and family obligations. These are the first shares sold by Mr Bond's company since Linc Energy listed in 2006 and represent only a small percentage of the total holding of over 201 million Ordinary Linc Energy shares currently held by Newtron Pty Ltd.

Mr Bond is very confident that Linc Energy will finalise the sale of its coking coal deposit at Emerald in the Bowen Basin in the very near future, and stated that he is more excited than ever about the long term future of Linc Energy.

Perhaps this is why LNC's s/p dropped away yesterday afternoon after being in the green for most of the trading day.

S/P currently up 21c to $2.82 today.

Perhaps in my last posting I should have listed the complete ann. Here it is-

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT / MEDIA RELEASE

13 November 2008

CHANGE IN DIRECTOR'S INTEREST

Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer of Linc Energy Limited (ASX:LNC), has
advised that Newtron Pty Ltd, a company owned by Mr Bond, has over the past few
days sold 151,000 of its shares in Linc Energy at a price of approximately $3.02.

Mr Bond said that the shares were sold primarily to meet separate business and
family obligations. These are the first shares sold by Mr Bond's company since Linc
Energy listed in 2006 and represent only a small percentage of the total holding of
over 201 million Ordinary Linc Energy shares currently held by Newtron Pty Ltd.

Mr Bond is very confident that Linc Energy will finalise the sale of its coking coal
deposit at Emerald in the Bowen Basin in the very near future, and stated that he is
more excited than ever about the long term future of Linc Energy.

Mr Bond said "The future of Linc Energy is progressing extraordinarily well with UCG
successfully operating and liquids being produced at Chinchilla which in itself is a
world first. The world demand for what Linc Energy does is overwhelming. I'm a
long term holder and believer in Linc Energy and will remain so.

The reality of life and family dictates a modest sale of shares from time to time to meet various issues
and costs. I will always sell at or over the market to ensure the general market in
Linc Energy scrip is not affected."

For further information please contact Peter Bond.

Peter Bond
Chief Executive Officer

Sapex deposit looks to be a great asset for Linc.
Another smart business move by the Linc team!
IMO I think China will be the first commercial plant for Linc.
They will put 3000 Chinamen on the job and have the plant erected and firing in 12 months!

mexican said:

Sapex deposit looks to be a great asset for Linc.
Another smart business move by the Linc team!
IMO I think China will be the first commercial plant for Linc.
They will put 3000 Chinamen on the job and have the plant erected and firing in 12 months!

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You may be right. The political climate in this country does not look good for new enterprises involving coal. I heard the Green's spokesperson on energy, Senator Christine Milne raving on in the Senate the other day on the evils of GTL. She was speaking on the Fuel Watch bill, but she never misses an opportunity to rant about the environmental dangers of GTL.

I got a glossy newsletter today from LNC ( I sold out a few weeks ago) telling me how they have "done it" BUT if oil is $55 a Barrel and looks like going down were does that leave LNC shares?

Another glossy newsletter today Glen 48, didn't you get one on the 12th aswell, what about the rest of us ???
You must have been a very big holder !!

What difference does it make right now that oil is around $55 per barrel, when linc won't be producing anything commercially for a few years, and do you know what the price will be by then ??
I'm guessing like the rest of us, you have absolutely no idea .!!!

In the meantime, lower energy costs, as well as possibly lower labour, material costs , because of the very fact that oil is cheap at the moment, and the reason it is so, is because of the big picture, don't you get it ??? will mean linc can develop it's plants in an accomodating environment.

As well as that, there is a theory that oil staying around $55 per barrel, will delay or at least discourage further exploration and development, when it will hardly be viable.

So do you or anyone seriously believe that oil is going to stay at these low levels for long ????, I certainly DON'T, and am currently dribble feeding into energy stocks, with a view to the future.

I reckon you're sorry you sold out and trying to get back in at a cheaper price, which you might or might not get, really LNC is no different than anything else in this environment, and if the market tanks one more time, then linc will go with it , I'll be there with you mopping up if such a thing happens.

namrog said:

Another glossy newsletter today Glen 48, didn't you get one on the 12th aswell, what about the rest of us ???
You must have been a very big holder !!

What difference does it make right now that oil is around $55 per barrel, when linc won't be producing anything commercially for a few years, and do you know what the price will be by then ??
I'm guessing like the rest of us, you have absolutely no idea .!!!

In the meantime, lower energy costs, as well as possibly lower labour, material costs , because of the very fact that oil is cheap at the moment, and the reason it is so, is because of the big picture, don't you get it ??? will mean linc can develop it's plants in an accomodating environment.

As well as that, there is a theory that oil staying around $55 per barrel, will delay or at least discourage further exploration and development, when it will hardly be viable.

So do you or anyone seriously believe that oil is going to stay at these low levels for long ????, I certainly DON'T, and am currently dribble feeding into energy stocks, with a view to the future.

I reckon you're sorry you sold out and trying to get back in at a cheaper price, which you might or might not get, really LNC is no different than anything else in this environment, and if the market tanks one more time, then linc will go with it , I'll be there with you mopping up if such a thing happens.

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Hey namrog, that's post number 14! I guess you are still at the top in the years comp with Linc. Perhaps we will ban you from entering next year!

Agree about energy stocks. Might be time to add to the holdings.

I suggest next upward move will be north of $150, but that's just my personal opinion.

Might be time to fill up the spare fuel tanks!

Just sitting back a few months ago before all this started LNC hit $5 and going up now who knows after GWB's comments today, how ever if they get to teen figures still worth a punt.

More good news from Sapex tenements... looks like SynDiesel at Chinchilla and soon Oil in SA. Good plug by PB for the SA "pro-business" government... that should be a wake-up call for the QLD pro-greenies gov.

extract from today's ASX release...

LINC ENERGY RAMPS UP OIL EXPLORATION AT SAPEX
o Linc Energy commits to oil drilling program in Arckaringa Basin
Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC) announced today that it will commence drilling key oil
opportunities identified from the recent seismic program which shows at least 18 prospects
and leads with a priority target area of I drilling locations.
Linc Energy will commit to approximately 10 to 15 oil exploration wells in the Arckaringa
Basin, with an initial budget of $9 to $10 million. Linc Energy is in negotiations with a North
American drilling exploration company based out of Texas, with the aim that a drilling
contractor will be on site by second quarter next year to commence the program.
Whilst Linc Energy purchased the SAPEX assets for their coal potential and the added
benefits of completing a straight fonryard operation in an area of abundant coal which has
the ability to be moved along quickly in the Arckaringa Basin due to the flat accessible lands,
no overlapping tenement issues, great access to infrastructure such as rail and ports, and
an internationally recognised pro-business Government; the reality remains that the SAPEX
exploration licences hold some excellent petroleum opportunities which could potentially be
valued at a considerable sum of money (see attached map showing South Australian
exploration licences held). Either as a straight asset sale or as a profit share arrangement,
the bottom line for Linc Energy Shareholders is that such a valuable asset needs to be
developed to a point that the Company can start to 'book' some of that value to the balance
sheet, either as 'cash' or as a developed asset producing cash flow.
With that driving premise, Linc Energy will aim to commence drilling the Arckaringa Basin for
petroleum (oil) opportunities in the second quarter of next year, with the program taking
approximately 12 to 18 months to complete. Linc Energy should have some excellent early
indications of what the Arckaringa Basin is capable of producing by approximately early in
the fourth quarter next year (2009).
Mr Peter Bond, Linc Energy's Chief Executive Office said "We know we have a great asset
in what has been obtained via the SAPEX merger but the oil exploration was always
potentially a significant bonus for the Shareholders. I have no other way of unlocking that
potential to a point of solid value without drilling the Arckaringa Basin and frankly, the faster
Linc Energy can drill the area and the more aggressive the initial program is, the more likely
we are going to be successful. This is a very exciting opportunity for Linc Energy and with
drilling costs decreasing and availability of people and equipment 'freeing up', this is a

Markets still falling like a stone but LNC is holding and rising.....

I thinks the core LNC investors believe it will flourish despite the overall pessimism of the market. It does have an absolutely core product, it will be a transparent company and there is no doubt that Peter Bonds relentless enthusiasm and capacity to find and create good partnerships (we hope) is keeping the faith. I believe it will be this capacity that will separate the thrivers from the failures in the coming years.

Can anyone suggest any similar companies with a strong fundamental product and the drive to keep on top of the heap ?

Another nice story from Peter Bond boosting confidence in the sale of the Teresa coal tenement.

Seems as if the amount of proven coal has practically doubled since they "sold " it to Xinwen so the deal is even BETTER than before. And of course its such a great deal that anyone else would be lining up to buy this fantastic thermal/coking coal deposit if perchance for any reason Xinwen had a little trip....

It's a good story and obviously meant to encourage everyone in the play to keep going - Xinwen to finalise, other possible buyers to keep sniffing. Nothing like a second bidder to keep the purchaser honest. Should be worth a few more cents on the SP.

Great work Peter !!

bloubul said:

More good news from Sapex tenements... looks like SynDiesel at Chinchilla and soon Oil in SA. Good plug by PB for the SA "pro-business" government... that should be a wake-up call for the QLD pro-greenies gov.

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Another release this afternoon to confirm LNC is going to build first commercial UCG/GTL plant (possibly 100000Bpd) in South Australia...

first page of ASX release...

19 November 2008
LINC ENERGY COMMITS UCG PROJECT TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA
•
Linc Energy will focus on developing its first commercial UCG to GTL Plant in South Australia
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX : LNC) today announced that it will be committing to develop its first commercial Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) operation in South Australia upon the SAPEX areas which it recently acquired.
The decision is made on the back of a number of primary drivers:
Economies of Scale
•
The Arckaringa Basin as one of the largest contiguous coal basins in Australia and indeed the world. Due to the size of the coal resource, Linc Energy believes that it can support a UCG to GTL (Coal to Liquids) business that would include several 100,000 barrel per day facilities. These facilities would be situated so as to create additional value through location and other synergies.
•
Linc Energy has already signalled its intention to develop a number of oil and gas opportunities in the Arckaringa Basin and as such, this provides additional synergy and economy of scale opportunities.
Infrastructure
•
The Arckaringa Basin area has good access to existing rail and port infrastructure that will assist with movement of materials and product for a business of this significance. This infrastructure will more readily support the larger volumes of product contemplated by way of the economies of scale generated.
Resource Access
•
The Arckaringa Basin area has no relevant overlapping tenement issues as the operation of UCG is completed under petroleum tenements in South Australia and Linc Energy currently holds PEL’s (Petroleum Exploration Licences) over its acreage in the Arckaringa Basin.
•
The land areas targeted are flat and accessible and provide more flexibility when planning and constructing UCG operations and related GTL facilities.

Bloubul, there is no need to post these anns. They are available to anybody who is interested, and in any case Linc sends shareholders an email with the same information.

This decision to go to South Australia is not unexpected and I think it is a wise move. For sometime now the Qld govt has been lukewarm on the project, and it is not very encouraging for shareholders interests to be dependant on political whims.

SA will welcome Linc with open arms. They need all the industrial development they can get. Another bonus is that there will be no fights with the big coal seam gas operators who have all the lobbying power with the Qld govt. The environmental problems in SA will also be much reduced.

When SA is leading the world in GTL production Chinchilla will become a museum site.

Anyone care to work out what 1m bpd diesel plant complex will return ? My back of envelope figures suggest $40 a barrel profit ($30 pb costs, sale at $70 pb). So $40m per day… $14. Billion + a year….

Cost to establish such a complex ? I think I remember figures of around $800 m for the 20,000 bpd plant. This is 50 times that … So $40 billion…..

And then there’s the staff, physical capital requirements, pipes, infrastructure whole kit and caboodle.

When you think about it, there are probably a few quietly desperate mining supplies companies who would love to part of such a project and desperate to see some green in their share price. One State, one Federal government and one Future Fund might also be interested in a bold, greenish plan to turn Australia into an oil exporting country and secure our energy independence in a decade - particularly as the International Energy Agency just released a dire report on the depletion of traditional oil fields. And right now we are going through the mother of all recessions. Another good reason for a big, bold step.

How lucky do we feel? Any other thoughts on these back-of-envelope figures and Peters plan?

basilio said:

Anyone care to work out what 1m bpd diesel plant complex will return ? My back of envelope figures suggest $40 a barrel profit ($30 pb costs, sale at $70 pb). So $40m per day… $14. Billion + a year….

Cost to establish such a complex ? I think I remember figures of around $800 m for the 20,000 bpd plant. This is 50 times that … So $40 billion…..

And then there’s the staff, physical capital requirements, pipes, infrastructure whole kit and caboodle.

When you think about it, there are probably a few quietly desperate mining supplies companies who would love to part of such a project and desperate to see some green in their share price. One State, one Federal government and one Future Fund might also be interested in a bold, greenish plan to turn Australia into an oil exporting country and secure our energy independence in a decade - particularly as the International Energy Agency just released a dire report on the depletion of traditional oil fields. And right now we are going through the mother of all recessions. Another good reason for a big, bold step.

How lucky do we feel? Any other thoughts on these back-of-envelope figures and Peters plan?

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Basilio, while PB mentions 1m bpd for 60 years I don't think he would start off with that. One 100,000bpd plant would be,as he says, 5 modules of 20,000bpd and Linc would probably start off with only that. I would also think constructing 5 modules at the same time would give some economies of scale-perhaps reducing each module to $700m-so that's $3.5b.

With the sale of 2 tenements for $1.5b (after tax) approx Linc could borrow $2b (from the future fund ?) or to sweeten the deal, Linc could issue shares for 10% of the borrowing total. Considering only a borrowing of $2b, and setting repayments (P&I) at $400m pa and using your back of envelope calculations (except they would be in USD), that would be $USD1.4b .Using exchange rate of .70 that is A$2.0b then deduct the loan repayment and you have A$1.6b or $4 per share before tax.

And that's not taking into account-
1. A premium for this ultra clean diesel
2. The other by products (which from memory were worth $40m pa on 20,000 bpd plant.)

Not bad for a start !!!

I would think that after the 1st 100,000 bpd plant was up and running they could start the next one, possibly constructing a 20,000 bpd module each year and funding it from cash flow. That way Linc could have almost a permanent construction team and reap many benefits from the experienced team.

I feel very lucky that I'm a shareholder in on the ground floor !!!

The market probably feels Linc are moving because they were going to be squeezed out anyway by the big boys in GSG with their $15 billion plans for piping CSG to Gladstone, and building a processing plant there.

However the move is a smart one and not enexpected. The Qld Minister for Minister for Mines and Energy Geoff Wilson has been given his riding instructions some time ago by Premier Bligh not to make any decisions to upset the Greens, and a go ahead decision for Chinchilla could not have been expected, if at all, before the next election, which Bligh cannot win without the Greens.

The final straw came from the pressure on the Govt from BG to give them the rights over the shared tenements.

Linc would have had all this in mind when they bought Sapex. They would have made this move in due course, they just needed a catalyst. Being kept dangling on a string is no way to run a business.

This article made the front page in Adelaide's The Advertiser

SOUTH Australia has been given a $1 billion shot in the arm with more jobs, greater investment and a new era in cutting-edge fuel technology.
Clean-coal company Linc Energy yesterday announced it would invest $1 billion to move operations to SA to develop the first of several coal-to-liquids plants in the state's north.

Linc will establish an Adelaide office with 100 permanent staff for the project, which produces ultra-clean diesel and jet fuels. A further 2000 construction-stage jobs will be created.

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Read on here...
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,,24678745-5006301,00.html

Strong story and obviously a big news news item for South Australia.

It was a shame there were a couple of quite important mistakes.

1) It stated that LINC had funds of $1.5b to start the project from the sale of of its coking coal tenements. Not quite true until the deal is sealed and the money in the bank.

2) Also says LINC has a 20,000 bpd plant already in operation at Chincilla. We know it is a pilot plant....

Calliope said:

You may be right. The political climate in this country does not look good for new enterprises involving coal. I heard the Green's spokesperson on energy, Senator Christine Milne raving on in the Senate the other day on the evils of GTL. She was speaking on the Fuel Watch bill, but she never misses an opportunity to rant about the environmental dangers of GTL.

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Christine Milne has for the past two decades advocated that we pin our future economy on the notion that oil remains cheap. Likewise the rest of the green movement has done much the same. They just can not seem to comprehend the notion that conventional oil and gas resources are limited despite having a seemingly good grasp of the notion that other things in nature are indeed limited.

*Tourism can replace just about all other industries. It offers massive growth and will be around forever.

*Large scale renewable energy isn't viable because oil and gas are cheaper. To build it requires subsidies, and subsidies are wrong because they divert funds that could otherwise be spent on education or health.

Those two notions are and have always been the twin pillars of Green economics, words repeated so often for so long that many now accept them as fact.

Anyone who thinks I'm telling lies just go and have a look at what's been publised over the past couple of decades. It's all there in print black and white for anyone who cares to read it.