LNC - Linc Energy

basilio · 28 September 2008

Little Mak I think your comparisons with Firepower are (way) off the mark.

Yes Peter Bond is entrepreneurial and I believe his capacity to inspire and bring in investors is one of the elements that has raised LINCs profile and share price more than more conservative companies.

But the essential difference is that the coal to oil product is real and comes at a time when traditional oil supplies are in terminal decline and everyone will looking for new oil. The idea is a game breaker - what remains is making it all work.

Firepowers magic petrol pills were just pure marketing BS. If you look at the 4 Corners expose on the company you quickly get an idea of how the only reality in the scheme was separating people from their money.

I also think that attempting to compare Peter Bond to Alan Bond because they share a surname is...... not that useful.

Yes I do have an interest in LINC et al.

The Dealer · 28 September 2008

bluekat said:
Mickel, yes I was lucky enough to get back in below $4, I have been lucky with Linc, buying in on the lows and selling on the highs over the last four months, but I think after next week those days are gone.

Linc is now 100% of my portfolio, stupid I know, but then again maybe not.
Time will tell!.

I agree with all those probable sites, plus India and Vietnam. I think China could be producing before Australia, they will fast track construction, not sure, but likely.

Bluekat I think your on to something.
Vietnam is also very keen like China is about the future. Why else would you bother adding a few million tonnes of coal to your 35 billion tonne stockpile. They want the liquids technology! You can put it in cars!
Someone said that LNC is 100% of their portfolio. Pretty smart I reckon. Would rather hold physcal assets than paper right now.
Breaking news - Just bought some of the new warrants LNCWMC through Macquarie bank at $2.11. Will wait till Monday before launching in, but wanted to be the first to buy them.
If there is another asset sale, maybe we would see some sort of special dividend?? Keep us keen.

Mickel · 28 September 2008

basilio said:
Little Mak I think your comparisons with Firepower are (way) off the mark.

Yes Peter Bond is entrepreneurial and I believe his capacity to inspire and bring in investors is one of the elements that has raised LINCs profile and share price more than more conservative companies.

But the essential difference is that the coal to oil product is real and comes at a time when traditional oil supplies are in terminal decline and everyone will looking for new oil. The idea is a game breaker - what remains is making it all work.

Firepowers magic petrol pills were just pure marketing BS. If you look at the 4 Corners expose on the company you quickly get an idea of how the only reality in the scheme was separating people from their money.

I also think that attempting to compare Peter Bond to Alan Bond because they share a surname is...... not that useful.

Yes I do have an interest in LINC et al.

Spot on, basilio, on all counts.

If anything, having a surname of Bond has been a handicap for PB because it is natural to assume a connection between PB and Alan Bond.

Peter Bond is entrepreneurial because he saw a company (LINC) that had potential and had the vision, capital and driving force to combine 2 proven technologies into a very sound business plan (producing diesel for USD28 pb in a demand market). On top of that, he has a number of environmental advantages with the processes and further initiatives under way.

The other Bond was essentially a salesman with some unsound business plans.

Mickel · 28 September 2008

The Dealer said:
Bluekat I think your on to something.
Vietnam is also very keen like China is about the future. Why else would you bother adding a few million tonnes of coal to your 35 billion tonne stockpile. They want the liquids technology! You can put it in cars!
Someone said that LNC is 100% of their portfolio. Pretty smart I reckon. Would rather hold physcal assets than paper right now.
Breaking news - Just bought some of the new warrants LNCWMC through Macquarie bank at $2.11. Will wait till Monday before launching in, but wanted to be the first to buy them.
If there is another asset sale, maybe we would see some sort of special dividend?? Keep us keen.

Hi Dealer

The MOU's with Vietnam so far- ASX announcements 5/12/07 and 28/3/08- which are accessible on the Link website, refer only to Syn gas from LINC's UCG process supplying feed for a power station. This is expected to be the first joint venture project.

I wouldn't expect this project to be as profitable as producing diesel (not as capital expensive either) but that is certainly possible down the track.

What right (or warrant) do you get for your $2.11 LNCWMC ?

grace · 28 September 2008

joestjack said:
a big party tent eh?

I think you're right - they're just waiting for the best time to announce it. PB's probably been filling up his Landcruiser at the Linc bowser for weeks.

Are you directly associated with Linc, Grace? You seem to have your finger on the pulse?

NO, no Link with Linc. If I did, I certainly wouldn't be posting on this site! Just an investor like everyone else. Know quite a lot of investors who show up at the site from time to time, and receive feedback too. I guess we all like to get that bit of inside knowledge, but Linc don't have too many leaks IMO. My Linc investment has been kind to me.

Mickel · 28 September 2008

Regarding Peter Bond's Linc shareholding through his company, Newtron P/L-

From the 06/07 Annual Report -

No. of Shares 201,557,383

% of Company 62.74%

From the 07/08 Annual Report

No of shares 201,557,383

% of Company 54.54%

So, as at 30/6/08 PB hadn't sold any shares but because of the issue of new shares to Contractors, land owners, staff and Institutions (@$3.70) his controlling percentage of the Company has reduced to 54.54%.This is still sufficient to guide the company to its medium to long term goals without worrying about possible takeovers.

Apart from staff options, there would appear to be very little need to issue more shares, given the $1.5 Billion sale and another expected sale.

This is very rare in a relatively new company with huge expansion plans and can only be positive for the share price, particularly when the good news regarding the company hits the front page.

Disclosure- I hold LNC

The Dealer · 28 September 2008

Mickel said:
Hi Dealer

The MOU's with Vietnam so far- ASX announcements 5/12/07 and 28/3/08- which are accessible on the Link website, refer only to Syn gas from LINC's UCG process supplying feed for a power station. This is expected to be the first joint venture project.

I wouldn't expect this project to be as profitable as producing diesel (not as capital expensive either) but that is certainly possible down the track.

What right (or warrant) do you get for your $2.11 LNCWMC ?

Mikel,
It's a call warrant that expire in ???02/09. I'm betting the price will rise between now then. Essentially, every 4c movement up in LNC share price there is a 3c move in the price of the warrant. SP was $5.21 warrant 2.11. So for 10k i could buy 1800 normal shares or 5000 warrants. So say the sp gets to 9.45 and I sell up, the 10k warrant is 25k approx (15K up). If the 1800shares ($10000) goes up $4.24 times, and you sell the 1800 that's a profit of$7632. It just a way to leverage in.
Please don't take this as advice as it also works the other way if the sp goes down and you could have nothing. Look into yourself. There are 3 different ones. If you go to the asx website, bring up LNC and then click on LNC, then click warrants they are there.

agro · 28 September 2008

i am going to buy more of these tomorrow

i reckon its the FMG of coal seam -doesn't anyone else?

look at the graph!

Mickel · 28 September 2008

The Dealer said:
Mikel,
It's a call warrant that expire in ???02/09. I'm betting the price will rise between now then. Essentially, every 4c movement up in LNC share price there is a 3c move in the price of the warrant. SP was $5.21 warrant 2.11. So for 10k i could buy 1800 normal shares or 5000 warrants. So say the sp gets to 9.45 and I sell up, the 10k warrant is 25k approx (15K up). If the 1800shares ($10000) goes up $4.24 times, and you sell the 1800 that's a profit of$7632. It just a way to leverage in.
Please don't take this as advice as it also works the other way if the sp goes down and you could have nothing. Look into yourself. There are 3 different ones. If you go to the asx website, bring up LNC and then click on LNC, then click warrants they are there.

Thanks for the explanations, Dealer. I understand the risks and will stick to the shares. Good Luck with your punt.

I understand that you can close out your warrant before the expiry date (26/2/09) if you are happy with a certain profit- like if the SP hit $10 before Christmas. That way you could eliminate your risk of a SP downturn in mid Feb 09.

Is this correct ?

grace · 28 September 2008

agro said:
i am going to buy more of these tomorrow

i reckon its the FMG of coal seam -doesn't anyone else?

look at the graph!

Agro, the thought had crossed my mind many times......just wasn't quite game enough to post it up. Only time will tell of course. The key to linc is having the funding issue passed. These markets are/will crucify those who are short on cash. Hopefully, that will see Linc rise above the rest.

Chart does look very bullish.

Ruincity · 29 September 2008

Santoro said:
From the annual report released 12 September.....its been two weeks since this was released, surely the announcement is due out any hour now....

Santoro said:
Linc Energy to start diesel plant within days.....Published 4:03 PM, 24 Sep 2008

Business Spectator

Well it's been a fair `few days' since this news was knowledge.
And probably a day or two before it became known.
Still no release to the market??

I notice Linc reached an all time high of $5.37 this morning not long after opening..
Managed to finish the day down though at $5.14..

Santoro · 29 September 2008

Ruincity said:
Well it's been a fair `few days' since this news was knowledge.
And probably a day or two before it became known.
Still no release to the market??

I notice Linc reached an all time high of $5.37 this morning not long after opening..
Managed to finish the day down though at $5.14..

Yeah....didn't the sp bob up and down seems to be holding above $5 but now that I've posted this I expect you will be able to pick it up in the high 4's tomorrow.
Can't be long...probabaly priced into the sp in any case....

Calliope · 29 September 2008

It's the same old pattern, gains in the morning and lose it all and more in the afternoon. Its similar with CNX although it was up on the day. It is getting difficult to predict what sort of good news it will take to shake off the day traders who are causing the volatility. On the other hand it wouldn't take much bad news (or lack of news) to have them heading for the exits again.

Some of you may remember that the demonstration plant was commissioned with much fanfare on 28 Feb. It has now had seven months of fine tuning. A little transparency here wouldn't go amiss.

newanimal · 30 September 2008

scooped out a bunch of stop losses under most recent support (4.40) no doubt. Included mine @ 3.38. Im sure lnc will recover. Now...how to get back in...hmmm

Pigsy · 30 September 2008

LNC today is the 3rd worst performing stock for companies over $2m in volume. Only 2 companies worse are FMG and Babcock and they have been basket cases on the ASX of late. Not looking good at all.
No news is bad news. Is there a problem with the plant?

joestjack · 30 September 2008

I think it's just the market today. Absolutely every stock on my CommSec watchlist is massively deep in red.

It'll bounce back.

Had a great article on the sub-prime crisis sent to me this morning. My understanding of American politics is small, but found this very, very interesting.

Have a read...

http://www.makepeacetotalpackage.com/clayton-makepeace/a-conspiracy-of-imbeciles.html

Calliope · 30 September 2008

Pigsy said:
LNC today is the 3rd worst performing stock for companies over $2m in volume. Only 2 companies worse are FMG and Babcock and they have been basket cases on the ASX of late. Not looking good at all.
No news is bad news. Is there a problem with the plant?

Linc would be crazy to release any good news at the present time. It would be wasted. Don't lose the faith. At the moment the price is 4.49. A month ago when it was 3.30, we would have thought 4.40 pretty good. We always knew this stock was volatile and we came in with our eyes open. As I have said before, leave the exodus to the lemmings. We don't need them.

bluekat · 30 September 2008

I agree Calliope, better to leave it for a better day.
The SP has recovered was down 13% , as I write 6.51%.
Anyone got an idea how the US market will perform tonight?. The Dow futures did not look good this morning.

grace · 30 September 2008

Nice to see Linc showing some strength this afternoon. Only 2 more hours of trading, and I might win my first ever stock comp!

bluekat · 30 September 2008

You win Grace, by a country mile, did you choose Linc for next months competition?.
Looks good for tomorrow Linc holders.

LNC - Linc Energy

basilio

The Dealer

Mickel

Mickel

grace

Mickel

The Dealer

agro

Mickel

grace

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Ruincity

Santoro

Calliope

newanimal

Pigsy

joestjack

Calliope

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