JHG - Janus Henderson Group

[roland]

Seems like a new thread here.

A quick overview courtesy of Comsec:

Henderson Group PLC (HGG) is a financial services group that sells a range of products focused on asset management. The company is headquartered in London and is listed on both the Australian and London stock exchange. It is one of Europes largest investment managers with around 49.5b in assets under management as at Dec 08.

Of note, HGG have increased their holding of AMP to above 3%. I am little disappointed with current SP performance of HGG - were close on an all time low with the RSI heading into oversold territory.

Looking for a bounce here with the increasing volume.

 

[piggybank]

 

[piggybank]

Very surprised by the lack of comment on this stock given it's been on the rise since August 2012. It has also been mentioned at least weekly on the Foxtel Shares Show on the Money Channel.w.

2013 Full Year Results:- http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HGG&E=ASX&N=784998

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[Newt]

I'll probably regret saying it, but very tight ATR (price variation/volatility) for the steady gains its making too.......

 

[Apokolips]

HGG has been all over the place recently. Up and down like yoyo for real. I bought in a chunk today though, cuz I think a change is coming.

 

[pixel]

I think a change is coming.

The change may already be underway.
Compare Momentum Divergences in the lead-up to the pullback in June 2013 and earlier this month. Then see how long it has taken the price to break back above the previous resistance last July.

 

[pixel]

I'll probably regret saying it, but very tight ATR (price variation/volatility) for the steady gains its making too.......

"very tight": compared to what? In itself, the weekly variance has been rather steady around 5% +/-
pretty much on a par for "steady gainers". A high ATR is usually a sign of erratic fluctuation of the sp.



compare NST for example:

View attachment 57717

 

[piggybank]

HGG has been all over the place recently. Up and down like yoyo for real. I bought in a chunk today though, cuz I think a change is coming.

But at least it is going up and down in a channel. However as you will see, there has been a divergence in the MACD compared to the share price.

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Example of historical stock price data (top half) with the typical presentation of a MACD(12,26,9) indicator (bottom half). The blue line is the MACD series proper, the difference between the 12-day and 26-day EMAs of the price. The red line is the average or signal series, a 9-day EMA of the MACD series. The bar graph shows the divergence series, the difference of those two lines.

The Red line is the 250 DAILY EMA

What this could mean for the share price I don't honestly know but it will be interesting to see where it goes from here?

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[Newt]

"very tight": compared to what? In itself, the weekly variance has been rather steady around 5% +/-
pretty much on a par for "steady gainers". A high ATR is usually a sign of erratic fluctuation of the sp.

View attachment 57716

compare NST for example:

View attachment 57717

That's an elegant way of comparing and using to benchmark against other stocks. I'm always keen to find mathematical descriptions of what the eye does so easily with patterns. Thanks for sharing.

My original comment followed on from some work looking at ATR multiples above a lower supporting trendline for various stocks, along with the relatively small bar size for share price. Again, very subjective comments I understand. The ATR multiple above trend line I've found an interesting way of plotting the size of the montly/bimonthly momentum surges in price you often see in stocks rising like this - was hoping to develop a check to stop me entering more then 2-3 ATR above the lower trend - it can be psychologically hard holding another few months for price gains to pass previous resistance, as you've noted.

 

[Newt]

For example, by entering on 13/1/14 I managed to enter at an almost all time high above the lower trend of about 5-6 ATR multiples.

ATR(15) at that point around 10-12 cents.
Height above white (subjective) lower supporting trend line about 60 cents - that is about 5 x ATR

 

[pixel]

For example, by entering on 13/1/14 I managed to enter at an almost all time high above the lower trend of about 5-6 ATR multiples.

ATR(15) at that point around 10-12 cents.
Height above white (subjective) lower supporting trend line about 60 cents - that is about 5 x ATR

Further on that subject: I use much tighter ATR multiples to determine entries (blue arrows) and exits (red ones). I also find 15 periods badly lagging, especially when conditions change rapidly. OK, that can whipsaw me out at times, as happened for HGG in mid-2013 and again earlier this month. But there is a big advantage of using chart scripts like this: I can look back and find precedents that show me how often this happened in the past, how much - if any - I lost by applying a tight multiple, and whether a different parameter set would yield better profits for this particular stock.
Example: An Envelope using a multiple of 2 weeks rather than the standard 1.5 would have entered a little higher ($1.70), but we'd still be holding the investment:



Being more of a short-term trader, the loss of a few percentage points over several weeks rarely bothers me because I usually find stocks to trade with the freed-up cash more profitably during that time.

However, the envelopes can be applied efficiently for all styles and time periods; I even use them on short-term Intraday charts.

 

[Newt]

Thanks Pixel, great post.
I'm becoming more short term (moving from months to weeks) in my thinking as I learn more. A post by Peter F some time ago about confusing longer term trend versus shorter term momentum trading got me thinking.

I'm a Radge disciple of using systematic/mathematical logic on my share trading as much as possible.

Changing parameters per stock would have bothered me some time ago, but can see the logic in adapting to past price for a stock. Again, appreciate some insights into your timing technique. Its obviously one thing to find a universe of trending stocks, but another to enter and exit profitably in the market we've seen for last 18 months.

 

[Newt]

So effectively you're using Keltner channels for entry/exit conditions, but vary the number of SDs/ATR for bandwidth per stock?

I can see why you'd exit at May 2012, but not the entry in Sept. Presumably other criteria in play for entry and you DON'T want to be above the upper Keltner band for an entry to avoid buying too expensive?

 

[pixel]

So effectively you're using Keltner channels for entry/exit conditions, but vary the number of SDs/ATR for bandwidth per stock?

I can see why you'd exit at May 2012, but not the entry in Sept. Presumably other criteria in play for entry and you DON'T want to be above the upper Keltner band for an entry to avoid buying too expensive?

Indeed, there's more to my methodology. Before I add a stock to my watchlist, it has to display a reasonable prospect of bottoming out and coming off support with positive momentum. Those green "W" indicators give a hint.
Buy and Sell arrows are then triggered by candles that leave what you consider Keltner channels. They're similar, but not quite. Funny enough, I arrived at the concept via independent logic and backtested the efficacy over many stocks. Much later, I came across a script in a new charting package and found that Keltner had applied a similar logic.

 

[Newt]

Interesting, whereas traditional trend following will probably be looking to enter much later than you would. And by waiting for momentum off support you're hopefully not risking "catching a falling knife". Thanks for sharing. Again, interesting and thought provoking.

Good trading on HGG anyway - much nicer entry than mine!

 

[Knobby22]

Pleasing result today
Good company and a good way to avoid the problem of the falling $A.

 

[notting]

Having being destroyed Friday and today, it's looking a little like a blow off low.

 

[pixel]

Having being destroyed Friday and today, it's looking a little like a blow off low.

Possible, Notting, but definitely not yet a certainty.
There has been support around $3.75 in the past; and in November 2013, the rally enjoyed then has paused around the same level. However, there is only a less than 10% safety margin above the 2014 Low. Were that broken, Technicals suggest a continued fall towards $2.50 or even lower - Fibonacci Target could go to $2.10.



I'll wait another day or two before deciding whether to risk a Long position. It would really need a confirmed Higher Low to get me on board.

 

[Knobby22]

You are probably wiser than me.
Sold at $4.65 and bought back today at $3.85. I am expecting a rally in shares and Pound value which should get the price above $4.00.

 

[notting]

Possible, Notting, but definitely not yet a certainty.
There has been support around $3.75 in the past; and in November 2013, the rally enjoyed then has paused around the same level. However, there is only a less than 10% safety margin above the 2014 Low. Were that broken, Technicals suggest a continued fall towards $2.50 or even lower - Fibonacci Target could go to $2.10.


I'll wait another day or two before deciding whether to risk a Long position. It would really need a confirmed Higher Low to get me on board.

Yeh needs a strong finish and to get it's head above 4.
It will be interesting if the Brits and Euro can cook up something that will make it a Claytons exit. Give 'em back boarder control, then say, "Well, we are happy with all the other existing agreements, so chill dudes."