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KGN - Kogan.com Limited

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Kogan has recovered most of the price drops in April and is now back near its ATH. Obviously the market was expecting more from the quarterly update.

I think there is some more room to grow with Kogan, especially in the broadband and mobile market.

The devastating nationwide multiple outages of Telstra will continue to shift dissatisfied customers to carriers including the likes of Kogan where they have a terrific value proposition.

Not sure how well they will perform in health, life and pet insurance. But if past performance or history is an indicator with selling verticals to their "loyal followers and subscribers" to low cost models it may prove to be successful.

KGN is my top performer of the year with an avg price of $3.3, I am keen to sell but haven't held this for more than 12 months for the CGT discount.

will continue to monitor closely as i will sell if the fundamentals of the business changes.

Ruslan Kogan is a good operator/CEO, very involved and hands on in the business. Very smart guy heavily focused on data and analytics. It helps when he has a lot of skin in the game with over 66 million shares worth > $615 million.
 
A late announcement after the market closed today "Kogan.com to launch Kogan Mobile in New Zealand"

Kogan.com Limited (Kogan.com; ASX:KGN) has signed agreements with Vodafone New Zealand Limited (Vodafone) that will see Kogan.com offering telecommunications services in New Zealand.

Vodafone is the largest network operator in New Zealand followed by Spark, there is also less competition compared to Australia. Vodafone has circa 40% market share in NZ compared to 15% in Australia. There are circa 6.5 million mobile phone connections in New Zealand.

A very good story here, Kogan Mobile is growing at over 300% YoY in Australia, if marketed correctly Kogan.com has a very good growth story here in New Zealand. Kogan Mobile now accounts for over 12% of GOP for all total sales.
 
very disappointing after two positive announcements, poorly managed by the founders.

Stock has been hammered 16% in two days, may be a bit of an oversell reaction but doesn't give confidence to the market.
 
leyy said:
very disappointing after two positive announcements, poorly managed by the founders.

Stock has been hammered 16% in two days, may be a bit of an oversell reaction but doesn't give confidence to the market.
Click to expand...

This will probably break its upward trend. It's a pretty bad look to have a positive announcement then have the founders try and unload a large amount of stock and fail. It's pretty obvious they want to sell down a large chunk of their s/holding which is going to weigh on the stock. And the question is, why?

This was pretty good buy when it started going getting serious earnings momentum with a sp that was going to be really levered to any upgrade to the business' prospects.
 

Agree, it is a terrible look. It could of been executed and announced to the public in a more transparent way. Look at Appen (APX), where the founder/chairman sold off 15% of his holdings and how it was executed and announced to the public to maintain confidence in the underlying business.

I know that Ruslan shelled out $38.8 M for a mansion in Toorak/Melbourne in late April this year. There were queries on HOW Ruslan would pay for this purchase. Standard 45 day settlement of the property transaction would be about June to pay the balance of the property.

On another note, I will continue to hold but will monitor closely. I still believe the fundamentals of the business have not changed, just more of a PR disaster and bad execution from management. I guess only time will tell if they are able to maintain the current traction of growth and increase market share. Could be a good buying opportunity if you really look at it.

The founders Ruslan/David still have a 45.8% and 13.7% ownership of all outstanding stock which is some serious skin/stake in the game, even if they were to offload the suggested $100 M combined. It wouldn't be a bad thing if more stock was open to institutional/retail investors.
 
Gotta love the wording from their CoDI this morning

Kogan.com Limited (ASX: KGN, the Company) advises that Mr Ruslan Kogan and Mr David Shafer
received an unsolicited bid for 6,000,000 shares this morning. They have reluctantly accepted the bid due to personal financial commitments.
Click to expand...

Reluctantly accepted. OK.
 
hahahaha.... reluctantly accepted I bet.

I reckon they're also dumping quite a few in the open market. 6 million shares won't get them that $100 million they were after.
 
greggles said:
hahahaha.... reluctantly accepted I bet.

I reckon they're also dumping quite a few in the open market. 6 million shares won't get them that $100 million they were after.
Click to expand...

It's just a strange way to frame it. Shareholders don't care whether management's price expectations were met, beyond their "personal financial commitments" meaning more selling will follow. If they had got the price they were looking for would the announcement have said they "accepted with zest and delirium at the price achieved"?
 
I think it was a bit of attempted damage control after the news broke that Kogan and Shafer were out to sell their KGN shares into strength after a good announcement so they could get a better price. It looked greedy and opportunistic, which it was. So now they are downplaying the sale by saying that they did it reluctantly. It's all very transparent but I think they felt they had to do it. The ploy didn't work.
 
hopefully the SP can move forward from here on, since the selling has passed.

reviewing my stops and will probably sell if prices gets under $7.00 although the next real support is $6.25

its dropped 25% in less than a week so have given back a bit of my profits
 
I ended up accumulating more KGN at around $6.75 instead of selling.

Thought it was a much needed retracement before the next leg up.

I don't see how the fundamentals of the business have changed, yes the founders made a massive screw up with the share sales.

Only time will tell soon.
 
leyy said:
yes the founders made a massive screw up with the share sales.
Click to expand...
No. They made massive profits and are fantastic business men. Do you really think they give a shi7 whether everyone panics and starts selling the rediculously overpriced, great business becaus they do what any one with half a brain should do in that situation but doesn't normally have the balls?
They couldn't give a rats toss if the price went down to 4 which is about where it should be and is still great considering where it started.
They could just buy some more and contunue to run the thing as well as they do! No mistake what so ever.
It's still on a PE of about 60 at 6.88 where it is now. What kind of idiot was buying it at 9? Momentum traders? Well who, running a business for oneself and share holders gives shi7 about them?
This time one year ago it was trading at 1.60 something. investors in this company should have a statue of Mr Kogan in their living rooms!
 
Last edited:
Why should price be at $4? The pe is irrelevant, do you want a company growing earnings at 40% to trade on a FY19 pe of 15x?

Whether it was smart for the owners to sell down we won’t know for a couple years, there was a buyer for $42m worth of stock that thought it was a good deal.
 
Kogan: Revenue growth of 40% (YOY), EBITDA growth 90% (YOY) That's good isn't it?
Shares are being sold down and price has broken significant support.

 
Mr Bear said:
there was a buyer for $42m worth of stock that thought it was a good deal.
Click to expand...
They bagged a massive profit by floating a company for next to nothing.
That's a good deal. How blind do you have to be!?
Yeah 40% PE would be more appropriate and that's where it looks like it is going!
 
notting said:
They bagged a massive profit by floating a company for next to nothing.
That's a good deal. How blind do you have to be!?
Yeah 40% PE would be more appropriate and that's where it looks like it is going!
Click to expand...
What’s a 40% pe? It’s not a good deal to exit a business for less than its worth.. it’s subjective if you think it’s expensive why don’t you short it.
 
Last edited:
peter2 said:
Kogan: Revenue growth of 40% (YOY), EBITDA growth 90% (YOY) That's good isn't it?
Shares are being sold down and price has broken significant support.

View attachment 88514
Click to expand...
Results were under analyst expectations around 10-15% with no real explanation hence the massive drop.

Analysts were expecting around $26-$28m EBITDA , based on the 90% increase only brings FY EBITDA to $24.75m.

I guess I was wrong, I had a tight stop was stopped out at around $6.00 of my recent accumulation.

I have a feeling that the stock my drop a bit more as several brokers will re rate and downgrade valuations. Before it moves up again.

I will also be looking to sell out of my long term holdings , as I have given back far too much profits.

Would like to enter again when momentum changes.


Cheers
 
leyy said:
Results were under analyst expectations around 10-15% with no real explanation hence the massive drop.
Click to expand...

Now you have a bone to chew, almost looks like inside trading, but not quite.
Still a great result. If people thought it was worth where it was then they should be buying.
I didn't, let's see if it gets to 4.
I'd love to see people totally lose confidence in him over this, then watch him continue to run an awesome business.
If he hadn't sold I would of thought he was an idiot and lost confidence.
 
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