LNC - Linc Energy

notting · 9 March 2013

Tezzad said:
One day we will have to get together and measure pianos.

Why?
If you drop a baby grand off a 100 story building at the same time as a grand, which one will hit the ground first?
The fall will be simultaneous. Only one will be more expensive than the other.

Small man big man complex and other Bond like issues aside -

Tezzad said:
Wish I had the nerve to jump out and hop back in

Why?
The vast majority that do tend support those who don’t.
Those that overwhelmingly succeed in the market over the longer term do so on things that deliver genuine inflation + interest beating return on capital over the medium to longer term without having to jump in and out, hardly at all.
Oh, I see, LNC will never do that.
So yeah jumping in and out is a better option.
Trade the spin.
Good point.

Tezzad said:
I just had a look at the form from the US, volumes are pretty impressive. 154k equating to about $45m. It would appear that the yanks all want a piece of the Cinderella Story.

Tezzad said:
I still would like to see tankers driving out the gates with something we can sell, for real dollars for actual profit???

We:

Still’s the word alright.
:whip

Holders will still be reciting that mantra in 7 years time after having their holdings meaningfully liquidated if they have been suckered in with it for all that time - Still no tankers, still not tankers.....................................................................................

Guess the Great bull market after the great recession could save them.

For now -

It's as gooda trend as any.

Mickel · 9 March 2013

Some facts-

US market finished Thurs at US$27.45 which equates to A$2.69 per LNC share.
Aussie market finished at $2.70 on Friday.

US market finished Fri at US$28.87 which equates to A$2.83 per LNC share.

Aussie market on Monday ???

This LNC presentation in New York recently became available yesterday. Of particular interest, regarding the Shale asset in Sth Aust, the presenter Anthony Watson stated that LNC would be looking for a cash return as well as a JV partner coughing up money for exploration, while retaining a minority interest.

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/110294/partner/couriermail

So when a JV agreement is announced, LNC could get a cash injection of hundreds of millions of dollars while retaining a 20% or 30% stake.

If such an announcement were made the S/P would rocket ahead much more then the worth of the cash injection, as it would signify that a major company with deep pockets was very confident of profitable oil extraction.

Such an announcement is not likely before June 13, but anyone not on board by then may miss the LNC boat altogether. Of course with so many other good announcements in the pipeline, the S/P may be over $4 by June, even before the Shale announcement.

IMHO.

Skatter · 10 March 2013

Mickel said:
Some facts-

US market finished Thurs at US$27.45 which equates to A$2.69 per LNC share.
Aussie market finished at $2.70 on Friday.

US market finished Fri at US$28.87 which equates to A$2.83 per LNC share.

Aussie market on Monday ???

This LNC presentation in New York recently became available yesterday. Of particular interest, regarding the Shale asset in Sth Aust, the presenter Anthony Watson stated that LNC would be looking for a cash return as well as a JV partner coughing up money for exploration, while retaining a minority interest.

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/110294/partner/couriermail

So when a JV agreement is announced, LNC could get a cash injection of hundreds of millions of dollars while retaining a 20% or 30% stake.

If such an announcement were made the S/P would rocket ahead much more then the worth of the cash injection, as it would signify that a major company with deep pockets was very confident of profitable oil extraction.

Such an announcement is not likely before June 13, but anyone not on board by then may miss the LNC boat altogether. Of course with so many other good announcements in the pipeline, the S/P may be over $4 by June, even before the Shale announcement.

IMHO.

All I can say with that all "just" hope for more accumulators coming into the game to solidify a floor price. In other words. hold onto your hats ladies

Mickel · 11 March 2013

LNC spuds first well at Umiat-

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130311/pdf/42dkt8vv5267td.pdf

LNC drilling program was delayed with the cold and windy weather in Alaska. However, they now look like finishing their planned drilling program by deferring drilling of the disposal well to next year and using alternative disposal methods this year.

The next well to be drilled will be a horizontal one which will then be flow tested. If the flow test shows 50,000 bpd as expected, the S/P will jump massively (perhaps $2).

A good start to the week !

Already up 11c to $2.81

princeplanet · 11 March 2013

Hit $3 today, with far bigger news still to come.....

Tezzad · 11 March 2013

princeplanet said:
Hit $3 today, with far bigger news still to come.....

I have to admit it's a lot more fun watching the up side knowing your butt is well and truly covered. Just about lost all my hair watching and buying on the down side. Will be good to see the same sort of volumes in the US over night as there was on Friday. It does feel like one good concrete announcement and it will take off. (Holding my skirt and hat in anticipation)

Arrrre Notting we have been here before??? Haven't we?? Maybe a little dejavu!!! :whip

Mickel · 12 March 2013

Very good day for LNC today with S/P rising 25c to $2.95, after hitting an intraday high of $3.03, on turnover of 15.6 m shares.

Mr Z, do you have an updated technical view on the LNC S/P ?

I would appreciate your views.

princeplanet · 12 March 2013

Mickel said:
Very good day for LNC today with S/P rising 25c to $2.95, after hitting an intraday high of $3.03, on turnover of 15.6 m shares.

Mr Z, do you have an updated technical view on the LNC S/P ?

I would appreciate your views.

If Mr Z doesn't answer, then perhaps google "topstocks LNC" for a lengthy discussion with some big players. Some may be rampers, but I'm sure you'll spot them!......

skivvy · 13 March 2013

I too would appreciate Mr Z' Tech Analysis view on this one. I can admit to selling part of my holdings at 2.99 on Monday as I felt that the resistance at 3.00 was a point for consolidation. My ta view was that there was an equal drive pattern from 2.25 to 2.75 and the next move would be from 2.50 to 3.00 ish, hence my part profit take at 2.99. The RSI also looked over bought to me on Monday. I am looking to top up again on a pull back to 2.75 or lower if it comes back, which I believe it will.
The thing with this stock is sometimes the news just keeps getting better and the TA is out the window, but I need to stick to my learnings and apply my TA. Good luck to all long term holders like Mickel and others.

Disc: stock held

Skatter · 14 March 2013

I can't find an American forum that's talking about this stock. The Ann was pretty plain so this will be time for LNC to find its floor price. Gives us time to look at other stocks and follow what there doing

notting · 14 March 2013

notting said:
Or are you going to take it at 3, or at least put a trailing stop in?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=754210&viewfull=1#post754210

Hope people did take it at 3, as it's the worst performer today out of the ones I whatch in the space!
But not willing to short just yet.

Mickel · 14 March 2013

skivvy said:
The thing with this stock is sometimes the news just keeps getting better and the TA is out the window, but I need to stick to my learnings and apply my TA. Good luck to all long term holders like Mickel and others.

Disc: stock held

Hi Skivvy

I would apreciate a private message from you regarding how you apply your TA.

Thanks

Mickel

basilio · 15 March 2013

AFC has released its Annual Report. The progress on its fuel cells is very impressive. LNC holds a 12% interest in AFC, has a seat on the Board and its UCG process is a prime candidate for widespread use of clean, cost competitive, coal produced energy.

Very keen to see when and where the first UCG/fuell Cell operation is started.

http://www.afcenergy.com/_userfiles/pages/files/AFC Energy plc Annual Report and Accounts 2012.pdf

skivvy · 15 March 2013

Good find Basilio, thanks for posting the link.

Reinforces how diversified Linc are.
They are drilling the first Umiat well quickly, little bump back up for the SP today.
I missed the Ann and the re-entry, will see if it can hold above 2.70 next week.

Mickel · 16 March 2013

Two announcements out on Friday-

1. The latest on drilling at Umiat-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-470.pdf

Everyone is very happy with the first few days of drilling. The big news will be when they get the flow test results from the 2nd well (the horizontal one).

2. The half yearly accounts-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-471.pdf

Nothing appears untoward but the critical financials will be the next 2 quarters IMO as they need to increase revenue too be self supporting.

notting · 16 March 2013

After 16 years of loss making and mining share holders, nothing appears to be untoward other than -

Mickel said:
they need to increase revenue too be self supporting.

:silly:

Mickel said:
Nothing appears untoward

Naa it’s all good.
Bond and co have done very well over LNCs 16 years of loss making.
All it took was one great discovery - the stock market!

Where's my hard hat? It's time for a photo.

Mickel · 18 March 2013

notting said:
After 16 years of loss making and mining share holders, nothing appears to be untoward other than -

:silly:

Naa it’s all good.
Bond and co have done very well over LNCs 16 years of loss making.
All it took was one great discovery - the stock market!

Where's my hard hat? It's time for a photo.

Notting, it's obvious from your comments that you haven't followed the LINC strategy with oil and gas.

Stating that you're "dyslexic" is no excuse if you are to make constructive comments on a stock, rather than sarcastic ones.

dogeatdog · 19 March 2013

Mickel said:
Notting, it's obvious from your comments that you haven't followed the LINC strategy with oil and gas.

Stating that you're "dyslexic" is no excuse if you are to make constructive comments on a stock, rather than sarcastic ones.

Ditto that Mickel

Tezzad · 24 March 2013

Lets hope we get a little more to read this week? Took the opportunity to do a little topping up over the last week. Hopefully just in time for the next hiddyup? :whip

Mickel · 25 March 2013

Good preliminary news from LNC regarding the Umiat drilling program-
drilled through a 100ft oil reservoir.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-472.pdf

S/P hit a high of $2.84 but is now at $2.76 (up 6c) on turnover of 1.87M shares.

There was also some speculation in the "Citybeat" column of the Courier Mail last week that Qld Govt legislation on UCG is imminent.
Could be a good week to finish the quarter !

LNC - Linc Energy

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