Is our growth sustainable?

[young-gun]

came across these vids on youtube. raises some good points, thought some may be interested 8 part vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY&feature=relmfu

quite an interesting example in part 3 with bacteria in a bottle.

 

[Mr Z]

It is very true that there are very real limits to growth and we maybe be over reach with our current population. The optimists point too technology and the fact that developed economies tend to stabilize population growth as the answer. The pessimists point to Asia's growth ambitions and say we are simply strapped for resources and that it will result in war.

What else have you got to do other than hang around and see how it ends?

Ain't life grand?

 

[Smurf1976]

The planet is finite, that is a fact. Constant growth based on finite resources can't possibly be sustained. How long it can last is anyone's guess, but that it will end at some point is a given.

 

[danbradster]

I like the example of oil production peaking 20 years ago in America. It will happen with all resources before long...

In 20 years when half of China want a life style like Americans how will the world have resources for that? Assuming a stable 2% world growth, we'll consume as much in the next 35 years as we have in the entire world history.

With some resources' production having already peaked, imagine if we consumed double that again, there will be a lot more resources past their peak.

I'm holding a lot of resources. Does anybody have any good strategies for resources investing?

 

[young-gun]

I like the example of oil production peaking 20 years ago in America. It will happen with all resources before long...

In 20 years when half of China want a life style like Americans how will the world have resources for that? Assuming a stable 2% world growth, we'll consume as much in the next 35 years as we have in the entire world history.

With some resources' production having already peaked, imagine if we consumed double that again, there will be a lot more resources past their peak.

I'm holding a lot of resources. Does anybody have any good strategies for resources investing?

its scary..and quite amazing what growth rates of 1-7% result in. resource stocks? if they have big exposure to china(as most do) and china's beginning to slow......

the next boom nation will be india, but they're not quite ready yet...thats if we have the resources and energy left for them to boom

as stated in the video, it's all going to come to a head oh so suddenly, but by then will it be too late? probably...

 

[disarray]

reposting

 

[Tysonboss1]

I understand the concept and believe in the peak oil theory, However we should never under estimate humans abilty to innovate, problem solve and adapt and over obsticles.

In 30 years we will still be growing and thriving, there is plenty of scope for recycling, efficiency improvements, substituation, and new sources of resources.

Remember just because they say their is X number of reserves left does not mean that thats all that exists, there may be many times that amount left undiscovered, or that will become reserves at a later date when new technology means we can access it, or it may be able to be complete replaced by new things

In the 1800's Some one may have been concerned about the future of the steam engine because based on calculations there may have been only 50 years of coal reserves, However not only have very many sources of coal been discovered they way we use coal has grow much more efficent and also new technologies have replaced alot of the coal that would have been needed other wise.

 

[Tysonboss1]

For an example of how future tech can change dissaray's chart.

The chart states that we have 30 - 40 years of uranium left, if a tech such as the one bill gates is supporting comes through it would mean that the world could have an infinate supply of cheap energy, and with an endless supply of cheap energy any thing is possible.

 

[young-gun]

For an example of how future tech can change dissaray's chart.

The chart states that we have 30 - 40 years of uranium left, if a tech such as the one bill gates is supporting comes through it would mean that the world could have an infinate supply of cheap energy, and with an endless supply of cheap energy any thing is possible.

governments need to stop stuffing around and get on board with ideas and technology of this nature. if enough money and time is thrown at something it'll get there alot faster. i have no doubt there is 10's or even 100's of(plausable) ideas out there that scientists are currently working on, but these are probably decades away from actually providing sufficient energy to meet future demands. the fact is we're being lazy and ignorant, and i wouldnt be surprised if we started running out of essential resources before we had a new technology to replace it.

might aswell just sit back and wait for nuclear fusion

 

[Mr Z]

Human history is one of management by crisis, we will not get ahead of the problem willingly. The probabilities say we fight over resource and get innovative under the pressure of battle. Even now government will do all it can to lower the price of a critical resource like oil, in the process depriving the market of the price signal to get to work on the solving the problem. We like our leaders to do the wrong thing while it suits us and then when it goes wrong we like to string them up. Just look at Greece, where where the protests when the leader where digging the debt hole and handing out the borrowed sugar?

 

[Tysonboss1]

Human history is one of management by crisis,

I totally agree with that, each step along the way there will be shocks, but in the grand scheme of things we will over come each one and it will turn out to be an opportunity for those with a bit of investment nouse and a positive outlook to the other side of it.

There are plenty of ways to get around the oil problem, offcourse they won't happen till it really is a problem, but I look forward to it. It's going to be a great movie and very enriching for those with a rational view of the big picture.

 

[Smurf1976]

There are plenty of ways to get around the oil problem, offcourse they won't happen till it really is a problem, but I look forward to it. It's going to be a great movie and very enriching for those with a rational view of the big picture.

I agree with that statement although I must point out that it will take quite some time to bring about a major shift.

1. Develop the new technologies.

2. Tool up to start production. Even if we we came up with alternative vehicles (for example) tomorrow, it will be years before every major car manufacturer has tooled up to put it in every new vehicle. The use of petrol engines would thus continue to increase in the short term.

3. Time to actually roll it out. For vehicles that's 20 years. For things like major power stations we're talking 30 - 60 years.

Back in the 1990's there were still a lot of electric utilities trying to work out what to do with their 1970's (built as a result of investment decisions made in the 1960's) oil-fired power plants that had become a millstone around their necks. So in the 1990's, we were still very much stuck with the legacy of 1960's decisions.

Looking at Victoria (for example) virtually the entire energy supply (electricity, gas, liquid fuels) comes about due to investment decisions made between 1918 to the late-1980's (and in the late 80's it was simply the rubber stamping of a plan first approved in the mid-70's).

All this stuff is hugely long term. We'll find a way out I do expect, but it's not going to happen in less than a couple of decades and the pain in the meantime won't be pleasant. Sure, we'll make some progress fairly quickly. But what I'm saying is that it's going to take rather a long time to get around it fully.

It's worth considering that the SECV in Victoria was set up in 1918 specifically to develop local fuel resources (brown coal and hydro) and end the energy shortage then faced by Victoria due to frequent cut offs of coal supply from NSW. It was the early 1960's, more than 40 years later, when that goal was finally achieved with the construction of numerous brown coal, oil and hydro stations along the way. Things always look easy on paper but once you throw in some engineering difficulties, resource constraints (lack of fuel was always the problem in Vic) and a World War then it all gets rather difficult.

The Hydro in Tasmania ended up spending 17 years building a single dam for the same reason. It's hard building things when you've got no materials (forcing you to produce your own...), minimal labour, hardly any money and so on which is what happens in a major crisis. They then built another 50 over the next 40 years with comparative ease. Things get much, much harder to build in a time of overall crisis and this is one point that shouldn't be missed in this discussion. If we're going to develop alternatives to oil then it will be MUCH easier to develop them BEFORE we have a crisis.

 

[disarray]

For an example of how future tech can change dissaray's chart.

i totally agree on the potential of future tech, but as Mr. Z said ...

Human history is one of management by crisis

and

I must point out that it will take quite some time to bring about a major shift

but an even bigger handbrake on development will be vested interests wanting to maintain the status quo for as long as is profitable. meanwhile the population grows and resources dwindle.

 

[tothemax6]

Lol, why do people engage in these discussions?

Just accept that the future is going to be bad (and it is, and certainly not just because of energy needs), accept that you and others cannot and will not change it, shrug your shoulders, and think about something else.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Lol, why do people engage in these discussions?

Just accept that the future is going to be bad (and it is, and certainly not just because of energy needs), accept that you and others cannot and will not change it, shrug your shoulders, and think about something else.

The future is going to be great, in 20 years energy will be cheaper than it is now, and recycling systems will be ten times better,

The future will be better than the past,

 

[tothemax6]

The future will be better than the past,

Technology is always progressing. It cannot make up for social and political regression. Every man, be he in a hotel, in a slum, on a beach, in a war zone, knows that technology will be better in ten years. That doesn't mean his life will be.
Have you lived through a war, Tysonboss? How about a proper recession? Periods of high social discordance? No westerner your or my age has. Given the macro indicators (the most telling of all being geodemographic), it is quite a bet to make that these won't happen.

I can't really see how someone could conclude that the future is going to be better than the past, but I suppose that would be a 'blissful ignorance' superior to a 'resigned understanding'.
Anyway, as they say in the future of property prices thread, 'everything is sunshine, lolipops, rainbows and bubbles'.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Tothemax,.... It is interesting you ask that, yes I have seen the worst side of human nature, having spent 5 years as a soldier in an sf unit, I have lost a friend, sgt Brett till to an ied and another friend was permanently disabled by an ied( lost both hands and an eye), another incident in training left a guy dead and one with permanent damage to his arm, another friend was wounded an recently had a book published about him, another friend of mine was shot twice as he tried to rescue an American soldier who took a bullet an inch above his vest.

 

[tothemax6]

Tothemax,.... It is interesting you ask that, yes I have seen the worst side of human nature, having spent 5 years as a soldier in an sf unit, I have lost a friend, sgt Brett till to an ied and another friend was permanently disabled by an ied( lost both hands and an eye), another incident in training left a guy dead and one with permanent damage to his arm, another friend was wounded an recently had a book published about him, another friend of mine was shot twice as he tried to rescue an American soldier who took a bullet an inch above his vest.

Well in that case, yes your future will be relatively fine . The rest of us will find it rather uncomfortable.

 

[johenmo]

Unless our population growth plateaus or declines, no. Man will attempt to delay thorugh innovation, force, etc but we consume faster than we replace. Energy will never be free, for there is a cost of some sort to "make" energy (energy is neither created nor destroyed) & someone will want to profit from it.

Overconsumption will also have to be reigned in. This is very similar to the overpopulation thread.

 

[Dowdy]

Is our growth sustainable?

rephrase that to 'Is China's growth sustainable?' and give an answer

Whatever happens to China will effect us. If they boom/bust, so do we....