Let the bargain hunting begin

[ROE]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...ive-investors-dump-stocks-20141008-3hi2s.html

 

[crypto]

My ASX game is looking pretty ordinary today

 

[Wysiwyg]

In a note to clients the analysts flag that the Aussie sharemarket looks “relatively” oversold after plunging more than 6 per cent since its recent high (probably a bit more now), while global shares have dropped only 3 per cent lower over the period.

DAX = about 10% fall
FTSE = about 7.5% fall
ASX200 = about 9.3% fall
S&P500 = about 5% fall

 

[KnowThePast]

I've certainly increased my buying activity this month, and will continue to do so if prices keep coming down.

 

[DeepState]

I've certainly increased my buying activity this month, and will continue to do so if prices keep coming down.

Are there a set of characteristics that you are focussing on KTP? Or are you acquiring across the board (ie. to your existing portfolio in proportion)?

 

[KnowThePast]

Are there a set of characteristics that you are focussing on KTP? Or are you acquiring across the board (ie. to your existing portfolio in proportion)?

I forgot who said it, but my favourite saying to describe my investment approach is: "Small is beautiful, especially if it's ugly".

At the moment, I am buying all the remaining new stocks that meet my filter. I've topped up on one (NWH), and may continue to top up on others, if ASX continues dropping.

I don't usually top up when an individual stock goes down, because I do expect a poor-ish hit rate in my stock picking. But when the decline is across the board, and I have plenty of cash available, that's a different story.

 

[galumay]

I moved a bit soon - with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, i entered the market about a week ago with significant cash from my SMSF. I am not losing any sleep over it tho', all entries were into companies that had been on my watch list for some time and i was happy to pay the price i entered at so its no good wringing my hands about lost opportunity.

I might have waited longer and then the market bounced and then the hindsight says I should have entered at the original point, no sense trying to time the market to the last few %, especially when I am a long term investor.

I reckon there are some great opportunities out there now, KTP mentions NWH and thats one i have in both my personal portfolio and SMSF, its great value at current prices I reckon, low debt, plenty of work on the books, good management and despite what people outside the industry think, mining companies and downstream producers all continue to use significant numers of contractors alongside their FTE's - and will do so right thru the commodity cycle.

NVT is another i see that has dropped to a point where its worth considering if you dont already hold, BRG and SGH have also moved into more price ranges for entry. I guess there are plenty more opportunities out there too if you hunt around.

 

[pixel]

Can any of you guys see the possibility of a drawn-out slide with only small temporary relief rallies? And can you visualise what such an event might do to an averaged-down portfolio?
I don't know how the future may pan out; but I'm one of those traders afflicted with a memory. Current/ recent market behaviour reminds me vaguely of a lengthy period that started about 7 years ago.

Weekly ASX S&P200 Now:



Weekly ASX S&P200 Then:



I got lucky in late 2007 when I, for one reason or another, liquidated most of my holdings and took a long holiday across Tasmania. In March 2008, I listened to the soothsayers and, being rather optimistic by nature myself, got back into the market. Look what happened 2 months later! That was about the only May justifying the old-wives ditty, "Sell in May. Go away." And about the only May I did so too. And switched to Guppy's "Bear Trading" strategy.
It wasn't till a full year later that I felt safe enough to be fully invested and Long again.

Repeat: I'm not predicting anything. Merely comparing two chart segments, the first one, and the outcome of which I still remember quite well. Sometimes, history rhymes...

 

[galumay]

Can any of you guys see the possibility of a drawn-out slide with only small temporary relief rallies?

As I see it, its one of the infinite number of possibilities for the future of the market! As my dear old Dad used to say, "Son, things will either get better, get worse or stay the same." - he was rarely wrong.

Its precisely why I dont beat myself up about buying positions a week before the current low point, its more important to buy shares in companies that are reasonable value at current prices, and meet my criteria for fundamental financial data. I have no way of predicting the future so unlike those who do I am somewhat limited in my approach.

 

[ROE]

before the fall, I found nothing of value but since the correction some stock trade at price I am willing to pay for long term outlook (10 years+) ... I actually sold a fair bit of stock before the fall so some of them I just get back cheaper

even though it is not cheap or bargain, it is a price I am willing to pay to hold long term and if need be I add more if the price keep sliding .... it hard to know where is the bottom so I start biting a little when I see the price is ok and average down.

that has always been my theme and I will continue to do so...Trading my surplus capital for passive income stream.

I mostly buy cash flow +ve business so it doesn't bother me too much about daily price movement knowing
I get my dividend comes Reporting season and it will be in business many years from now

and when it get hot, it is not if but when I start selling down and repeat the process.

 

[Bill M]

Its precisely why I dont beat myself up about buying positions a week before the current low point, its more important to buy shares in companies that are reasonable value at current prices, and meet my criteria for fundamental financial data. I have no way of predicting the future so unlike those who do I am somewhat limited in my approach.

Same here galumay, I can not see or second guess the future, nobody can. What I do see is good dividend paying stocks that have been and most likely will be around for a long time that are going to fit into my super account very well and that will be for the long term, more like for the rest of my life. Buying 7 to 8% grossed up dividends for the rest of my life at todays prices will look pretty good in 5 or 10 years time.

before the fall, I found nothing of value but since the correction some stock trade at price I am willing to pay for long term outlook (10 years+) ... I actually sold a fair bit of stock before the fall so some of them I just get back cheaper

even though it is not cheap or bargain, it is a price I am willing to pay to hold long term and if need be I add more if the price keep sliding .... it hard to know where is the bottom so I start biting a little when I see the price is ok and average down.

that has always been my theme and I will continue to do so...Trading my surplus capital for passive income stream.

I mostly buy cash flow +ve business so it doesn't bother me too much about daily price movement knowing
I get my dividend comes Reporting season and it will be in business many years from now

and when it get hot, it is not if but when I start selling down and repeat the process.

What is with ya ROE, you love starting these threads (I like them), remember the "A great day to deploy capital" thread. I bought a few back then too, prices went well north from that time. It's all about buying future income for myself now, might go lower, might go higher but 7% current divies are hard to say no to. At todays prices even an ETF like VHY will pay you 6% gross distribution and you don't even have to monitor or pick the stocks with that one.

 

[kingink]

I bought into a couple of companies just before the dip yesterday... Hoping for the bounce back, but honestly I believe in what I bought so I'm not too fussed. Fingers crossed. Hahaha

 

[rimtas]

Can any of you guys see the possibility of a drawn-out slide with only small temporary relief rallies? And can you visualise what such an event might do to an averaged-down portfolio?

Yes, there is such a possibility, and it is greater now than ever, I can visualize it for you.
I do not know how to average down in this scenario, but people doing so only keep it doing while they are optimistic about the prices. At some point in the slide(usually in the middle), optimism shifts to pessimism and averaging down ends, the pain of keeping accumulating losses increases each day and finally they give up by selling everything close to a bottom or by switching off their laptop and trying to forget that they have an active (red)portfolio.

This scenario could last about two years from now, the level of bottom is not predictable at this stage, and even if it could be, it doesn't has any value for todays investor who is all in.

 

[kid hustlr]

All ords @ 1000 seems a little farfetched...

 

[galumay]

All ords @ 1000 seems a little farfetched...

Well it could be 7500 too, put a prediction wherever you like! To paraphrase my old man, it will either be higher, lower or exactly the same in 2016.

 

[McLovin]

All ords @ 1000 seems a little farfetched...

If the All Ords is at 1,000 then we have bigger problems than where the All Ords is.

 

[rimtas]

All ords @ 1000 seems a little farfetched...

I just used a long term 100 year trendline to determine that level, that's it, pure TA.

 

[rimtas]

Well it could be 7500 too,.

Yeas, it could be. When someone starts a question about stock market with words " can it go (up or down)...", the answer is always YES. Stock markets can be predicted only to probability basis, which can never ever be 100%. Probabilities can shift between 20/80, 50/50, or 80/20 or whatever ratio you would like.

 

[rimtas]

If the All Ords is at 1,000 then we have bigger problems than where the All Ords is.

Yes you are absolutely right. Stock market is a leading indicator, telling where the economy is heading. If ALL Ords crash to 1000, economy will collapse in response.

If it heads towards ATH, economy keeps improving greatly.

 

[rb250660]

We need the Elliott Wave people to tell us where it's going...