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Is cryptocurrency the greatest market bubble of all time?

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Value Collector said:
That kinda makes me said that we have so many young people wasting their productive years “investing” in this rubbish instead of getting into real productive assets.
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It's a generational mindset that rapidly gravitates to the latest popular tech craze with the additional lure of quick riches. Talking with many of my tech colleagues, I was surprised how many were into or had been into crypto mining and jumped into crypto "assets" as if it was free money to be had for the taking. No deep thought or analysis required, just rapid action to jump onto the crypto wave and ride it to instant wealth. Whip out your mobile, press buy on the FTX exchange and watch the money roll in. Just that easy and for a short while it was.

Those of us who questioned how these digital tokens could possibly be so highly valued and collectible and dared to challenge the glowing crypto narratives were mocked as out of touch boomers destined to stay poor. There is no real substitute for acquired knowledge and experience, this usually leads to making wiser choices in life especially when it comes to how you should invest your money. Unfortunately for millions of these newbie crypto "investors", they've learned a valuable lesson at great personal expense.
 
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I was literally laying in my easy chair on the patio enjoying the afternoon and reading the last chapter/epilogue in “The rise and fall of Allan Bond” which was printed in 1990 ( which I recently bought at a second hand shop for $4) and I picked up the phone to check the forum and saw your post.

This paragraph describing the 80’s I was reading shows that people going crazy is not a new thing, but in the end people that drift away from investing in true value will always end up blowing up.

 
I feel like a colour blind onlooker during the great Tulip bubble.

I just wish that Crypto would crash quickly to free up money for young investors to get involved in value markets.

gg
 
From the Peregrine website.



I haven't gotten to their Missionary Position yet.

gg
 
Craton said:
OTR is/was primarily in Sth Aust
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It's quite dominant in the retail petrol / diesel business.

Drive around Adelaide, find a random service station and the chance it's an OTR is substantial, there's a lot of them, they're a major operator.

Noting that they seem to have two modes of operation. Sites branded OTR with a small sign on the pump "fuels supplied by BP" and others which are BP branded, presumably a franchise arrangement, with the OTR sign on the shop.
 

December 2022 Newsletter: The World’s Money Problem​


Some interesting insights on crypto in this newsletter, the standout passage for me being...

"... the fortunes of the founders and early investors of the startup are usually tied in a significant way to the underlying fundamentals of the business that they built and financed. The company needs some revenue, some use-case, and to go through some degree of due diligence. They have to spend years building a company that either another company wants to buy, or that gets big enough and sticks around long enough to go public, with all of the necessary disclosures.

In the crypto world, it has been different. Founders and early investors can create a project, sell the coins publicly (generally to accredited investors or overseas to avoid public securities laws now, ever since there was a crackdown in domestic public initial coin offerings), work on it for a year or two or three, market it heavily, get it listed on a crypto exchange, and then dump the hyped-up coins (which likely are unregistered securities) on public retail speculators with exaggerated or outright false claims about the project’s level of decentralization and utility.

In other words, the founders and early investors can separate their own profits from the actual success of the project’s fundamentals. They don’t need to spend the better part of a decade building a business that is good enough for another business to want to acquire it, or that can go through the SEC’s process for entering public markets. They can just create hype and dump their coins on the retail public, for the sake of fast exit liquidity."

This model describes all but 3 crypto projects according to Alden.
 
LOL

66 BTC just went through at $16666 dropping by $66.

The Chinese cousins must be getting ready for another blood bath tonight.

gg
 
This example is how I see crypto.

Imagine you have a company like BHP, it currently has billions of dollars of assets, that are generating billions of dollars on behalf of its share holders, and it pays billions of dollars in dividends to shareholders, and reinvests some earnings back in building more assets to generate more returns in the future.

So we know that the net worth of all of BHP’s shares combined is in the Billions of dollars, so they trade in the market for a decent price reflecting the markets estimate of that value.

But,

Imagine if BHP sold all its mines and all of its assets, paid a huge final dividend to its shareholders of all the remaining cash and fired all its staff, closed its offices etc, disbanded its board.

Now each BHP share would be an empty shell with no assets, no cash, no staff, no offices etc etc. it’s just a piece of paper.

It would have no way of returning any real value its share holders ever again, so it’s shares would be rightly worth $0 per share.

But, this empty shell BHP share is basically what a bit coin is, people that try and tell you that crypto like bit coin have a value are basically saying that the empty bhp share has value, and we should all keep trading and buying it to get rich, because in the future some one else will by the at bhp share off you for a profit.

It you think it would be crazy to hold empty BHP shares, you should be able to see that the cryptos are exactly that, empty shells that can’t produce any value on their own.

Shares have value because they represent ownership interests in underlying assets or atleast a potential underlying asset in the case of startups.

Cryptos don’t have any underlying value, all they have is their hype value.
 
Great analogy VC and it's that non-existent asset backing or govt/bank guarantee that's the big issue. Unless the so-called stablecoin backing the underlying crypto coin has real asset backing (not just "pegged") well 'nuff said.
 
Value Collector said:
Cryptos don’t have any underlying value, all they have is their hype value.
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Keeping in mind that one of the many narratives around Bitcoin is that it has no central issuer so is not a security. Maximalists argue that Bitcoin does not fall into the "crypto" category for this reason to differentiate and disassociate Bitcoin from other projects. I concede there is a use case for Bitcoin in non-dollarized countries where there is rampaging inflation and currency debasement (assuming you can even convert your local fiat currency into sats). However, in countries like the U.S. and Australia, hoarding a highly speculative and volatile "digital asset" like Bitcoin as opposed to investing in other hard assets is financially reckless.
 
Even in those countries with rampaging inflation, unless you are worried about war or political trouble, holding some realestate is probably better than crypto.

Or if you are worried about even real assets in that destabilised nation, getting your wealth out and into a global share index or some other international investment would be my aim.
 
Another crypto scam - copied from Washington Post

More than half a million people who deposited money with collapsed crypto lender Celsius Network have been dealt a major blow to their hopes of recovering their funds, with the judge in the company’s bankruptcy case ruling that the money belongs to Celsius and not to the depositors.


The judge, Martin Glenn, found that Celsius’s terms of use — the lengthy contracts that many websites publish but few consumers read — meant “the cryptocurrency assets became Celsius’s property.”

And this was 6.2billion USD down to the drain
 
All is not lost crypto afficonadoes, Amazon comes to the rescue.
Jeff Bezos is about to unleash the AM2023X, Amazons all singing all dancing cryptocurrency.
Check it out at coin market news What could possibly go wrong.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
All is not lost crypto afficonadoes, Amazon comes to the rescue.
Jeff Bezos is about to unleash the AM2023X, Amazons all singing all dancing cryptocurrency.
Check it out at coin market news What could possibly go wrong.
Mick
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I reckon Jeff Bezos is the true mr evil of billionaires. He even looks the part.
 
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