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Warning: ..... astrostuff ahead.
Hi folks,
Firstly, some general thoughts on trading IPOs, but
please note, this is NOT ADVICE, simply a discussion ...
-----
KBR ..... as with many ipo's, there will be many traders
wondering about the prospects of the company, ahead.
There's some advantages to trading new listings, if we
can get our market timing correct.
Some of these advantages, include:
1. Most (not all) ipos will have sufficient cash to fund their
operations, without rattling the tin for more money.
2. A relatively low number of shares on issue, making
the stock more volatile for trading purposes.
3. With better market timing, we have an edge over
other traders and "investors", as well as the
"blind stags", who are really only HOPING that
a stock will rally from the outset.
4. Using time cycle analysis, we can project anticipated
price swings, far ahead.
5. Time cycle analysis can result in entering stocks,
at prices below the original ipo.
-----
Of course, we must also look at the downside, too:
1. Sometimes, ipos are held so tightly, that liquidity
becomes a real issue ..... PSA was an example of this
and it took about 2 years to gain a larger shareholder
spread and improved liquidity for traders ..... but
meanwhile, it was fun to trade the sharp moves.
2. Being only newcomers, ipos can take a while to
become known to traders and even with good news,
it may take a couple of days for some traders to
respond, in some markets.
3. Often fundamentals have not developed enough
to make a good assessment of the management.
4. Technically, there's probably not enough data for
most chartists, until the first year has passed .....
..... meaning, that they may have lost several
opportunities to trade the stock, in the initial
12 months.
-----
Now by using Gann's methodology, we can forecast
many of the anticipated price swings by evaluating
the time axis only, on our charts.
Such methods are helpful, as:
1. Stags can gauge better exit points.
2. Traders can wait for the listing and often enter
at much lower prices, than the original ipo.
3. Chartists can use the time axis analysis to confirm their own
evaluations, using minimal data, like candlestick patterns.
4. Using time cycle analysis for ipos, allows us to
improve both entries and exits, in our trades.
5. “Investors” can use time cycle analysis, as confirmation of
their own conclusions, for both entries and exits.
In summary, IPO's are a classic example of where technical analysis
is all but non-existent, due to lack of data ..... and the fundamentals
are often exaggerated .....
..... step in, time cycle analysis or astroanalysis.
Call it what you will, these astrotools DO fill the technical void, until
there's enough data to give us a reasonable chart. Now back to our
new listing, KBR – a spin-off from Halliburton and some anticipated
swings in sentiment, until the October/November 2006, when KBR
is really expected to be in a positive trading mode .....
April 2006:
19 April 2006 ..... positive and finance-related ...???
28 April 2006 ..... minor news
May 2006:
10 May 2006 ..... 2 cycles here .... negative spotlight on KBR
15 May 2006 ..... significant negative news ..... ???
17-18 May 2006 ..... significant and aggressive rally ..... ???
22 May 2006 ..... minor
29 May 2006 ..... minor news ... ???
June 2006:
12 June 2006 ..... board changes ... ???
15 June 2006 ..... negative financial news ... low ???
16 June 2006 ..... significant and positive news ...???
July 2006:
05-06 July 2006 ..... significant and negative news/moves ... ???
10 July 2006 ..... minor
12 July 2006 ..... positive spotlight on KBR
August 2006:
08 August 2006 ..... significant and positive (finance???) news.
11-14 August 2006 ..... significant and negative cycle
22 August 2006 ..... significant and negative news ..... low ???
23 August 2006 ..... minor and positive cycle
29 August 2006 ..... significant and negative (finance???) news.
September 2006:
07 September 2006 ..... minor and positive cycle
12 September 2006 ..... minor and positive
22 September 2006 ..... minor and positive (finance???) news
25 September 2006 ..... minor
October 2006:
04 October 2006 ..... BIG and positive news here???
13 October 2006 ..... minor
16 October 2006 ..... minor
18 October 2006 ..... significant and positive news???
November 2006:
06-09 November 2006 ..... 2 cycles - significant & positive news ???
13 November 2006 ..... positive spotlight on KBR
21 November 2006 ..... aggressive rally here ... ???
happy trading
yogi
