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Is there still $$$ in trading $$$? (or £,€ or ¥)?

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Milk Man

Milk Man

Joined
11 May 2005
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Hi Guys,

I was on the forums about a decade ago, before I embarked on a short but profitable stint in Forex. My method hit its "failure point" of 20% peak to trough drawdown, shortly after the GFC crash. Sucked. Balls. The method backtested at like 100%pa through amibroker (is that still a thing?), I was staking 2% of capital per trade through nick Radge's position sizing x stop loss method. I also only traded "positive carry", which looks like I can't do with major pairs now. I was up 80% on initial capital in 6 months, the GFC hit, then I lost 20% (of capital at peak); which hit my "tapout" point. Haven't done anything since.

My question is; is this doable nowadays? I know it's out there somewhere, but is it in forex, or something else? Should I just buy penny dreadfuls and ramp them to cabbies on Eagle St? Also, was I good or just lucky? Fire away!
 
Amibroker is still.around

Nick Radge is still around

FX is still around.

Maybe go back and backtest on Amibroker since and through GFC. Run through diff time frames walk through month to month etc.

I find can backtest over 10 yrs with stocks around 25%p.a., but at times it can do nothing for 2 or so yrs, ie peak to draw down back to new highs. Really tests out the psychology.

Interested to see your backtests since you stopped?
 
Do I want to see results? Yes and no. It's one of those "what if", "hindsight is 20/20" kind of deals. Either I was right by following the system rules, or I was right and developed a killer method . I may see where and why I was right and/or wrong by backtesting. I think I have to try. I'm 10 years more wise, so I now know that I don't know everything. Trouble is figuring out what I don't know, and learn it. Another issue is that there is so much BS in trading, that it's hard to sort the hay from the chaff.

As far as your systems go, maybe try to decipher which conditions it works under? Maybe try a moving average to act as a means to activate or deactivate your system? It may work in swing trading, or directional? High or low volatility? Is there logic for those indicators to work, or do they just look pretty on historical charts? 25% is good for stocks as far as I know, but probably not in big changes in dynamics by the sounds. I forget more than I used to know, so just some questions I think might help you dig something up.
 
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