Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Is a profit of 100% per year good enough?

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I joined the ASX Game and after 2.5 months, my profit is $50113. I am on position 3109 out of 12059 and as of today, 35.52% of players record a profit. While this is not really an accomplishment to be proud of, I am still in the first third of the herd and it's a confirmation that in the end, skill, knowledge and persistence triumph. I asked not long ago if the players who are in top 100 got there simply because they got lucky or do they have some skill or knowledge that make them special? I was interested about what strategies would any of the top 100 players employ. From the answers I received, people consider many of the players in these positions certainly had their share of luck, as well as doing trading more on the riskier stocks, which may see large swings up and down in their account. On one hand, Flow is maintaining a comfortable top position for many weeks and he/she is very consistent. I don't know who that player is and what his/her strategy is. But, at the moment I don't need to look too far to speak to one of the top 100 players. In fact, all I have to do is to speak with my wife :) After convincing her sometimes in March to join the game, which she reluctantly accepted, now she can teach me what the share market is all about... All her experience about the share market started a few years ago, when I lost a few thousands, and I did not impress her with that. In fact, she was getting really annoyed by me pronouncing such words as stock or market in the same sentence :) Apart for that, her experience was zero until two months ago. Anyway, after a rough start, when she lost over $2000 in the first few days, she started developing some own theories about why shares go up or down and she started using some very primitive methods of selecting the stocks. The market especially attracted her with the vast amount of money traded and she thought that even if a very small percentage of that could become hers, it would be a nice feeling :)
A bit of fundamentals, very little of technical analysis (she claims she does not understand momentum, so it must be a wrong theory, however she replaced the standard momentum with a different kind of momentum, that's really funny, but I can't disclose it) and more focus on feeling the emotions in the market. I don't know how she does that. Anyway, now she is in top 50 and she certainly got much further than I would have expected. I will be watching quite impatiently on what place will she land in the end. But based on results of the last few weeks, she seems to getting hold on this thing and it may not be impossible to reach in long term a profit of 10% per month, conservatively speaking :) She's definitely earned much more in the last month and the market was not spectacular... it is true it's only virtual money - but maybe some real money may be involved in the future. Anyway, she really applies herself and when she has time, she spends a long time near the computer and she got to know a lot about many of the companies in the game. She tends to be more of a day trader. She has some preferred companies, which she finds "predictable" and others she is not too pleased about, because she dislikes the fact the company does not have a clear strategy, or even worse, if a company releases a report with errors and has to release a corrected one :) And she is very reluctant from taking any advice from me - maybe on good reason :)

Nick
 
First of all, your paragraphing is not good enough in my opinion.

If your wife can reach 100% per year with real money consistently for a few years, with a scalable strategy/psychology with low drawdowns and risk of ruin then she will be a superstar trader. However I am getting the feeling that you got her return for 1 or 2 or 3 months and then extrapolated that to get 100% per year..correct me if I'm wrong and that she actually has virtual traded for 1 year ?

Most professional funds do not get anywhere to triple figure % return per year, so whether it is good enough or not is up to you. Does your other investments return anything near 100% pa ? If not, then I would suggest 100% is not only "good enough" but its fantastic..Keep us updated if your wife decides to trade real money, results will most likely be nowhere near her virtual results..
 
If you could screen shot the trades then we could see if they were/are real winners or not. I don't believe in this years market doubling your account is possible in reality.
 
First of all, your paragraphing is not good enough in my opinion.

If your wife can reach 100% per year with real money consistently for a few years, with a scalable strategy/psychology with low drawdowns and risk of ruin then she will be a superstar trader. However I am getting the feeling that you got her return for 1 or 2 or 3 months and then extrapolated that to get 100% per year..correct me if I'm wrong and that she actually has virtual traded for 1 year ?

Most professional funds do not get anywhere to triple figure % return per year, so whether it is good enough or not is up to you. Does your other investments return anything near 100% pa ? If not, then I would suggest 100% is not only "good enough" but its fantastic..Keep us updated if your wife decides to trade real money, results will most likely be nowhere near her virtual results..

Hi Minwa,

You are right, she only started trading in early March and only in the game organised by ASX. So, it's all just the virtual profit for the six weeks, extrapolated to a whole year. My comments were made in a funny note. As you said, it will most likely be a different matter with the added the stress of real losses and with market conditions different from now. However, I think that so far this is a significant result. We'll see if in the future she'll manage to stay on top of earnings.

Cheers,
Nick
 
If you could screen shot the trades then we could see if they were/are real winners or not. I don't believe in this years market doubling your account is possible in reality.

Hi Wysiwyg,

Her virtual trades started in March this year and despite her losses in the beginning, she reached (at the moment) a top 50 place in the game. We'll see how far she'll get by the end of the game and later, in future games.
I'll ask her at the end of the game to make a copy of her transactions.

Nick
 
Great if you can consistently do it with your money, you soon join the billionaire club with 10% return a month.
not many people on the planet can generate that sort of return
but sometimes people confuse luck for skill in a virtual game

I played those game every so often and was actually in the top 10 at some stage but I was just betting all over the place :) but when I invest it is a different story
 
The last time I "traded" a demo account the balance increased over 50% within my first 20 minutes of "trading". However, I have never achieved anything like that sort of return whilst trading live (nor would I ever expect to do so). It's terribly easy to "trade" boldy when there is no financial impost from failure.

Please note that I have intentionally used quotation marks around the words trade, traded and trading in the above paragraph to emphasize the point that no trades actually took place. Nothing was truly exchanged as there were no assets (e.g. money,securities etc.) in contention, nor were there any counterparties to the transactions!

In effect demo/game trading isn't actually trading and it would be a serious error to presume otherwise!
 
I saw the title of the thread and went and got a chair and some popcorn. This is gonna be fun!
 
The last time I "traded" a demo account the balance increased over 50% within my first 20 minutes of "trading". However, I have never achieved anything like that sort of return whilst trading live (nor would I ever expect to do so). It's terribly easy to "trade" boldy when there is no financial impost from failure.

Please note that I have intentionally used quotation marks around the words trade, traded and trading in the above paragraph to emphasize the point that no trades actually took place. Nothing was truly exchanged as there were no assets (e.g. money,securities etc.) in contention, nor were there any counterparties to the transactions!

In effect demo/game trading isn't actually trading and it would be a serious error to presume otherwise!

Let me tell you Mr Cynic,
I put $8500 in the real market after watching the financial news on tv four days in a row, with the view to sell within one or two days. I sold a few month later, at a loss of over 30% of that amount.
But when I "trade", I am much more careful not to lose money, after all, I have a public reputation to hold. Anyway, maybe I will start trading for real in 2015. After all, we all know trading is more profitable in the years ending in 5, especially compared to the years ending in 0 or 7.

Cheers,
Nick
 
if you start with $10,000 double it every year for next ten year you'll get $10,240,000
if you start with $100K same rate same 10 years, you'll get $102,400,000.

Don' tknow if that's a good enough though :D
 
Let me tell you Mr Cynic,
I put $8500 in the real market after watching the financial news on tv four days in a row, with the view to sell within one or two days. I sold a few month later, at a loss of over 30% of that amount.
That's great! You'll definitely understand what I'm talking about then!

So it took you months to lose approximately $3k!

I once managed to lose the AUD equivalent of $110K in a sinlge day!
But when I "trade", I am much more careful not to lose money, after all, I have a public reputation to hold. Anyway, maybe I will start trading for real in 2015. After all, we all know trading is more profitable in the years ending in 5, especially compared to the years ending in 0 or 7.

Cheers,
Nick
Is it? Wouldn't the counterparties to the losing traders make money in those years?
 
That's great! You'll definitely understand what I'm talking about then!

So it took you months to lose approximately $3k!

I once managed to lose the AUD equivalent of $110K in a sinlge day!

Is it? Wouldn't the counterparties to the losing traders make money in those years?

I am not sure if I should feel sorry for you or if I should envy you :)
The fact you're still alive and kicking, means you sort of recovered after that black day.
Can I ask you one question? Are you using a stop loss point now in your transactions? Because I assume you were not using one when you lost 110k...

You're right, only the long investors would be in advantage trading in 2015.

Nick
 
if you start with $10,000 double it every year for next ten year you'll get $10,240,000
if you start with $100K same rate same 10 years, you'll get $102,400,000.

Don' tknow if that's a good enough though :D
Yeah, if you put it that way, doesn't sound too bad.

On the other hand, 10% per month is only 0.33% / day. How many of us are satisfied with making a profit of 0.5% for the day? I know, consistency is also important, if we only could get this profit day after day...

Nick
 
I am not sure if I should feel sorry for you or if I should envy you :)
The fact you're still alive and kicking, means you sort of recovered after that black day.
Can I ask you one question? Are you using a stop loss point now in your transactions? Because I assume you were not using one when you lost 110k...

You're right, only the long investors would be in advantage trading in 2015.

Nick

On the night in question the circuit breakers triggered causing a premature exchange closure. Nothing but nothing would allow me to exit my open positions until the exchange reopened the following day!!!

These are the sorts of realities that demo/game traders are unlikely to fully appreciate until they trade a real market with real money!
 
On the night in question the circuit breakers triggered causing a premature exchange closure. Nothing but nothing would allow me to exit my open positions until the exchange reopened the following day!!!

These are the sorts of realities that demo/game traders are unlikely to fully appreciate until they trade a real market with real money!

Yes, that's something really to be kept in mind!
I just found some good information which claims the Value Line strategy offers very good returns and as presented on the web site http://www.valueline.com/About/Ranking_System.aspx, the returns of the good stocks, as indicated by the method, reached gains of over 30% per year. I wonder if anybody here applies such a strategy, it appears to be excellent - and from the book of Victor Neiderhoffer, Practical Speculation, there are real people who became multimillionaires by applying this strategy. And it seems we don't need to subscribe to any sites for the information, we should be able to pick the good stocks by ourselves.

The more I read all kind of books, the more I wonder how come we aren't all millionaires? Or, maybe I should speak just for myself? :)

Nick
 
After all, we all know trading is more profitable in the years ending in 5, especially compared to the years ending in 0 or 7.

Cheers,
Nick

Is this some kind of new magic? :) because 5 usually lead to hi five where the other number dont rhyme as good ?

Heroes to zero
and seven sound like the seven deadly sins
 
Yes, that's something really to be kept in mind!
I just found some good information which claims the Value Line strategy offers very good returns and as presented on the web site http://www.valueline.com/About/Ranking_System.aspx, the returns of the good stocks, as indicated by the method, reached gains of over 30% per year. I wonder if anybody here applies such a strategy, it appears to be excellent - and from the book of Victor Neiderhoffer, Practical Speculation, there are real people who became multimillionaires by applying this strategy. And it seems we don't need to subscribe to any sites for the information, we should be able to pick the good stocks by ourselves.

The more I read all kind of books, the more I wonder how come we aren't all millionaires? Or, maybe I should speak just for myself? :)

Nick

Just randomly throwing darts to pick stocks, a strategy called NASA Monkey, also delivered portfolio returns over 30% in a given year over the last twenty years. It can be applied to Australian stocks or global stocks in developed or emerging markets. You can use the NASA Monkey method to build concentrated or diverse portfolios. All of these yielded returns which reached in excess of 30% in any year in the history of the strategy. As did doing nothing but buying an index ETF or index fund from Vanguard.

Do you actually know what happened to Neiderhoffer? Not to say he is stupid or anything like it, because he is not.

You probably should speak for yourself on the books thing. Here's a true story:

In the hamlet of NASA where there were 1,024 NASA Monkeys, the King called all able bodied citizens to a tournament. Each was given a coin. It was sudden death. The king said "toss!" and all loyal subjects tossed. Anyone who got heads moved on to the next round. Any who "Failed" were eliminated and watched the tournament from the trees, sometime hurling excrement at the remaining participants. After maybe ten rounds, a monkey won the tournament, throwing 10 heads in a row. A total freak event. A one in a thousand.

This monkey was renamed Prince NASA Monkey after receiving a peerage. The rest of the citizens in the hamlet basked in his glory, stunned by his ability to toss 10x Heads in a row when none others could. The King gave him land, a mansion, horses and a fair (for a monkey) maiden as a wife. Amazon got in touch after hearing about his fame via Twitter. They offered the Prince a book deal. A few months later, a new book hit the shelf called "Coin Toss Momentum - A path to riches". It was a best seller as it promised the prospect of doubling your profit at each step. The author had done so, so others clearly could too. Strangely, those who bought the book and tried it out largely failed to repeat the outcome although about one in a thousand did manage to. Furthermore one reader even got 12x in a row and got interviewed on Today on NBC, hailed as the next Prince. But he went on to set up a $1 bn hedge fund where the cry of "Get me my f%$cking banana" could be heard across the trading floor at regular intervals.

Every trader was honed to flick coins in every method possible. Left, right, on the elbow, bounce of the foot, spinning on nose. These were Rock Stars. Strangely the performance of BananaCoin Asset Management was pretty average over the long term although it had spikes of great performance and poor performance along the way. Nonetheless, even when the fund shut after an unlucky streak - including a bout of market closure for circuit breaking where $110 million was toasted - he went on to write "Education of a Coin Tosser" which became a best seller.
 
Just randomly throwing darts to pick stocks, a strategy called NASA Monkey, also delivered portfolio returns over 30% in a given year over the last twenty years. It can be applied to Australian stocks or global stocks in developed or emerging markets. You can use the NASA Monkey method to build concentrated or diverse portfolios. All of these yielded returns which reached in excess of 30% in any year in the history of the strategy. As did doing nothing but buying an index ETF or index fund from Vanguard.

Do you actually know what happened to Neiderhoffer? Not to say he is stupid or anything like it, because he is not.

You probably should speak for yourself on the books thing. Here's a true story:

In the hamlet of NASA where there were 1,024 NASA Monkeys, the King called all able bodied citizens to a tournament. Each was given a coin. It was sudden death. The king said "toss!" and all loyal subjects tossed. Anyone who got heads moved on to the next round. Any who "Failed" were eliminated and watched the tournament from the trees, sometime hurling excrement at the remaining participants. After maybe ten rounds, a monkey won the tournament, throwing 10 heads in a row. A total freak event. A one in a thousand.

This monkey was renamed Prince NASA Monkey after receiving a peerage. The rest of the citizens in the hamlet basked in his glory, stunned by his ability to toss 10x Heads in a row when none others could. The King gave him land, a mansion, horses and a fair (for a monkey) maiden as a wife. Amazon got in touch after hearing about his fame via Twitter. They offered the Prince a book deal. A few months later, a new book hit the shelf called "Coin Toss Momentum - A path to riches". It was a best seller as it promised the prospect of doubling your profit at each step. The author had done so, so others clearly could too. Strangely, those who bought the book and tried it out largely failed to repeat the outcome although about one in a thousand did manage to. Furthermore one reader even got 12x in a row and got interviewed on Today on NBC, hailed as the next Prince. But he went on to set up a $1 bn hedge fund where the cry of "Get me my f%$cking banana" could be heard across the trading floor at regular intervals.

Every trader was honed to flick coins in every method possible. Left, right, on the elbow, bounce of the foot, spinning on nose. These were Rock Stars. Strangely the performance of BananaCoin Asset Management was pretty average over the long term although it had spikes of great performance and poor performance along the way. Nonetheless, even when the fund shut after an unlucky streak - including a bout of market closure for circuit breaking where $110 million was toasted - he went on to write "Education of a Coin Tosser" which became a best seller.

True story? That sounds really interesting! Never heard of a book written by a monkey before! And how did he manage to throw so many heads in a row? That requires some serious skill! So, where can I buy this book? :)

I've heard about Neiderhoffer going bust about three times. I still consider he knows a lot more than myself in the field and there is something good to learn from him and he probably lost more than I'll ever earn :) After all, he is one of the monkey who lost after nine successful coin throws in a row :)

About the value line - maybe somebody already put this to test - at the moment I believe there is much more chance a strategy that proved to be successful 95% in the last 30 years to continue to be successful, than a strategy where it's enough to test for one year of past data and it already fails.

Nick
 
Is this some kind of new magic? :) because 5 usually lead to hi five where the other number dont rhyme as good ?

Heroes to zero
and seven sound like the seven deadly sins

ROE, don't laugh please! I read it in a book, so it must be true!
 
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