Good points namrog. But there are a lot more oil and energy companies out there bigger and smaller than LNC but they didn't get hammered 18%. Why did LNC get singled out? Same thing happened on Sept. 30 LNC got hammered more than anyone else gapping down overnight. And today you've got energy companies like AGL Energy and Origin making gains of 3%. Just makes me think there's more going on than meets the eye.
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good read in today's AFR about Linc
they have the funding and all clear
when things pick up we will see it rally again back to its olden days
Not quite yet, Glen.
LNC currently $3.62 after falling to $3.55 earlier today, with volume of 344,000.
looks like i was right... did drop further... and i bought some more at 3.30... this is starting to feel like blind optimism!!!
Maybe oil might go that low but it wont matter. Over the long term oil will continue to rise and that's where lnc will kick @$$.
You've gotta remember Linc won't be able to produce on a commercial scale for at least a year or more. By that time it will be a whole different market (we hope).
I would have to think that if the p/plant is all up to scratch, over the coming months & years linc will sign contracts to provide the technology to companies all over the world.
I'm no pro, but I reckon most of lnc's potential is in selling the technology, rather than building their own plant and selling the diesel etc.
Could anyone give me their opinion on that?
I agree with you . As soon as the demonstration starts producing diesel, then the concept becomes a saleable commodity, and Linc have laid the foundations in other countries where they have agreements for this package (CTG/GTL) to be up and running probably much quicker than can be done here with our massive red tape.
As for the present price of oil, I don't think that is what is hammering the stock. It is more likely just irrational behaviour. The price of diesel at my garage this morning was $1.60. A barrel of oil is 159 litres. That makes the price at the pump $254 per barrel. From what I have read, in full production, Linc can produce the diesel for around $20 a barrel.
And as everybody knows, oilis getting scarcer.
P Bond has previously stated that they can produce diesel for USD28. USD80 per barrel is a profit of USD52 or AUD74.28 pb so at USD 80 pb it is still very profitable.
From the ASX announcement Sept 11-
11 September 2008
LINC SIGNS UP FOR CHINA
• Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) and Xinwen Mining Group have signed a Letter of Intent to develop Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) in China. Further to the Heads of Agreement recently announced with the Xinwen Mining Group (Xinwen) for the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” Coal Exploration Permits for AU$1.5 billion, Linc Energy announces today that it has signed a Letter of Intent with Xinwen to develop UCG and GTL in the Yining Mining Area of China.
The Yinan and Yibei coal fields in the Yining Mining Area owned by Xinwen cover over 479 square kilometres, and have a reported 15.37 billion tonnes of coal and an exploration target of an additional 14.87 billion tonnes through further drilling. (Non JORC Code standard).
Under the Letter of Intent the companies have agreed to negotiate the terms of a formal agreement to form a Joint Stock Company for the purpose of developing UCG fields to produce gas for transport directly to Shanghai through the “West to East” pipeline project already under construction and to provide the feedstock for a GTL facility to produce liquids that will be transported by pipeline to the Dushanzi Oil Refinery. It is expected that all
negotiations and the establishment of the Joint Stock Company will be finalised by the end of 2008.
Linc Energy’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr Peter Bond said “This is an exciting development as Xinwen already has government approval for Underground Coal Gasification. This means that once commercial terms are finalised, Linc Energy and its partner Xinwen can move directly into commercialisation of UCG and GTL to very quickly monetise stranded coal in China, on the back of the considerable work already completed by Linc Energy at Chinchilla in Queensland. Subsequently, these projects offer an opportunity to quickly
generate revenue for Linc Energy’s shareholders.”
So it looks like a joint venture in China with Xinwen. The question is how much (if any) capital will Linc put into the joint venture. They may pay for any equity from future profits. Also P Bond has stated he is keen to set up a commercial GTL plant in Aust- either Chinchilla or Sth Aust in his annual report.
So I think the initial plants will be either fully owned or joint ventures. The Merriman Curhan Ford (US Analysts) report on Sept 8 projected initial income
from a commercial Cinchilla GTL plant in April 2011 which was based on Linc's aim to start construction of the plant by June 2009.
AND who knows what the oil price will be in 2011 considering the volatility in the last 6 months. Even in a recession oil reserves will be declining and prices of USD 60 to 80 could be expected, but again, who knows ?
In the medium term (2013/2014) Linc could well start licensing its technology but they may be limited in the number of agreements they reach by experienced supervisory staff available.
Kenny Rogers sings "you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em". I'm holding, and, when the diesel flows, it won't be much of a gamble in my opinion.
LNC - Linc Energy
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If the pilot plant cant produce by the end of the week the SP will drop even more. Will the sale of the coal have an effect on SP directly. ie. wll it raise SP or has it already raised the SP. What I'm trying to find out is, at what point do the profits from the sale increase SP?
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Has LNC bottomed seem to be bobbing around at 3.6- 3.70 buy in now or sit back for more direction or just toss a coin and hope?
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good read in today's AFR about Linc
they have the funding and all clear
when things pick up we will see it rally again back to its olden days
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Tar eh blows yer har happy days are here again !!!!!!
The bailout and rate reduction is work at last
The bailout and rate reduction is work at last
Not quite yet, Glen.
LNC currently $3.62 after falling to $3.55 earlier today, with volume of 344,000.
Even with all the credit crisis happening, I'm amazed to see LNC down at $3.50 again.
They're on the verge of producing liquids which is an absolutely huge moment for the company since it proves that what they're actually trying to do, works.
I would have at least expected it to hold at $4.50. Goes to show the state of the overall market I guess?
I'm holding though.
They're on the verge of producing liquids which is an absolutely huge moment for the company since it proves that what they're actually trying to do, works.
I would have at least expected it to hold at $4.50. Goes to show the state of the overall market I guess?
I'm holding though.
looks like i was right... did drop further... and i bought some more at 3.30... this is starting to feel like blind optimism!!!
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I hope there are plenty of Balls of Steel amongst Linc investors.
One would think that with a cash value of around $3.60 a share from the agreed sale of the Teresa coal tenements, a wealth of other coal discoveries and the imminent production of oil from the pilot plant there would be some resilience in the share price.
But Linc tanks by 18%. Certainty come come soon enough.
One would think that with a cash value of around $3.60 a share from the agreed sale of the Teresa coal tenements, a wealth of other coal discoveries and the imminent production of oil from the pilot plant there would be some resilience in the share price.
But Linc tanks by 18%. Certainty come come soon enough.
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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What happens if OIL goes down to say 60 - 70 a barrel ??? Will Lnc still be viable ?
Any one got any cure for premature Greying?
I rang Life line and told me to push the hash key and enjoy???
Any one got any cure for premature Greying?
I rang Life line and told me to push the hash key and enjoy???
Linc remains a spec stock until it produces liquids, and then not commercially, so the market in these times reacts accordingly.
Maybe the Chinese are also waiting for liquids, just maybe.
As I said before, Linc are not inventing the wheel, merely inventing the rubber tyre that goes on the wheel. The new techno is only 10%, the rest has been done before. ( As Bond has explained,, boardroom radio )
So hang on, because, look at the news going forward, what company will have more SP momentum news.
Maybe the Chinese are also waiting for liquids, just maybe.
As I said before, Linc are not inventing the wheel, merely inventing the rubber tyre that goes on the wheel. The new techno is only 10%, the rest has been done before. ( As Bond has explained,, boardroom radio )
So hang on, because, look at the news going forward, what company will have more SP momentum news.
Maybe oil might go that low but it wont matter. Over the long term oil will continue to rise and that's where lnc will kick @$$.
You've gotta remember Linc won't be able to produce on a commercial scale for at least a year or more. By that time it will be a whole different market (we hope).
I would have to think that if the p/plant is all up to scratch, over the coming months & years linc will sign contracts to provide the technology to companies all over the world.
I'm no pro, but I reckon most of lnc's potential is in selling the technology, rather than building their own plant and selling the diesel etc.
Could anyone give me their opinion on that?
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What are the price per barrel figures based on....the AUD is down to 0.68 which means the price of oil in australian dollar terms is 128 per barrel. When oil peaked at 148 our dollar was about .96. The price at the pump certainly hasn't plummeted its holding fast. Would OPEC cut production to hold the price steady at 80-90??
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I agree with you . As soon as the demonstration starts producing diesel, then the concept becomes a saleable commodity, and Linc have laid the foundations in other countries where they have agreements for this package (CTG/GTL) to be up and running probably much quicker than can be done here with our massive red tape.
As for the present price of oil, I don't think that is what is hammering the stock. It is more likely just irrational behaviour. The price of diesel at my garage this morning was $1.60. A barrel of oil is 159 litres. That makes the price at the pump $254 per barrel. From what I have read, in full production, Linc can produce the diesel for around $20 a barrel.
And as everybody knows, oilis getting scarcer.
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It would be really interesting to know whether insiders have been selling
does anyone have access to this info?
I believe the share register is fairly tightly held at the top
sorry i dont have time at the minute to do this research.
I expect that there must have been some OS holders selling down, in order to repatriate due to the A$ slaughter.
other reasons could be simply profit taking or margin calls
or some holdup in the tenement sale to China
or plant commisioning problems...chemical plants are notoriously prone to commission delay.
dont forget, the CEO has done a real slick sales job so far.
I want to state that i do not consider this to be rumour mongering, only searching for reasons.
i disclose holdings and have not sold
does anyone have access to this info?
I believe the share register is fairly tightly held at the top
sorry i dont have time at the minute to do this research.
I expect that there must have been some OS holders selling down, in order to repatriate due to the A$ slaughter.
other reasons could be simply profit taking or margin calls
or some holdup in the tenement sale to China
or plant commisioning problems...chemical plants are notoriously prone to commission delay.
dont forget, the CEO has done a real slick sales job so far.
I want to state that i do not consider this to be rumour mongering, only searching for reasons.
i disclose holdings and have not sold
Really the price of oil should not be taken into consideration.IMO.
The US already stating that they will not be held to ransom by dictators and tyrants from oil producing countries and it is time to become self sufficient. Importing 60% of oil and climbing.
Also the US military wants all military equipment to be operating on bio fuels with in the next ten years.
Got to look at the bigger picture.
The US already stating that they will not be held to ransom by dictators and tyrants from oil producing countries and it is time to become self sufficient. Importing 60% of oil and climbing.
Also the US military wants all military equipment to be operating on bio fuels with in the next ten years.
Got to look at the bigger picture.
P Bond has previously stated that they can produce diesel for USD28. USD80 per barrel is a profit of USD52 or AUD74.28 pb so at USD 80 pb it is still very profitable.
From the ASX announcement Sept 11-
11 September 2008
LINC SIGNS UP FOR CHINA
• Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) and Xinwen Mining Group have signed a Letter of Intent to develop Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) in China. Further to the Heads of Agreement recently announced with the Xinwen Mining Group (Xinwen) for the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” Coal Exploration Permits for AU$1.5 billion, Linc Energy announces today that it has signed a Letter of Intent with Xinwen to develop UCG and GTL in the Yining Mining Area of China.
The Yinan and Yibei coal fields in the Yining Mining Area owned by Xinwen cover over 479 square kilometres, and have a reported 15.37 billion tonnes of coal and an exploration target of an additional 14.87 billion tonnes through further drilling. (Non JORC Code standard).
Under the Letter of Intent the companies have agreed to negotiate the terms of a formal agreement to form a Joint Stock Company for the purpose of developing UCG fields to produce gas for transport directly to Shanghai through the “West to East” pipeline project already under construction and to provide the feedstock for a GTL facility to produce liquids that will be transported by pipeline to the Dushanzi Oil Refinery. It is expected that all
negotiations and the establishment of the Joint Stock Company will be finalised by the end of 2008.
Linc Energy’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr Peter Bond said “This is an exciting development as Xinwen already has government approval for Underground Coal Gasification. This means that once commercial terms are finalised, Linc Energy and its partner Xinwen can move directly into commercialisation of UCG and GTL to very quickly monetise stranded coal in China, on the back of the considerable work already completed by Linc Energy at Chinchilla in Queensland. Subsequently, these projects offer an opportunity to quickly
generate revenue for Linc Energy’s shareholders.”
So it looks like a joint venture in China with Xinwen. The question is how much (if any) capital will Linc put into the joint venture. They may pay for any equity from future profits. Also P Bond has stated he is keen to set up a commercial GTL plant in Aust- either Chinchilla or Sth Aust in his annual report.
So I think the initial plants will be either fully owned or joint ventures. The Merriman Curhan Ford (US Analysts) report on Sept 8 projected initial income
from a commercial Cinchilla GTL plant in April 2011 which was based on Linc's aim to start construction of the plant by June 2009.
AND who knows what the oil price will be in 2011 considering the volatility in the last 6 months. Even in a recession oil reserves will be declining and prices of USD 60 to 80 could be expected, but again, who knows ?
In the medium term (2013/2014) Linc could well start licensing its technology but they may be limited in the number of agreements they reach by experienced supervisory staff available.
Kenny Rogers sings "you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em". I'm holding, and, when the diesel flows, it won't be much of a gamble in my opinion.